Modi's cabinet reshuffle will not be major
Though there is immense hype around the supposed cabinet reshuffle of Narendra Modi's council of ministers, there are chances that finally it may turn out to be just another hoopla. It is very probable that the reshuffle will be a minor one - just a touch here and there, with no major inclusion or exclusion in the cabinet.
The exercise is likely to take place by July 6 as Modi is leaving for a tour of four African countries from July 7 to 11. The monsoon session of Parliament is commencing on July 18, just a week after the PM returns. If the long-awaited Cabinet reshuffle takes place on July 6, the newly inducted ministers, or ministers who get new portfolios will have just about 11 days to get acquainted with their new departments.
Ideally, a full-fledged cabinet reshuffle takes place at least a month before the next Parliament session. This practice is followed to give sufficient time to the new cabinet minister to get acclimatised with her/his portfolio. The minister has to reply to incisive questions from fellow MPs in both the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha during the Question Hour and other discussions.
The slightest fumbling or failure to appear confident invites snide remarks from not just the opposition members but also the treasury benches. This confidence and flair comes only if a minister gets ample time to sit with the bureaucrats of his or her department/s. A week or ten days are insufficient for any minister to get a working knowledge of the department concerned.
In all, there are 64 in Modi's council of ministers. Including the PM, there are 27 cabinet ministers, 12 ministers have independent charge, while 25 have the rank of minister of state. Though Modi can add 18 more ministers in the council - as the maximum strength of Union government can be 82 - he does not intend to exercise that option. Being very close to the monsoon session, the timing of the exercise, at least, indicates this.
As far as the cabinet ministers are concerned, the PM does not have much option to reshuffle it either. There is no likelihood of any change in the top five slots, who form the Cabinet Committee of Security (CCS). They comprise the PM, home minister Rajnath Singh, finance minister Arun Jaitley, external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj and defence minister Manohar Parrikar.
There are rumours of Parrikar going back to Goa as its chief minister, Jaitley replacing him as defence minister and power minister Piyush Goyal becoming the new finance minister.
However, this scenario is unlikely. Because, if Parrikar goes back to Goa, the BJP will lose the first psychological war against Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party who have blown the poll bugle and expect a Delhi redux in that state. Parrikar will indeed focus on the state, but not as a CM.
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| Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Cabinet colleagues during their swearing-in ceremony on May 26, 2014. |
As far as Goyal replacing Jaitley is concerned, that too is not a likely scenario. Goyal is just a minister of state with independent charge of power, coal, new and renewable energy. He is not senior enough to straightaway become a Union cabinet minister, hold the crucial finance portfolio and become a member of the CCS - the most important cabinet committee.
Of course, there are chances that Goyal, who is believed to have done an impressive work in his departments, particularly power, may be upgraded as a cabinet minister.There is also the possibility of minister of state for both parliamentary affairs and minority affairs, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, getting elevated as a cabinet minister. But this can happen only if his senior, Najma Heptulla, is dropped, following Modi's 75-year upper limit to remain a minister. Born on April 13, 1940, she is already 76. It was on the basis of this criterion that senior leaders such as LK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi and Shanta Kumar were kept away from Modi's cabinet.
If Heptulla goes, then so should micro, small and medium enterprises minister Kalraj Mishra, who will turn 75 on July 1. These are the only two ministers who are likely to be dropped.
Otherwise, the talk of law and justice minister, Sadananda Gowda, also being dropped from the Modi ministry, not because of the overage criterion (he is 63) but because of non-performance, is also not on the anvil. Gowda is being tipped to be sent back to Karnataka which goes to polls in 2017. However, his going back is a remote possibility because his rival inside the party - BS Yeddyurappa - holds the post of Karnataka BJP president. There is no slot vacant for Gowda in his state.
However, there may indeed be a few more additions - particularly from the poll-bound Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Anupriya Patel of the Apna Dal, BJP's ally from UP, is likely to join the Modi bandwagon and so may firebrand BJP leader from eastern UP, Yogi Adityanath. Apna Dal won two seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, helping the NDA to win 73 out of 80 seats in the state. Anupriya's Kurmi castemen constitute a sizable 9 per cent of UP's population. They may play a crucial role in the 2017 Assembly polls too.
Adityanath's elevation will only invite widespread criticism from the rivals. The MP from Gorakhpur is known for his controversial hardline Hindutva rhetoric. However, the five-time BJP MP (since 1998) is very popular in eastern UP and his inclusion will help polarise votes further in favour of the party.
Also, a minister will be called to fill the sports minister's vacancy caused by shifting of Sarbananda Sonwal to Assam as chief minister.
Apart from these petty tid-bits, the much-awaited and long-pending cabinet reshuffle of Modi government may well turn out to be a damp squib.