Census of religion: Government sold it, media bought it

There is a famous quote on data which goes like this: "Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital."

As the government released the Census 2011 data on "Population by Religious Communities" on August 25, reading the headlines on the front page of various newspapers the next day, I couldn't help but notice the spin each newspaper tried to give, leaving no doubt in my mind on the timing of the release of the data.

First some basic facts: after much delay and consequent speculations as well as a few planted stories, the Census 2011 religion-based population data stated that of the 121.09 crore population of the country, Hindus number 96.63 crore (79.8 per cent), Muslims 17.22 crore (14.2 per cent), Christians 2.78 crore (2.3 per cent), Sikhs 2.08 crore (1.7 per cent), Buddhists 0.84 crore (0.7 per cent), Jains 0.45 crore (0.4 per cent), other religions and persuasions (ORP) 0.79 crore (0.7 per cent) and religion not stated 0.29 crore (0.2 per cent).

In terms of percentage, there is, thus, a marginal decline in the Hindu population from 80.5 per cent in 2001 to 79.8 per cent in 2011 and the Muslim population has slightly increased to 14.23 per cent from 13.4 per cent in 2001. However, there is an important caveat - the decadal growth of Muslims was the lowest in the last decade than it ever was, and although it is still higher than the Hindus, the gap between them has further narrowed. According to the data available, from 1961 to 1981, the population of major communities grew, but following population control campaigns like "Hum Do Hamare Do", from 1981 onwards, Hindu decadal growth began to decline - from 24.07 per cent in 1981 to 16.76 per cent in 2011.

It is a well-documented fact that in the initial years, the birth control drive was seen with apprehension by the Muslim and other minority communities, and hence from 1981 to 1991, the Muslim population grew at 32.88 per cent, but since then there has been a considerable dip.

In 2001, it was 29.52 per cent, while in 2011 it saw a steeper decline, and is 24.6 per cent now. No doubt it is still high, but rather than seeing any conspiracy of overshadowing the Hindu population, the government of the day should learn from the past two decades of experience and invest in health and education along with awareness drives that will further slow down the decadal growth of the Muslim population.

Professor Monirul Hassan of the Gauhati University, who has worked on issues of ethnicity, migration and so on once told me in the context of Assam: "If you go to Muslim villages, their socio-economic condition is pathetic; the community has largely remained economically and educationally backward. And everywhere in the world you will find that [among] those communities which are marginalised and are poor, [the] fertility rate is higher than those which are middle class."

Several Muslim-dominated districts from Dhubri in Assam to Murshidabad in West Bengal and further, to the Seemanchal region of Bihar are among the most backward districts in the country, along with those dominated by Dalits and tribals. The increase in the Muslim population in Assam from 30.9 per cent in 2001 to 34.22 per cent in 2011 too must be seen in the same perspective before any hue and cry over illegal migration.

The latest data also shows that the sex ratio has also improved considerably among the Muslim community, from 936 women per 1,000 men last time, to 956, while among the Hindus, it has gone marginally up to 939 from 931 women per 1,000 men.

However, the Indian media has preferred to raise an alarm as if the Muslim population has grown exponentially. Clearly, Hindi newspapers were more provocative. Leading Hindi newspaper, Danik Jagran said, "Badhi Muslim hissedari" (The percentage of Muslims has increased); in Amar Ujala, it was more dramatic, "Aabadi ki raftaar, Hindu ki dheemi, Muslimo ki tez" (The population growth of Hindus is slowing, while that of Muslims increasing); while the headline in Hindustan was "Muslim aabadi sabse tez badhi" (Muslim population rose the fastest).

English newspapers were not far behind, The Times of India screamed, "Muslim share of population up 0.8 per cent, Hindus down O.7 per cent." The Indian Express anchor story tried to say everything: "Hindus dip to below 80 per cent of population; Muslim share up, slows down." The most outrageous, though not surprising, was The Pioneer: "Muslim numbers up, Hindus down." The Hindu appeared most sober and conveyed the important news shunning all alarmism: "Muslim population growth slows."

TV channels were no better. Zee TV yelled, "Hindu population down below 80 per cent for first time ever, Muslims at 14 per cent" and "Muslim population grew the most during 2001-2011", as if the population equation between the two communities had completely reversed.

That brings one to make the moot point: the timing of the release of the census data, clearly keeping in mind the Bihar Assembly elections.

The UPA delayed it last year keeping in mind the general election, which anyway it lost miserably, while the NDA sat on it for over a year to use it as political chip at an opportune time.

The Indian Express reported in the past few days how Hindutva forces have been trying their best to polarise the Hindu voters since the BJP split from the JD(U) and the timing of the release of the selective data on religion, but not on caste, shows that the BJP wants to extract the maximum benefit out of it. And the media, it appears, is leaving no stone unturned to help a certain party reap maximum benefit out of the census data.