Sheikh Hasina overlooked terror festering in Bangladesh’s backyard

It is heartless to say that the slaughter of 23 people, mostly foreigners, at a bakery in Dhaka’s posh suburb of Gulshan few days before the end of the holy month of Ramzan, was waiting to happen. But that is really the case.

So, “what next?” would be a logical question easily asked than answered.

The inability of Sheikh Hasina’s government to bring to book those who carried out the lone wolf attacks to kill 30 people including secularists, foreigners and many non Muslims during the last 15 months probably encouraged the jihadi elements to mount the concerted Dhaka attack.

But there are bigger political reasons hobbling Bangladesh’s war against jihadi terrorism.

Khaleda Zia’s machinations

Prime Minister Hasina saw them merely as violent attempts to destabilise her rule by Begum Khaleda Zia-led opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its fundamentalist coalition partner Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), than as instances of globally manifesting jihadi extremist activity.

Obviously, PM Hasina’s long political struggle to overcome the BNP-JeI opposition that had been hounding her and the Awami League (AL) after her father Mujibur Rahman’s assassination in 1975 continues to prevent her from taking a dispassionate look at the terrorist situation.

As a result, the Bangladesh government had been busying trying to read the fine print to identify the involvement of BNP and JeI elements in the sporadic killings for nearly two years.

In this process, important indicators of the Islamic State’s efforts to step up their activities in South Asia, and in particular Bangladesh, seem to have been missed out.

This is understandable as it was Major General Ziaur Rahman, husband of Begum Khaleda, who usurped power in a military coup taking advantage of the turbulence after Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and his family were assassinated in 1975.

It was Zia who condoned the killers of Mujibur Rahman and soft-pedalled the JeI leaders’ collusion with the Pakistan army in the massacre of thousands of Bengali intellectuals and professionals, in order to gain their support.

It was also Zia, who founded the BNP to legitimise his power and started hobnobbing with fundamentalist elements to rewrite the secular credentials of the country, which had been an article of faith of the AL.

Islamic extremism of BNP, JeI and JMB

By and large, Bangladesh Muslims are Sufis with a moderate worldview of their religion. However, thanks to Saudi Arabian support, Wahabism with its fundamentalist discourse has been making steady inroads into the country.

After Zia’s assassination, General HM Ershad took over power till he was forced to hold democratic elections. Begum Khaleda Zia led the BNP-JeI coalition to power. Their rule enabled Taliban-loving fundamentalist groups like the JeI and Nizam-e-Islami (NeI) to get entrenched in Bangladesh body politics.

It was also the period that saw heightened activity of the Al Qaeda affiliate Harkat-ul Jihad al Islami (HUJI) which established its tentacles in Bangladesh. HUJI was the prime suspect in a plot to assassinate PM Sheikh Hasina in 2000 after she came to power. HUJI was also believed to have been involved in a number of bombings carried out in 2005 that led to its ban.

The BNP-JeI coalition chose to ignore the rise of the Jamatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) –fundamentalist extremists led by “Bangla Bhai” Siddiqul Islam that terrorised the AL and the nation.

Even Sheikh Hasina was not spared of their wrath; according to the AL, she has survived 19 attempts on her life by various opposition groups including fundamentalist parties, JMB and the BNP.

The JMB, which had Taliban links, grew bold enough to explode 500 small bombs in a span of half an hour in 50 towns in 63 of the 65 districts across the country on August 17, 2005. This led to the banning and arrest of JMB leaders and cadres.

After Bangla Bhai and six other JMB leaders were apprehended and executed in March 2007, the JMB was dormant for some time.

Their morale was shattered when PM Hasina, during her second tenure, prosecuted 53 leaders largely from JeI but also from ML, NeI, BNP and Jatiyo Party for war crimes against Bangladesh.

This deprived jihadi extremists the political patronage they had enjoyed which was vital for their survival.

Encroachment from Al Qaeda and ISIS

The decision of the Al Qaeda and the Islamic State to expand their tentacles into South Asia in 2014 found a fertile ground in Bangladesh. It provided rallying points for the JMB and other jihadi outfits like the Al Qaeda-inspired, machete-wielding Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) to step up their activity.

