This Diwali is special, Modi breaking India-China ties
India is celebrating Diwali today. "Patriotic" Indians are buying India-made lights and crackers, even paying 30 to 40 per cent more than they would for the Chinese equivalents. The festival of lights signifies the victory of good over evil and of light over darkness. However, this year, the festival is turning out to be a parade of patriotism and a scary show of strength vis-à-vis neighbouring Pakistan and China.
A Pew Research Centre report, which came out in September 2016, confirms that most Indians are seriously worried about the growing China-Pakistan friendship. This is not a new development. Bilateral cooperation between the two countries has been travelling in an ascending trajectory for past 65 years since they established their formal diplomatic relations on May 21, 1951.
China describes Pakistan as its only “all-weather strategic cooperation partner” and has openly described the Chinese-Pakistani friendship as “sweeter than honey” and “stronger than steel”. Pakistan is not only the largest recipient of investment from China, it is also the largest recipient of Chinese arms.
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| Besides support from the Islamic world, Pakistan now has absolute backing from China to confront India. (Credit: Reuters) |
Since Rajiv Gandhi’s historic lengthy handshake with Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in December 1988 in the Great Hall of the People in the centre of Beijing, India was developing a mutually-beneficial relationship with China through continued high-level dialogue, increasing economic and commercial ties and regular people-to-people exchanges. However, under the Modi regime, the relationship between the two countries with the two largest populations in the world is worsening rapidly and the mutual suspicion is probably as great is it has ever been.
Since coming to power, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not left any chance to ruffle Chinese feathers. He invited the prime minister of the Tibetan government in exile to his inauguration knowing very well that it will annoy China considerably.
That did not stop Modi and he even publicly criticised China when he went to Japan in September 2014. In spite of a series of provocations, the Chinese leadership had hoped that Modi will continue the previous UPA government policy of balancing ties between the US and China. But that was not to be.
Modi, in his blind pursuit of making India the leading global power and ignoring the geo-strategic reality, has gone ahead in pursuing a closer relationship with the United States in the assumption that it will put Delhi in a stronger position vis-à-vis Beijing. The signing of the LEMOA, increased cooperation with the US Navy in patrolling Indian Ocean and direct confrontation with China over the NSG membership have not made India any more powerful, rather, these steps by the Modi government have made the archenemy Pakistan stronger by bringing it closer to China.
The UPA government’s policy of balancing ties between US and China had forced China to maintain a balance of its ties between India and Pakistan. A radical change of foreign policy direction by Modi by going all the way in cozying up to the United States has left China with no other option but to go all out in its support to back Pakistan openly.
After Uri attacks, India’s attempts to diplomatically isolate Pakistan too have not achieved any success, rather the overt obsession has helped the enemy regain open support from some of its old friends.
Modi government’s failure to bring peace and normalcy in Kashmir has forced most of the Islamic countries to openly back Pakistan. Besides, the support from the Islamic world, Pakistan now has absolute backing from China to confront India.
The strengthening of China-Pakistan axis in the region has serious implications, particularly when tensions between India and Pakistan are hitting a boiling point. For political gains. Modi decided to openly boast the success of Indian Army’s post-Uri revenge "surgical strike". This has failed to browbeat Pakistanis to submission. Rather, since then cross-border firing between Indian and Pakistani forces has become a regular feature. Even on the eve of Diwali, an Indian soldier has not only been killed inside Indian territory, but also beheaded.
Given continued provocation from the Pakistani side, there are not many options available for Modi to react in a politically surcharged post-"surgical strike" period. The way he and his party colleagues have stirred up the nationalist fervor in the country, unless the situation changes dramatically, the two countries could even go through another war against each other in the near future. A war between India and Pakistan will be first ever direct war between two nuclear-armed states and this, in itself, holds a devastating prospect.
However, in the case of a war between India and Pakistan, it is highly unlikely that China will stay out of it. Modi’s impulsive foreign policy adventurism has brought the strategic interests of China so close to Pakistan that it is a real possibility India may have to fight a two-front war against Pakistan and China simultaneously. As if fighting a war with one nuclear-armed country was not risky enough.
In March this year, the vice chief of the Indian Air Force, air marshal BS Dhanoa, had openly admitted that India will not be able to fight a two-front war involving Pakistan and China. If Modi has decided to confront Pakistan, the smart strategy would be to do all he can to maintain and promote a healthy relationship with China.
Instead, Modi is doing what he could to infuriate China further. Inviting the US ambassador to visit Arunachal Pradesh and allowing Dalai Lama to visit that state early next year are nothing but hotheaded steps in that direction. In addition, his party colleagues are openly calling for boycotting Chinese goods.
Given the nerve-racking situation on its border in the face of strengthening the China-Pakistan axis, there is nothing for India to celebrate the festival of lights this year. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in pursuing a tactless foreign policy has made this Diwali a special one, not for India but for Pakistan only.