Demonetisation will crush the common man

Ten days since Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes were declared illegal tender, one of the greatest moral dilemmas in post-Independence India is still playing out in ordinary people’s mind.

Worrying about daily struggle to meet basic needs or standing in queues for most part of the day, the dilemma is a profound one for most.

To oppose or not to oppose Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetisation decision is the question.

Common folk, battling humongous hardships, fear losing war against the rich and the crooks if they come out in the open to oppose Modi’s decision.

They fear losing their livelihood, the daily war they wage for survival, of their own and their families, the war against diseases and numerous daily struggles if they silently bear the demonetisation pain for long.

The government is reading (or misreading) this dilemma as a sign of people’s approval for the demonetisation drive. That misinterpretation, unfortunately, has led the government to be cocky and arrogant in the extreme.

The cockiness is the reason why the government is unreasonably rigid on not considering rollback of the decision. It’s not even prepared to take any measure that could mitigate the people’s plight in any significant manner.

The government’s misplaced confidence arising out of the people’s dilemma might lead to disastrous outcome in many ways.

The most tragic outcome is likely to be significant dislocation of informal economy that provides livelihood to almost 85 per cent of the population. Most experts feel it may take at least a year or so for the system to get back to normal.

Until then, it’s virtually a war that people have been forced to wage for daily survival. 

For a government that came to power on the promises of providing rapid growth, employment and prosperity, the dislocation of informal economy will torpedo its plan in a major way.

Instead of promised prosperity, there will be untold misery. Instead of more jobs in informal and small private sector enterprises, there will be more joblessness and crippling poverty.

Instead of more liquidity to spur the economy, there will be major disruption in availability of money to carry out businesses and earn livelihood. 

For almost 840 million people, or 70 per cent of total population, in rural areas, cash accounts for primary mode of transaction. With major disruption in the system of cash transaction, normal life in towns and villages across the country is being hugely disrupted.

All these are sure recipes for rural distress and discontent that can manifest in various social problems including rise in crimes and violence.

The other disastrous fallout that awaits the government could be electoral setbacks.

The BJP hopes to cash in on people’s sentiments for "surgical strikes" against black money and corruption to gain electoral benefits. Television channels and press are reporting on how ordinary people are silently bearing the pain for long-term gains.

However, the silent majority of the people who have been stoically standing in queues will also be watching government’s forthcoming moves silently and closely.

They will be waiting to see how many more Janardhana Reddys violate Modi’s oath of crack down on black money because of their proximity to the ruling dispensation. 

The ostentatious marriage of mining lord Reddy’s daughter’s marriage in Bangalore has alerted the people of how rich and powerful cock a snook at Modi’s own grandiose plans. 

They will be keeping a close watch on behaviour of the people perceived to be beneficiaries of ill-gotten wealth. Ostentatious and vulgar display of wealth, brazen misuse of public money will be on the watch list of the people.

The common man/woman will also be keeping a close watch on Modi’s promise to go after people with benami properties, and business sharks who dodge taxes.

Modi will win the demonetisation war if he takes more credible measures to hit black money. The PM will be reaping electoral windfall if he takes more visible and radical steps to check black wealth.

What if Modi fails to genuinely hit the hoarders of black wealth? The stoicism of the ordinary people will turn into wrath. They will avenge their inconveniences, their daily harassment, the sharp fall in their daily or monthly income at the polling booths.

Until then, demonetisation and its likely impact, as ground reports indicate, causing the biggest single earthquake in ordinary people’s lives in 70 years is a moral dilemma for them.

The people are willing to give Modi the benefit of doubt for the time being.

For the moment, demonetisation appears to be even larger in appeal to ordinary people than Indira Gandhi’s "garibi hatao" slogan of 1971.

The call for "garibi hatao" was preceded by a series of concrete radical, and socialist measures, such as nationalisation of banks and abolition of privy purses. That had enthused the people to give Mrs Gandhi a landslide victory.

Sadly, there were not many tangible gains for the poor from most of the socialist-sounding measures. The "garibi hatao" slogan was followed by a few anti-poverty programmes, but not enough to radically change the conditions of the poor.

The slogan proved to be a millstone round Mrs Gandhi’s neck. Within years, people turned against her.

Ordinary people’s dilemma will give way for discontent if Modi fails to follow up demonetisation with more tangible measures to target black wealth.

Then Modi will realise that heaven hath no rage like people’s hopes dashed.

Also read: Demonetisation is government's war against people, not fight against black money

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