The role India must play with China and Russia
May 1 is celebrated in many parts of the world as International Workers’ Day. This “Labour Day”, I find myself thinking of the two greatest erstwhile socialist republics in the world, Russia and China. As it happens, I also returned early this morning from Moscow after speaking at the 3rd Conference on Indology at the historic State University of St Petersburg.
On our last day in this cultural capital of Russia, we were taken to St Peter’s Square or Senate Square. It was here that on December 26, 1825, 3,000 soldiers revolted against Tsar Nicholas I. The uprising was put down, but nearly 100 years later, the Bolsheviks did succeed in overthrowing the monarchy.
Russia rises
On the way back to our hotel, we paused by the Battleship Aurora, now a museum. A single blank shot fired from this ship on October 25, 1917, heralded the start of the revolution. The provisional government caved in; Vladimir Lenin’s Red Guards stormed the Winter Palace the following day. St Petersburg, once called Petrograd, then Leningrad after the revolution, bears the vivid traces of such important historical events and experiments in human social and political engineering.
During my earlier visit to Russia, just after the collapse of the Soviet Union, I had witnessed much pain and suffering, terrible uncertainty not to mention economic privation. Some of my friends had lost their jobs, others, even senior professors, were doubling up as cab drivers to make ends meet. This visit was much more reassuring and comfortable.
Russia, the largest country in the world, is also a resilient and enduring civilisation. India cannot afford to neglect this part of the world. We have age-old ties, whose advantages we must not forget. Russia, moreover, will remain important, even crucial to the balance of power not only in the region but also in the world, for decades to come.
It cannot be written off, nor taken for granted. What is more, Russians have managed their economic and political transition quite successfully, certainly without the kind of bloodshed that the revolution and its aftermath witnessed.
Though Russia’s importance is much diminished after the breakup of the USSR and even though it is no longer the world’s other superpower, its sphere of influence, particularly in Central Asia, remains significant if not intact. We must never forget that Russia has not only been our friend and ally in the past, but remains the bulwark against Islamic terrorism in the region.
Travelling through Russia, I was struck by the disciplined, educated, hardworking and polite populace. The streets are clean, the supermarkets well stocked and stacked. Russians take a pride in their land and traditions. Though they have suffered much, often with self-inflicted wounds, they are a great people.
China matters
But just as I was struck by how significant, albeit eclipsed, the Indian-Russian relationship is, there was a news flash of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s sudden two-day informal visit to China on April 28. Of course, these trips are carefully prepared for, even if the press or public is taken off guard. China, arguably our most important neighbour, is today close to establishing itself as the world’s No 1 power. In terms of purchasing power party (PPP), it is already the world’s greatest economy and ranked second after in the US in terms of nominal GDP
Xi Jinping’s confirmation as President-for-life is nothing if not a seal of approval from the ruling Communist Party on his mandate to make China the world’s undisputed leader. China’s will to power is awesome; it will not brook any interference in its mission. PM Modi’s visit was a much-needed acknowledgment of President Xi’s enhanced role as China’s supreme leader for life and therefore the world’s most powerful man.
Balancing act
Many Right-wing folks in India are not only suspicious of China’s designs, but also, and I strongly believe, mistakenly competitive. Let us face it: China is way ahead of us on most important parameters. A foolish attempt to equalise would be disastrous to our self-interests.
For example, the BJP’s still current but resentful ally, the Shiv Sena, attacked Modi’s China dash in its newspaper Saamna, for imitating Jawaharlal Nehru’s “no war” policy. What did they expect? Idle and foolish war-mongering instead?
Chinese foreign ministry mandarins on the occasion of this visit have spoken of “eternal peace” with India as the natural destiny of our two great civilisations. We should endorse this heartily. What can be better than that for us?
China may keep needling us, supporting our archenemy Pakistan, opposing our entry to the UN Security Council, funding Maoist insurgents, and so on, but we must never let these factors unnecessarily spoil our relationship. Respect for China and strategic acknowledgment of its might, along with our own “peaceful rise”, to borrow a Chinese term, should be the cornerstone of our policy.
India has to play a delicate balancing role when it comes to the great powers in our region, China and Russia. We cannot neglect either. We can counter-balance China’s tremendous influence by maintaining friendship not only with Russia but also with Japan, US and Australia, as a part of our Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.
Good for us that foreign secretary Vijay Keshav Gokhale is a China expert, as was his predecessor S Jaishankar. This May Day, let’s resolve to be in China’s good books as well as enhance our enduring partnership with Russia.
(Courtesy of Mail Today)