Why BJP will keep winning elections, with RSS support
"No government has ever been subject to such a level of scrutiny," remarked Dr Anirban Ganguly, director, Shyama Prasad Mukherjee Research Foundation, at the launch of his book Redefining Governance: Essays on One Year of Modi Government in 2015 at India International Centre (IIC) to discuss some of the policy achievements of the Narendra Modi government.
It was certainly true because ever since the seating of Modi government (May 2014) in Delhi, Lutyens' Delhi, which some have referred to as "state of mind", has been critical of every single policy initiative at large.
Interestingly, criticism is a valid "political right" in a democracy like India but being conclusive in your words before the policy outcomes have not been even realised is not just an act of falsehood but rather of "fabricated journalism".
Being a student of political science I wish to admit that in a "functional democracy" like India, it is more or less the level of electoral success that determines the acceptance of any political party, its ideology and the working of its government.
In the case of Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) every minor election since 2014 has been painted as a referendum on the performance of the Modi government. Considering the case of electoral success, it can be easily seen that BJP has been on a "steady rise" since the formation of its government at the Centre led by Modi.
Looking at major poll results after the 2014 general elections, the BJP has made "good progress" if we see the results of the Assembly elections in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
While the major opponent Congress started “losing its relevance” with losses in Assam and Kerala, the victory of BJP in Assam opened the gates for its further expansion in the North East. Led by the brilliant strategy of party general secretary Ram Madhav, the BJP was able to win 86 of 126 Assembly seats in Assam with an effective vote share of 29.5 per cent.
In the case of Kerala, BJP's vote share increased from 6 to nearly 15 per cent although it could not be converted in number of seats. Nonetheless, the BJP was able to dislodge the Congress-led UDF from power in the state.
UDF losing 26 seats in the Hindu heartland is one such example. In Puducherry and Tamil Nadu, the BJP was able to maintain its vote share with candidates contesting on almost all seats. Considering the tough walk for BJP in the southern states, these successes cannot be overlooked.
 |
| BJP’s electoral success makes a case for good governance. (Photo: India Today) |
In Bihar too, the BJP was able to register a "moral victory" against an "opportunist alliance" between JD(U) and Lalu Yadav-led RJD by drawing the maximum share of votes at 24.4 per cent in the keenly contested state elections.
Except for Delhi, the BJP did not lose so badly where it was supposed to be a major opponent. In Delhi too, BJP was able to maintain its vote share of more than 30 per cent unlike the Congress, which lost all seats with a vote share of just 9.7 per cent.
Even if these results mark an early referendum on the BJP government at the Centre, the comfortable success of the party makes the argument flawed and misleading.
Moreover, in a key state like Maharashtra the BJP was able to win the maximum number of 122 seats with the highest vote share of 27.8 per cent. Not only did the BJP get its first CM in the state, it was also able to dilute the Shiv Sena’s "political immaturity".
The BJP was also able to register a victory in local body polls in other parts of the country like Rajasthan, Gujarat and Chandigarh, with the demonetisation policy as one of the main campaign planks.
In Madhya Pradesh (MP) municipal elections, the BJP won 30 seats in the 35-member civic body. In Chandigarh, it was able to muster 20 of 26 seats in the municipal elections. In Rajasthan too, the BJP improved its performance by winning 67 civic bodies in comparison to 49 in 2010.
In Arunachal Pradesh, a BJP government was formed with the joining of 33 of 43 PPA MLAs led by CM Pema Khandu. The party has good prospects in the Meghalaya state elections (2017), led by strategic "political alliancing" with regional parties like UDP.
In Manipur too, the BJP is a strong opponent to the Congress in the upcoming elections. In UP, the Congress-SP alliance is the outcome of a strong undercurrent in favour of the BJP.
With the recent success of the BJP in the Odisha panchayat elections (2017), the party has been able to give up the tag of being an "urban party". In the just concluded Maharashtra municipal elections, the BJP emerged as the big winner by conquering the Pimpri-Chinchwad municipal corporation, along with Akola, Amravati, Solapur, Pune, Nasik, Nagpur and Ulhasnagar. In Mumbai too, it got 82 seats, just two less than its bitter partner Shiv Sena.
All these results for more than two years in favour of the BJP are not the outcome of a coincidence. Rather it shows identification of the people, both in rural and urban areas, with the party’s ideology, governance model and leadership.
The consecutive victories of the BJP government in Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh are reflection of this growth model. While Gujarat for long has been hailed as a "model of governance", BJP leaders like Shivraj Singh Chouhan (MP) and Raman Singh (Chhattisgarh) have been populist faces among the masses with affectionate labels such as "mama" and "chawal wale baba". All this comes due to the party’s commitment towards good governance, welfare politics and inclusive development.
A similar line has been observed in the central government led by Modi. The massive push for infrastructure development, railway reforms, cooperative federalism, development of the North East, Swachh Bharat abhiyan, rural electrification, rationalisation of subsidies, financial inclusion, solar power generation, banking reforms, promotion of entrepreneurship, digital growth, demonetisation, insurance for poor and gender justice are some of the examples of this model of governance.
No government ever realised the power of the "Indian diaspora" in foreign policy earlier, and the credit for this goes to the BJP and Modi. Similarly, it is the present BJP rule which allowed final acceptance of One Rank One Pension for the Army.
In the recent Budget allocations, finance minister Arun Jaitley pegged farm credit at Rs 10 lakh crore, besides hiking budgetary allocation to the agriculture and rural sector by about 24 per cent to about Rs 1.78 lakh crore. He also proposed to create a dedicated micro-irrigation fund of Rs 5,000 crore with the NABARD and setting up of 688 mini-labs in kisan vikas kendras to give a boost to reforms in the agriculture sector.
With a record Rs 48,000 crore allocation for the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) for the next financial year, the Budget aims to increase rural demand and double farm income by 2022.
Based on its growth model and quality of governance, the success of BJP is also backed by the organisational power of the RSS and its affiliate organisations. The presence of RSS has been able to provide a "check and balance" for the party with adherence to the "mass line" in terms of feedback on government policies.
Given the case, it is less likely that the popularity of the BJP and its electoral fortunes are going to be compromised in the near future. And with no serious opposition and limits of regional politics, the coming decades in Indian politics is likely to see a "saffron surge" across India.