In fact, JMB elements became assertive enough to plan an abortive attack on the Bangladesh prime minister’s motorcade last March.

Now almost all parties have in their ranks fundamentalist elements with Salafist beliefs, which may not support jihadi terrorism but favour its other articles of faith.

PM Hasina has been waging an ambivalent struggle to gain the support of these conservative sections of society as the BNP and JeI have become increasingly dependent upon their support.

This is probably the reason for the government to allow some leeway for fundamentalist propaganda that provides the religious idiom for Jihadi extremism.

Perhaps this was also the reason for the Bangladesh government to allow Salafist preachers like Dr Zakir Naik to hold religious discourse in the country, although it probably inspired terrorists as shown in the Dhaka bakery killings.

There are other factors too, which make Hasina’s fight against jihadi terrorism more difficult.

Exposure to Wahabism/Salafism in the Gulf

Bangladesh has over two million expatriate Muslims working in Gulf countries, with over 1.2 million living in Saudi Arabia alone. With constant exposure to conservative life styles and beliefs, they are a highly vulnerable source of recruits for jihadi terror outfits.

The Islamic State has already mastered the idiom of attracting educated and tech-savvy Muslims. These young converts to terrorism are invigorating Bangladesh Islamic extremism. And the Islamic State is providing them guidance and global exposure.

Bangladesh has a volatile political culture with the involvement of both left-wing and fundamentalist extremism in politics. Major parties including the AL, BNP and JeI have their own highly motivated student groups who are used as tools for political activism that often ends in fisticuffs or even murders.

With Bangladesh’s political discourse providing space for violent means to settle scores, it is not going to be easy for PM Hasina to separate political extremism from jihadi extremism as they are seamlessly interwoven.

The Dhaka bakery slaughter has underlined the urgency for PM Hasina to have a minimum level of political concurrence with other parties in handling terrorism.

However, such a proposition is unlikely to make headway in the near term, given the political blood feuds poised to move into third generation.

Must rewrite counter-terrorism template

So rather than waiting for political empathy in fighting jihadi terrorism, the PM will have to urgently rewrite her counter-terrorism template.

Introduction of systemic improvements in the employment of counter-terrorism forces is probably on the cards. This would include police, paramilitary outfits specializing in fighting extremists like the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and army commando groups.

Modern investigative and surveillance tools need to be used. And most importantly real time exchange of intelligence among various agencies to enable better coordination of their actions has to become part of the standard operative procedure.

Real time international cooperation

PM Hasina will have to further strengthen networking on counter terrorism cooperation with India and the US who are also coming together to scale up such cooperation between them.

India-Bangladesh border, despite all the goodwill prevailing between the two countries, remains porous.

It will remain so given the common roots and contiguity of identity among people living on both sides of the border. That is one of the reasons extremists from both countries are able to find sanctuaries across the border.

It will be prudent for both the countries to make it extremely difficult for the extremists from one country to seek sanctuaries in the other.

This would involve sharing of databases on criminal and extremist elements operating between two countries on a real time basis.

With sizeable Bangladesh immigrant population living along the border areas of Assam and West Bengal, India has proved to be vulnerable to infiltration by jihadi extremists for nearly two decades.

India has huge stake

Bangladesh is equally vulnerable to jihadi extremists operating from Indian sanctuaries. The NIA’s follow up investigations in the October 2, 2014 Bardhman blasts case in West Bengal has revealed that Enamul Mollah, the suspected IS mastermind in India, was an active member of JMB.

Among his followers, 20 IS suspects have been arrested; ten other absconding suspects are believed to be in Bangladesh.

In Assam, in April 2016, the Imam of Amguri masjid in Chirang district was arrested for motivating young men to join JMB. Police have arrested 29 members of an extended module of JMB in the same district.

But as far as India is concerned, the moot question is how much India can help Begum Hasina fight jihadi terrorism?

If she fails, its fallout will not only affect Bangladesh but India as well, particularly the highly militancy-prone northeast region.

India will have to do the extra mile and enroll Mamata Banerjee’s support to ensure West Bengal fully cooperates in weeding out Bangladeshi extremist elements holed up in the country. The same applies to Assam where a BJP government is in power.