Boko Haram-ISIS tie-up: What India must do

Last week, Boko Haram, the notorious jihadi outfit based in north-east Nigeria, announced its affiliation with the Islamic State (IS). In a video message carried on Twitter, its leader, Abubakr Shekau, swore bayat, oath of allegiance to the "Caliph of the Muslims" and the leader of the IS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, stating formally that he would “hear and obey in times of difficulty and prosperity”.

Name

The official name of Boko Haram is: "Association Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet’s Teachings and Jihad". Its origins lie in a relatively quietist Salafi group set up town of Maiduguri in the north-eastern Nigerian state of Borno in 2002, under the leadership of a preacher and Islamic scholar, Mohammed Yusuf. This movement challenged the country’s largely moderate Sufi traditions by rejecting the Nigeria state and secular law and mainstream education which was seen as imbued with western values.

In an encounter with Nigerian security authorities in 2009 due to some local disputes, Yusuf and his family members became victims of extra-judicial killings. In their death they gave birth to a radical movement, popularly called Boko Haram, which roughly means "Western education is forbidden". Boko Haram’s origins emerge from the specific context of Nigeria: A Nigerian scholar has described the movement as “a symptom of decades of failed government”, pervasive corruption and police brutality which have aggravated popular alienation due to widespread poverty: While the national average of those below the poverty line is 61 per cent, the average in the north, the bastion of Boko Haram, is 72 per cent.

Boko Haram’s aim is to set up the kingdom of God on earth which will give justice to the poor and oppressed through the strict application of Sharia. Under Shekau’s leadership, Boko Haram has embarked on a campaign of violence and intimidation, including massacres, kidnappings, beheadings, bombings and suicide attacks. It obtained considerable global notoriety with the kidnapping of over 200 girl students in April 2014, which led to an international campaign titled: “Bring Back Our Girls”.

The outfit has about 6,000 active fighters, with several thousand supporters. It controls territory measuring 20,000 sq km, and is well provided for through bank robberies, ransom payments, smuggling and thefts of weapons. Over 10,000 people are believed to have been killed as a result of Boko Haram’s depredations, while over a million and a half have been displaced.

Reports

Over the last few years, there were persistent reports that Boko Haram had links with the al-Qaeda entities in the Maghreb and in the Arabian Peninsula. However, it was the advent of the IS in July 2014 that led Shekau to announce that territories captured by him were part of an “Islamic caliphate”. From September last year, it was seen that Boko Haram was increasingly fighting like a conventional army, establishing firm control over territories occupied by it in the states of Borno, Adamwa and Yobe in the north-east of Nigeria, possibly on the basis of advice on strategy and tactics from the IS.

Early this year, commentators noted that there was a remarkable improvement in the quality of the videos and other media productions of Boko Haram, a sign that it was receiving assistance and training from the IS. The announcement of the oath of allegiance followed soon thereafter in early March, capturing world headlines and surprising most observers.

First reactions have generally downplayed the significance of the affiliation. A US spokesman has dismissed the oath of allegiance as mere propaganda; a British commentator has called it “a superficially impressive propaganda coup” but effectively a “cry for help”, while an African academic also sees it as a “big propaganda coup” for both the IS and Boko Haram, but with hardly any operational significance. The Nigerian government spokesman believes it is in fact an “act of desperation” on part of Boko Haram since it is being pummelled by bombardment by Nigerian and other African forces.

Views

These views are much too sanguine and misconceived. First, with the oath of allegiance, strong bonds have been set up which symbolically stretch the empire of the Caliphate from the Levant to northwest Africa, giving a specific territorial definition to the nascent Caliphate while bringing the various jihadi groups into one structured fraternity under a leadership that is likely to have an inspirational rather than an operational role. In time, such fraternal links will end the divide between the al-Qaeda and the IS and promote the coalescing of disparate jihadi entities into a powerful global force that embraces radical elements from Pakistan to Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, the Arabian Peninsula, and across North and Sub-Saharan Africa. Second, the affiliation with the IS has enhanced Boko Haram’s standing in the counsels of global jihad, enabling it to attract foreign fighters and perhaps more funds from the jihadi network. Finally, operational cooperation in Libya, where the IS has just established a foothold, poses an immediate threat to the entire region.

This emerging cohesion among jihadi groups constitutes a major challenge for south and west Asia, both as a security threat and as an allure for their rootless and alienated youth. Most Arab governments in the region fail to see that their maintaining authoritarian rule at home and pursuing sectarian and communitarian confrontations regionally have broken states and opened them to penetration from the scourge of jihad. This provides India, which has excellent ties with all the regional players, the opportunity to mobilise support to prepare platforms for dialogue and promotion of mutual confidence among the contending nations whose follies have spawned monsters that threaten to devour us all.