Assembly polls in 5 states: The three likely outcomes, and why the BJP has much more at stake
If the BJP performs poorly, the aura of ‘invincibility’ is just one of the things it will lose.
The elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Telangana and Mizoram are crucial — they are widely being seen as the semifinal to the 2019 General Elections.
In Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, there has traditionally been a direct contest between Congress and BJP. But this time, the BSP and Janata Congress (Jogi) alliance in Chhattisgarh and the BSP’s presence in Madhya Pradesh have added a new dimension to the fight.
In Telangana, there is a direct contest between TRS and the Congress-led alliance, which includes Telegu Desham Party and the Left.
In Mizoram, there is a close fight among the Congress, Mizo National Front and Mizo National Conference.
Political analyses of people’s mood in these elections suggest that all the parties involved are facing a tough battle. In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the Congress is fighting tooth and nail. However, the BJP, too, is trying hard to neutralise anti-incumbency after 15 years of its rule.
In Rajasthan, anti-incumbency against the Vasundhara Raje-led government is very high. Her popularity has been eroded drastically, and the Congress is leaving no stone unturned to derive benefits from this.
The advantage Congress has in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh is the presence of many competent and influential faces — something it lacks in Chhattisgarh. In this state, the Congress has no popular leader, though party president Rahul Gandhi is trying hard to woo voters.
In Madhya Pradesh, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is a brand unto himself. In spite of 15 years of anti-incumbency, he is still a popular leader. Along with his own appeal, Prime Minister Modi’s charisma may help him attain victory.
However, this time around in Madhya Pradesh, there has been a visible dip in voters’ enthusiasm at Modi’s rallies. Thus, in these polls, also at stake is the personal charisma of the Prime Minister.
On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi’s acceptability is growing day by day. He is fast coming out of the negative image that has been created of him by certain sections of the media, along with other factors.
In this situation, no party is in the position to confidently claim victory, and many political analysts see the possibility of a mixed result.
What would be the implications of such a result?
For the two national parties, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan are more crucial than Telangana and Mizoram, for they will impact not just their future, but also the emergence and shape of the much-talked-about mahagathbandhan.
Even if the Congress does not perform well in these five states, the leadership of Rahul Gandhi may not be imperiled, for there is no alternative to him within the party. But Congress as an organisation could become weaker, and factionalism and desertions may grow within the party.
However, if the BJP doesn’t do well, questions could be raised on the leadership Narendra Modi and Amit shah.
Also, the BJP cadre stays upbeat because they are confident of the charisma of PM Modi. A defeat could dent that. Alongside, it would destroy the aura of invincibility around the BJP’s ‘election machinery’, which has gained ground after successive poll victories.
The performance of the national parties will directly impact the likelihood of a mahagathbandhan taking shape, and its probable composition.
If the BJP doesn’t do well in these elections, it will energise the Opposition parties and work as a catalyst for the formation of the mahagathbandhan. If the Congress performs well, it will be able to claim a leadership role within the grand alliance at the national level.
If the Congress fails to put up an impressive performance, however, it will severely dent its bargaining abilities at the alliance’s negotiation table.
The political crystal ball of the country is fogged up with too many ifs and buts at the moment. The results of the five Assembly polls will clear up the picture to a great extent, in the process reshaping political equations and resizing political leaders.