BJP juggernaut is losing steam, so what are Modi's chances of winning a second term?
The Opposition, sensing an end to the Narendra Modi wave that swept them away four years ago, is girding up its loins. UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi gathered the leaders of 19 political parties last week to chalk out a united plan of action to defeat the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections as well as a raft of state Assembly polls due in 2018.
The results of three by-elections in Rajasthan where the Congress won two parliamentary seats and one Assembly seat have added to the belief that the tide is turning. The key problem though is Opposition disunity. Psephologists like to focus their analysis on the Index of Opposition Unity (IOU). In 2019, Modi’s best chance of survival for a second term could be the Index of Opposition Disunity (IOD).
Losing steam
There’s little doubt that the BJP juggernaut has lost steam. Its NDA allies complain they are being ignored. Coalition meetings are rarely held. The Shiv Sena is in open revolt. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is smarting at the ‘step-motherly’ treatment Andhra Pradesh received in fund allocations in the 2018-19 Union Budget. Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP chafes at being sidelined in UP. The Akalis, emasculated in Punjab, no longer count for much in the NDA. Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) speaks in two voices. Chief general secretary KC Tyagi supports the BJP at every opportunity. National general secretary Pavan Varma opposes the BJP at every opportunity.
In the Northeast, several members of the NDA-backed North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) are fighting the three Assembly elections in Nagaland, Meghalaya and Manipur, due over the next few weeks, independently to varying degrees. Post-poll alliances will follow.
None of this augers well for the BJP — and it has only itself to blame. By weakening links with NDA allies through hubris and neglect, the BJP has allowed the Opposition to gain ground. Congress president Rahul Gandhi has meanwhile played his cards well. He cobbled together a caste-OBC-Patel coalition in Gujarat to give the BJP a fright in the December 2017 Assembly poll and established himself as a serious campaigner. He began interacting with foreign leaders and NRIs to burnish his global profile. He hired a young and sassy social media maverick to provoke and taunt the Prime Minister, often in bad taste but frequently to good effect.
Rahul’s most important ploy has been to embrace his Hinduism by touring temples. He is multi-ethnic, an advantage in a globalised world. That’s where the good news ends. Opposition unity in India doesn’t have a happy history. The two United Front governments headed by Deve Gowda and Inder Kumar Gujral in 1996-98 were brought down by the Congress which had initially propped them up from outside.
The absence of Mayawati from Sonia Gandhi’s 19-party meeting at 10 Janpath was significant. Mamata Banerjee too did not attend but at least sent the garrulous Derek O’Brein in a show of solidarity. O’Brien quickly spoiled Sonia’s mood by implying that Mamata (and not Rahul) should be the face of the Opposition. O’Brien didn’t mince words: “It is important that someone with impeccable credentials leads us into 2019. Someone who has been either a CM or a Union minister.” Rahul of course has been neither.
Number games
Without Mamata’s TMC and Mayawati’s BSP, the Opposition cannot win power in 2019. The arithmetic doesn’t add up. The Opposition’s best chance to stop the BJP sweeping Uttar Pradesh in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll is stitching together a Mayawati-Mulayam-Congress mahagathbandhan. But Mayawati and Mulayam’s vote silos are a bad fit. In a triangular contest between the BJP, BSP and SP-Congress, the BJP could win up to 60 Lok Sabha seats in a three-way split. But in a two-cornered fight between the BJP and a BSP-SP-Congress alliance, the BJP may drop to 38-40 seats, compromising its chances of forming the next government. Fortunately for the BJP, a Mayawati-Mulayam seat-sharing arrangement seems almost impossible to reconcile.
Like Mayawati, Mamata is the other wild card. The TMC is likely to win over 30 Lok Sabha seats in 2019. A Congress-led or Congress-supported government will need those 30 MPs to make up the numbers in the Lok Sabha.
Two problems
The Congress is thus confronted with two problems. One, it may on its own at most win 80-90 Lok Sabha seats. Cobbling together 272 MPs will be virtually impossible from such a low base. Two, even if the numbers are somehow made up with crossovers from current NDA allies, Rahul himself may have to cede the prime ministership to Mamata. That thought alone, if highlighted in Modi’s Lok Sabha campaign, will frighten enough disenchanted BJP voters to leap back into his embrace.
Modi has made several tactical errors. He has not held a structured press conference since taking office — unprecedented in a democracy. A large number of BJP Lok Sabha MPs have proved ineffective in both their constituencies and in Parliament. His cabinet, with the exception of a handful of ministers, lacks talent. His over-reliance on bureaucrats worked well in Gujarat but has backfired at the Centre.
Modi’s two greatest strengths are electioneering and execution. Many Modi government schemes are innovative. But executing them has proved difficult even for Modi. Campaigning is Modi’s strongest suit. Alas that may no longer be enough. The country has moved on. It wants outcomes, not oratory. Those days are over.
(Courtesy of Mail Today)