Holding on to Gujarat is more important for BJP than even winning UP
There are nearly 400 million Muslims and Dalits in India. According to the 2011 census, Muslims comprise 14.2 per cent of the population, Dalits 16.6 per cent. Every third Indian is therefore Muslim or Dalit.
For politicians a Dalit-Muslim combination forms an electoral juggernaut. In Uttar Pradesh, which has 20.5 per cent of India's total Dalit population (over 40 million out of the country's 210 million Dalits) and another 40 million Muslims, the combination could prove decisive.
Mayawati has regained lost momentum after a series of atrocities on Dalits in recent weeks and the crude personal remark by BJP Uttar Pradesh vice-president Dayashankar Singh, expelled last week from the party and arrested on July 29. The Samajwadi Party's misgovernance could also nudge a part of its Muslim base to vote strategically for the BSP in order to keep the BJP at bay.
With eight months to go for the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, much can change on the ground. Polarisation could recur with the BJP and SP playing choreographed but complementary roles.
Mayawati's alleged corruption in ticket distribution could blight her bid. And the Congress, with its line-up of entitled dynasts (Sheila Dikshit, Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Vadra, Sanjay Singh, et al), might play spoiler, splitting the vote in a four-cornered contest.
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| A big problem for the BJP in Gujarat has been CM Anandiben Patel's weak governance. |
Asaduddin Owaisi's MIM, a small player in Uttar Pradesh, is nevertheless another potential vote-splitter in what is one of the three most important state elections in 2017 before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
The most important Assembly election of course is Gujarat, due in December 2017. (Punjab, which goes to the polls early next year, is the third key Assembly election in 2017.)
It is Gujarat, however, where the Opposition senses a real opportunity to embarrass Prime Minister Narendra Modi. For the BJP holding on to Gujarat is more important than even winning Uttar Pradesh. A loss in Uttar Pradesh can be absorbed two years before the next Lok Sabha polls. Losing Gujarat just 16 months before the Lok Sabha elections would be devastating.
That explains why Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal, Brinda Karat and others made a beeline for the state. One eye was fixed on the Dalit victims of cow vigilantism. The other was fixed even more firmly on the 2017 Gujarat elections. That too is why the Opposition has ignored similar recent cow vigilantism against Dalits in friendly Bihar.
Fortunately for the BJP, the Opposition might be overplaying its hand. The AAP could ironically cut into the Congress vote in Gujarat, helping the BJP eke out a slender majority in the 182-seat Assembly next December.
The BJP, however, faces three big red flags in Gujarat. The first is the Dalit backlash. The second is the Patidar agitation led by Hardik Patel. The third is the ineffective governance by chief minister Anandiben Patel.
Patel is set to be replaced as chief minister before the Assembly elections. Prime Minister Modi and party president Amit Shah will need to campaign relentlessly across Gujarat soon after the Uttar Pradesh polls to reverse popular disaffection.
The Patidar agitation is more complex. It is being fanned by Opposition leaders and will need dexterous handling by the BJP to contain it. Patidars form over 20 per cent of Gujarat's population. They are a powerful community of landowners who have not adjusted to new economic challenges.
Dalits comprise just seven per cent of Gujarat's population. The violent incidents against them may, however, drive them towards the Congress and tip the balance in a close election.
Muslims make up less than ten per cent of Gujarat's electorate. The Dalit-Muslim juggernaut thus has less potency in Gujarat than it does in Uttar Pradesh. But it nonetheless poses a threat to the BJP.
The picture for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections is even grimmer. Around 47 per cent of India's Dalits live in just four states: Uttar Pradesh (20.5 per cent), West Bengal (10.7 per cent), Bihar (8.2 per cent) and Tamil Nadu (7.2 per cent). In 2014, the BJP won 93 of its 282 Lok Sabha seats in just two states: Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
Erosion in the national Dalit vote, which swung away from Mayawati in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections giving her a humiliating tally of zero seats in the current Lok Sabha, could cost the BJP dear in Uttar Pradesh in both the 2017 state Assembly polls and the 2019 general elections. Modi may still be re-elected in 2019 but Uttar Pradesh will decide the margin of victory.
Gujarat gave the BJP 26 out of 26 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. With a population of 63 million, Gujarat has five per cent of India's population.
According to a recent Right to Information (RTI) reply, the state recorded 1,052 atrocities on Dalits in 2015. It is little consolation that Uttar Pradesh recorded 8,946 and Bihar 7,893 atrocities against Dalits during the same period - several times Gujarat's figures and disproportionately high even when the states' respective population figures are factored in.
Worse, the conviction rate for crimes against scheduled castes was just 2.5 per cent (in 2013) against a national conviction rate of 23.8 per cent according to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB).
For the BJP, the national electoral math is stark. In 2014, seven states gave it 204 seats out of its tally of 282 Lok Sabha seats: Uttar Pradesh (71), Bihar (22), Maharashtra (23), Rajasthan (25), Madhya Pradesh (27), Chhattisgarh (10) and Gujarat (26).
The road to Delhi in 2019 will thus pass not only through Lucknow but Ahmedabad as well. That is why the anti-Modi Opposition spent much of last week on the prime minister's terra firma.