Social media will test Twitter-happy Trump in time of cyber war
In the three presidential debates in television studios, which swung heavily in favour of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, the former First Lady and secretary of state attacked her Republican opponent Donald Trump amid applause - "A man you can bait with a tweet is not a man we can trust with nuclear weapons."
Hillary was, however, proved wrong. A divided America did entrust her opponent with the nuke codes. The very same man takes oath on Friday as the 45th President of the United States of America.
A Twitter-happy Trump, meanwhile, continues to tweet, and in ALL CAPS on several occasions. His latest in a series of controversial tweets and faux pas - tweeting praise for his daughter Ivanka, but tagging Ivanka Majic of Brighton in Britain instead.
The British Ivanka hit back, asking the US president-elect to be more careful on the social media forum. Her reply received more than ten thousand retweets, was liked by more than 30,000 tweeple and her account soon had much more followers than previously.
"@drgoodspine: @realDonaldTrump @Ivanka Trump is great, a woman with real character and class."
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 17, 2017
@realDonaldTrump @drgoodspine And you're a man with great responsibilities. May I suggest more care on Twitter and more time learning about #climatechange. pic.twitter.com/kBMEGZYtig
— Ivanka Majic (@ivanka) January 17, 2017
With 20.4-million Twitter followers, nearly 6.4 million less than Narendra Modi, Trump will soon be restricted by protocols in place for White House incumbents, provided he is willing to not be a rebel. Else the press, especially the White House Corps, that expects edgy days ahead with the president, will have more online blunders to report on.
But while Trump will use the power of the social media to connect directly to millions of American and global citizens, expect trial balloons turning on and off the pressure taps on friends and foes, also to be floated here.
In their insightful and fascinating book The New Digital Era, Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen In conclusion write (pg 255) - "States will have to practice two foreign policies and two domestic policies - one for the virtual world and one for the physical world - and these policies may appear contradictory."
Less than a month after his incredible election victory, Trump took to Twitter to announce his conversation with the Taiwanese president, a message directly for Beijing.
What immediately rolled out was a sharp war of words between China and his team, with Trump in the days to follow questioning the One China Policy integral to Beijing's sovereign identity. While Trump targets China's Achilles' heel in the virtual world, realpolitiks might be some shades different if institutions reign him in.
As Thomas C Schelling, the Nobel laureate in economics and author of the book The Strategy of Conflict , underlined: "We have learned that a threat has to be credible to be efficacious, and that its credibility may depend on the costs and risks associated with fulfillment for the party making the threat."
Once in office, it will not just be about social media but the internet of things that will test Team Trump's resolutions on national security. The recent intelligence scandals and Democratic National Convention (DNC) hacks involving Russia, allegedly to interfere in the US elections, might be a hurdle for Trump to have deeper ties with Vladimir Putin in the real world, despite his intentions displayed in the online world.
Having a good relationship with Russia is a good thing, not a bad thing. Only "stupid" people, or fools, would think that it is bad! We.....
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 7, 2017
have enough problems around the world without yet another one. When I am President, Russia will respect us far more than they do now and....
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 7, 2017
both countries will, perhaps, work together to solve some of the many great and pressing problems and issues of the WORLD!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 7, 2017
"Superpowers will build up virtual armies within their spheres of influence, adding an important proxy layer to insulate them, and together they'll be able to produce worms, viruses, sophisticated hacks and other forms of online espionage for commercial and political gain," write Schmidt and Cohen.
And in the era of internet codes, as states will continue to launch cyber attacks against countries instead of attempted failures at military strikes, the DC-Moscow-Beijing triangular tango will dance to different tunes in the physical and virtual worlds.
"Some refer to this as the upcoming Code War, where major powers are locked in simmering conflicts in one dimension while economic and political progress continues unaffected in another. But unlike its real-world predecessor, this won't be a primarily binary struggle; rather, the participation of powerful tech-savvy states including Iran, Israel and Russia will make it a multipolar engagement. Clear ideological faultlines will emerge around free expression, open data and liberalism," remind the authors of The New Digital Era.
Trump's team will take over the White House and the top individual-specific accounts of @POTUS @FLOTUS and @VP in a digital transition process today. The followers of the current @POTUS handle will shift to the new Oval Office incumbent, but a clean slate will be provided with all existing tweet history moving over to the new account of @POTUS44.
But unlike a Barack Obama, the first social media US president, a Twitter-happy Trump has said he will continue to tweet from his personal handle @realdonaldtrump, in his new office.
As the new era begins in American politics, expect more news, more policy statements different for two different worlds and cyber attacks recalibrating foreign policy between the strategic giants.
Happy tweeting #PresidentTrump!