Larger implications of Modi meeting Putin in Sochi for informal summit
When nothing else works, we invoke our “historical” ties and “deep-rooted” friendship. In these changing global dynamics, India has set out to realign her interests and balance her ties with the West and the East.
India is now engaging with leaders in the region with long-term political stakes. After Chinese president Xi Jinping’s re-election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held his first “informal” meeting in Wuhan and now the second meeting comes after Russian president Putin was re-elected in May 2018. The permanence of these two leaders is more important than the ephemeral relations with leaders who are more likely to changing their position.
The uncertainty of dealing with the Trump administration and the certainty of the China-Russia-Pakistan axis made this move absolutely critical to safeguard India’s own interests in the region and the neighbourhood.
A “no set agenda” sort of a meeting allows the leadership to have freewheeling conversation about various issues. Sources say, “global” and “regional” issues will be at the forefront of the talks in Sochi.
While the informal set-up with no note takers will allow the leadership to have a frank discussion, for India it would be an opportunity to highlight the importance of a continued “strategic” cooperation and drive home the point that any “real” defence cooperation between Russia and Pakistan could hamper the long-standing and rather profitable setup that it has in India.
The AfPak region and counter-terrorism efforts will surely come up when the leaders meet. Again, while India knows that China will never choose India over Pakistan, it is time to ensure that Russia remains on India’s side and there is no shift in the larger policies that may require support for India at international fora such as the United Nations.
India and Russia have been close partners and are on the same page on many issues such as the West Asian crisis, the Syrian conflict, Iran, North Korea and the US' withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. The changing global scenario is the reason why these countries are coming together to find consensus on “rule-based order” that has been upended by Washington.
Not only is India doing it, the Russian president has had separate meetings with German chancellor Angela Merkel as well. Withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA, for the Iran Nuclear deal) will have huge ramifications for not only the region but also the whole of Europe.
It is now time to consolidate that position to become a formidable bloc for the international community. Right now, it is not about being non-aligned; aligning on causes is what India is seeking.
All these leaders need one another for some issue or the other that hits the domestic audience and for Modi, it is important to rediscover its old allies to show some forward movement on the foreign policy front before India goes to the polls in 2019.