Exit Polls Results: The hits and misses of Indian exit polls!
Exit polls have been bang on target on some occasions, while on others, they haven’t by a long shot. We recapture the best exit poll moments in recent political history!
The accuracy of exit polls has always been a point of contention. The most accurate exit polls were in 2014 — when all survey agencies predicted a clear majority for BJP, which eventually ended up absolutely right in that case.
When they got it right:
1996: The exit poll got their prediction for a fractured mandate correct, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the largest party in the Lok Sabha then, formed the government.
1998: Most of the surveys showed the BJP-led NDA emerging as a clear favourite — but falling short of the majority mark of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha. The range varied from 214 to 249 for the NDA while the Congress-led alliance was predicted to win 145-164 seats. The NDA won 252 while the Congress got 166 seats in the Lok Sabha election in 1998.
1999: With BJP needing a clear majority to win the elections, the exit polls predicted a victory for the NDA government — and that’s what came to be. The election results brought Vajpayee's NDA a majority in India's 545-seat Lok Sabha, with 299 of the 537 seats.
2014: With a strong wave going against Congress and Narendra Modi emerging as the biggest candidate, all exit polls showed a clear majority for a BJP-led government — which they got. In fact, the figures which most of the polls predicted were near the target which BJP got.
When they got it wrong:
2004: Almost all media organisations had predicted Atal Bihari Vajpayee to come back to power. The BJP was predicted to get 230-270 seats; in reality, they got 138. Congress on the other hand, which was predicted to lose the elections, ended up forming the government.
2009: In 2009, most opinion and exit polls predicted a hung Parliament — but the Congress emerged as the biggest party with over 200 seats and formed a stable government on its own.
So which is the most reliable exit poll?
Of the dozens of post-poll surveys thrown at you between now and May 23, the India Today-Axis My India post-poll survey is considered the most accurate. Of all the elections that took place between 2013 and 2019, India Today-Axis My India post-poll surveys have given the correct predictions — in 95% cases.
Since 2013, Axis My India has conducted 36 post-poll surveys — out of which 34 have predicted the correct leading party/alliance.