Why Modi sarkar is desperate for peace with Pakistan
In the blow hot, blow cold narrative that marks India-Pakistan relations, it’s clear for now that regardless of the strident remarks, including invocation of the K-word (Kashmir) by Pakistan on July 13, the Modi government is keen to smoke the peace pipe with Pakistan and wouldn’t like the talks derailed.
The re-engagement with Pakistan was envisaged in the joint statement following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif on the margins of the BRICS summit in Ufa, Russia on July 10. The statement also said Modi had accepted the Pakistan prime minister’s invitation to visit Pakistan for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit next year.
The statement appeared to signal the beginning of a thaw in bilateral ties between the two nuclear-armed neighbours - until the Pakistan prime minister’s adviser on national security and foreign affairs, Sartaj Aziz, appeared to put a spanner in the works on July 13, that is barely three days after the Modi-Sharif meeting.
Apart from insisting that no talks can happen without Kashmir being on the agenda, Aziz also said that India needed to provide “more evidence and information” on the Mumbai attacks case.
The pithy joint statement in Ufa - drafted by the foreign secretaries of the two nations in about half-an-hour while seated on a sofa in a corridor at the meeting's venue - in a departure from the past intriguingly made no specific mention of Kashmir though it did talk about "outstanding issues".
Sources here noted that India did acknowledge that Kashmir is an “outstanding issue” between the two countries though the fact that it did not find mention in the joint statement "seemed a good formulation".
Among other things, the statement said the national security advisers (NSAs) of the two countries would meet “to discuss all issues connected to terrorism” and envisaged an early meeting of the director general of the Border Security Force (BSF) and director general of the Pakistan Rangers, followed by the DGMOs (Director-General Military Operations) discussing the state of the boundary.
Apart from Kashmir, Aziz also raked up the issue of the Samjhauta Express trial and accused India of “continuing support for insurgency in Balochistan”.
So are Aziz’s remarks a swift U-turn by the Sharif government just days after the Ufa meeting? And had the outcome of the Sharif-Modi meeting where the Pakistan prime minister had even cracked some self-deprecating jokes to break the ice come to nought with Aziz’s remarks?
New Delhi, for now, would rather not see it this way and remains optimistic about the course of future bilateral ties. “We haven’t even begun our conversation. The Pakistanis haven’t even done a first turn so where is the question of a U-turn,” (sic) said sources in response to Aziz’s remarks. Indeed, keen to downplay the remarks in order that they do not cast a shadow as New Delhi seeks to mend ties with Islamabad, sources further said that Aziz only stated his country’s long-standing position and this doesn’t necessarily mean they were said in Ufa.
The sources further said that the meeting in Ufa between the two prime ministers was one that discussed, “where we’re going to go and we’re still two-three steps removed from that”. But perhaps the most telling statement was this: “Nothing that Sartaj Aziz has said affects the actionable propositions we have. So the idea that he said something, everything will come to a grinding halt. We don’t say that.”
There is also an unstated acknowledgement within the official establishment here that in making this statement, the Nawaz Sharif-led Pakistan government was catering to the expectations of its domestic constituency.
Aziz’s demand for more evidence for the prosecution of the likes of Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, the alleged mastermind of the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, is also being seen as a setback for New Delhi after the joint statement had “agreed to discuss ways and means to expedite the Mumbai case trial, including additional information like providing voice samples”.
It’s learnt that there was a fair amount of discussion on Lakhvi during the Modi-Sharif meeting with India keen to see “progress in some way on the Lakhvi trial” and to “see how we can take the Mumbai (terror attacks) trial forward”.
For now, New Delhi is keen to see the joint statement as the leitmotif for the course the bilateral ties will take in the coming months. The statement, drafted by foreign secretary S Jaishankar alongwith his Pakistan counterpart Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry was described by sources as one that “captures the main points of discussion during the (PMs) meeting” and “a considered, honest, accurate, reasonable summary of the substance of the meeting”.
Unwilling to see Aziz’s remarks as a spoiler as the two countries seek to move ahead in their bilateral relations, the Modi government is hopeful that a meeting of the two countries' NSAs slated to be held in New Delhi will take place soon.
The proposed meeting of the DGMOs followed by that of the DG, BSF and DG Pakistan Rangers is expected to see a substantive discussion on the “state of the boundary”.
The decision to release from custody fishermen from each other’s country and have a mechanism that would facilitate religious tourism were other takeaways from the Modi-Sharif meeting.
With Islamabad already having raised doubts about its willingness to walk-the-talk just days after the two prime ministers met, New Delhi will be keeping its fingers crossed and hoping for positive outcomes if Modi is to visit Pakistan next year.