Gujarat Assembly elections: What BJP has that Congress doesn't
With every passing day, the air around Gujarat elections is getting clearer, the narrative is shifting and new partnerships are emerging. To say that this election will have a huge bearing on the 2019 general elections is no exaggeration. If the Congress manages to topple BJP's apple cart in Gujarat, the party's citadel, it would send tremors across political corridors.
A win here will revive the sagging fortunes of the Congress as it prepares for the upcoming battles in Karnataka (where Siddaramaiah is trying his best to beat anti-incumbency with regionalism) and then to BJP strongholds of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. A victory or a loss here for both BJP and Congress will have a bearing on the 2019 polls.
The Congress has all the reasons to be upbeat. The coming together of Alpesh Thakor, Jignesh Mevani and Hardik Patel in the Congress' fold has turned the caste calculus in the party's favour. The shifting caste calculus, increasing anger against the monumental mismanagement and double blows of demonetisation and GST, joblessness among youth and helplessness among the weaker sections of society, could all give the Congress a huge leg-up ahead of the Gujarat Assembly election.
Congress lacks organisational strength
In today's Gujarat three is a company. The three young turks, commanding the support of their respective caste groups, have turned the game against BJP. Coupled with aggressive campaigning by party vice-president Rahul Gandhi in the state, this shift could prove deleterious for the BJP, which is looking for a sixth straight victory in the state. BJP has double anti-incumbency to handle. But the real task before the Congress is maintaining the momentum created by a series of rallies and social media campaigns.
It's a fact that years of being out of power have weakened the Congress' organisational machinery. From corporations to cooperatives, BJP has an advantage in access to financial resources and an organisational model that has been perfected over these two decades. And nothing can match the political magic Prime Minister Narendra Modi has woven over these two decades and the micro-level strengthening of the organisational structure that has been handcrafted by Modi and BJP president Amit Shah.
BJP follows a "page pramukh" concept, under which a person is made responsible for a list of voters assigned to him. Every pramukh is supposed to reach out to these voters and cajole them into becoming a party supporter. Over a period of time, the BJP has strengthened its organisational structure and expanded its footprints, even among the communities considered loyal to the Congress. Despite the Congress being the principal Opposition, it is organisationally too weak. In contrast to this is the agile and responsive organisation of BJP that has managed to counter every allegation ever raised against Modi and build a national narrative for him.
The question that thus arises is at a time when the traditional voter base of the BJP - Patels and small traders - is showing signs of alienation from the party, is the Congress party's organisation prepared to take advantage of this drift and the anti-incumbency that has accrued? At a time when Gujaratis are pouring out in huge numbers to listen to Rahul Gandhi, can the momentum be sustained till the polling dates or is the Congress ready for the day when it would be facing a numerically advantaged army of BJP volunteers, well-trained in booth management?
The youth and first-time voters
The first-time voters of Gujarat have never seen Congress in a commanding position. They don't know what the Congress stands for or what its plans are. The BJP has enjoyed youth support, and over the years it has consolidated its control over the young voters. Even at a time when the Patel anger is at its zenith, BJP finds solace in the fact that it can rely on youths.
In 2012, when Keshubhai Patel floated his own outfit, Gujarat Parivartan Party, despite being the tallest Patel leader, he could only garner 3.6 per cent vote share. Anticipating this possible shift in votes, Modi had set the BJP campaign on to a different tangent, shifting from Gujarati pride to youth aspirations. As a result youths back Modi. Though Rahul Gandhi has made joblessness his major poll plank, the Congress lacks a credible face in the state, which the youth can look up to for answers. There is no denying that the BJP has become the natural face of governance in the voters' psyche and it will be a tall order for the Congress to break its Gujarat jinx.
There might be palpable angst among the youth and other sections in Gujarat against BJP, but Congress lacks the organisational depth to turn this angst into votes. This could make BJP the only option for the voters.
The Congress' caste calculus may also fail in that case. It cannot rely much on Patidar votes. If Keshu Bhai couldn't in 2012, can Hardik Patel make a difference in 2017? I doubt. The Gujarat unit of BJP is no stranger to Patidar anger, but would Patidars choose Congress, which had upset the community, who feel they were displaced by Kshatriyas as the ruling elite under the dispensation of Madhav Singh Solanki in 1985. This had triggered a long spell of riots in the state, intermittently from 1981 to 1985.
This feeling of alienation drifted Patidars away from the Congress into the BJP fold. Almost 30 years and Congress hasn't been able to capture the Patidar imagination. Patidars are angry with the BJP, but whether they will choose their perpetual bête noire Congress, will only unfold on December 18.
This election will definitely be remembered as a time when the Congress got out of its slumber and rebuilt its social coalitions from scratch, created an alternate narrative and made Gujarat elections a 50-50 game. But in a state like Gujarat, where BJP is strong and has strength to reach almost every household of the state, anti-incumbency and rainbow coalitions, may not help much. Though the BJP seems to be getting weaker, it would take far more than weaving an alternate political narrative to defeat it and then there is the Modi factor that can turn the tide in the party's favour. Congress needs more than just words and tweets in Gujarat. It direly needs to make the best of whatever organisational structure it is left with.
But if the Congress manages to achieve a victory here, 2019 will be worth a watch.