It is possible to defeat the BJP in Delhi, in theory
Many people have asked me about my prognosis of the high-profile Delhi municipal elections later this month, where the ruling BJP has decided to unleash all its chief ministers, apart from the big man PM Narendra Modi himself, for campaigning.
Their questions are loaded as they know full well that I completely misread the eventual UP results - for which I tender my unqualified apologies.
I tell them that after UP, it is well nigh impossible for the despirited and fragmented Opposition to defeat the BJP in any elections in the near future, be these for the Delhi municipality or the next two Assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh scheduled towards the end of this year.
The BJP has become the new Badshah of elections and it has perfected the art of electoral warfare, thanks to the Modi-Amit Shah duo, so much that its victory juggernaut has been rolling on relentlessly.
Bihar was an exception - but also a vital lesson in political science to all political parties. The defeat of the BJP in the Bihar Assembly polls in November 2015 proved that the entire non-BJP opposition has to come together to defeat the behemoth called the BJP.
This did not happen in UP and Uttarakhand, where the BJP polled 42 per cent and 46 per cent votes respectively. This means that theoretically, I repeat theoretically, it is possible to defeat the BJP. But theories are theories and the practical experience is radically different.
Theoretically, if the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress had contested the UP elections together they could have made it difficult for the BJP.
Theoretically, if the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are to contest the upcoming Delhi municipal elections together, they can give the BJP a run for its money in all 272 seats up for grabs.
But theories are theories, as I submitted earlier, and it is impossible to think that all non-BJP parties can come together on one single platform with the sole objective of defeating the BJP.
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| The BJP has become the new Badshah of elections and it has perfected the art of electoral warfare. Photo: PTI |
Because if this were to happen, it would have happened in a limited manner in Varanasi in the April-May 2014 general elections, where all non-BJP parties, including SP, BSP, Congress and AAP, went solo and because of their personal egos squandered away a chance to bog down PM candidate Modi in Varanasi, if not defeat him outright.
A similar tale of individual bloated egos is likely to be repeated in Gujarat later this year where Modi's challengers are the Congress, AAP and the Shiv Sena-supported Hardik Patel. Will Gujarat see a Bihar-type grand alliance of all major non-BJP parties? It's extremely unlikely. And if this were to happen, there will be no stopping Amit Shah from realising his declared goal of winning 150 seats in the 182-member Assembly.
But first come the Delhi municipal polls. The two major non-BJP forces - Congress and AAP - are indeed fighting these polls separately. This is a recipe for disaster for the opposition as post-Uttar Pradesh, the BJP has acquired the halo of an unbeatable party.
The opposition needs to look at the harsh ground realities. They must understand that fighting elections separately is a big thank you gift to the BJP and the only chance of defeating the Goliath takes shape if the relevant Davids were to come under one single umbrella.
That isn't happening in the Delhi municipal polls and that's why I am betting my money on a clear majority for the BJP.
After winning Uttar Pradesh, Modi has become the blazing red hot mid-summer sun at high noon. Anyone looking at him will be dazzled, if not blinded.
To use a mythological comparison from the great Hindu epic Ramayana, Modi has become like the monkey king Bali post UP results. He weans away half the strength of his opponent even before the start of the battle!
Now finally a word about the Madhya Pradesh EVM controversy where, as per media reports, the Electronic Voting Machine on trial tossed up the BJP's poll symbol, lotus, irrespective of which symbol was pressed.
Well, it's only a storm in a tea cup. The fact of the matter is that the BJP is sitting high and pretty and the opposition parties would do better to channelise their energies and efforts in their respective poll campaigns rather then chasing ghosts where none exist.