How Assembly elections 2017 will change the way India votes in 2019

The Election Commission has announced the dates for the Assembly elections in five states, omitting as of now the crucial election of Gujarat which too is due this year. With over 16 crore voters participating in the various Assembly polls, it’s bound to have a major impact in the long run.

The tumultuous politics of the five states undergoing elections this year – including Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur – is sure to nudge the uncertain times towards a certain political direction, either away or towards the centralising force of the Narendra Modi-led BJP, or the still weakly coalescing opposition to it.

While the individual states have widely differing political climates, with regional stronghold of Samajwadi Party in UP, Congress trying its best to hold on to Uttarakhand, while BJP trying its best to offset the influence of the resurgent AAP in Goa and Punjab, 2017 poll outcomes may show a tilt towards a particular political end, which is either to reinforce the BJP’s hold all over India, or to significantly challenge it by solidifying the regional political camps.

In any case, it makes sense to look at what 2017 has in store in a brief states-wide study of the politics of the Assembly polls and how they would change the course of India’s national destiny.

UTTAR PRADESH

Poll dates: February 11, 15, 19, 23, 27;  March 4, 8

Phases: Seven​

Number of Assembly seats: 403​

Sitting government: Samajwadi Party

Sitting CM: Akhilesh Yadav

SP back in the race: With the churn in Samajwadi Party going decisively in favour of sitting chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, eclipsing the influence of the party patriarch and chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, it is obvious that the new Netaji has brought SP back in the reckoning within what was fast becoming a BJP versus BSP fight in Uttar Pradesh.

However, it remains to be seen what happens to the trademark cycle symbol, as well as the final list of candidates from the SP camp, before a conclusive assessment of SP’s chances in the polls can be effectively made.

Blow to identity politics: Moreover, with Supreme Court ruling that religion, caste, and other overt references to identity cannot be used in the election campaign, the blow would be hard for the parties that have based their voter support on such lines.

The pro-Dalit politics of BSP chief Mayawati as well as the hardline Hindutva-centric campaigns of the BJP are both expected to face the jolt of the judgment, while SP recovers under the development plank of Akhilesh Yadav, leaving behind the caste encumbrances that had so defined the Mulayam era.

Congress: Fronting Sheila Dikshit might have been a stopgap arrangement for the Congress in the UP, since it didn’t want to stake any of the Gandhi family members themselves in a contest it can hardly win. While talks of an alliance with the SP under the steerage of Akhilesh Yadav are still too nebulous for any concrete conclusions as of now.

Issues: As expected, corruption, development, law and order, old feudal structures, caste politics (despite SC ruling) and the impact of demonetisation would be the planks on which the Assembly poll will be fought in UP. Both Akhilesh-led SP and the BJP under Narendra Modi’s stamp are staking their claims to the state showcasing/promising development, or the bijli-sadak-pani agenda, as evident in the PM’s Lucknow speech on January 2.

As Mulayam is sidelined, his stronghold on the old feudal structures that defined politics in the state for two decades, too, would face a challenge. Days of limited largesse from a feudalistic family and some pre-poll populist measures without deep, infrastructural reforms got over when Akhilesh embarked on a series of projects, developing rods, expressways, industrialising and inviting investments in UP, without much ado or noise in the media.

On the other hand, the anti-caste, pro-Dalit movement that marked the greater part of 2016 had propelled Mayawati to electoral dominance once again, though now the effect of the anti-caste wave might have fizzled out.

Effect on 2019

UP is the most populous Indian state and the one with the most number of Lok Sabha and Assembly seats. While in 2014, the Modi wave ensured that 72 out of 80 LS seats went to the BJP, after a campaign that was bloody and riotous to say the least, it was expected that BJP would make a clean sweep even in the Assembly polls.

Mission UP 2017 has been a rallying cry and the polls in Bihar and West Bengal were supposed to be a preparation for the mother of all battles in Uttar Pradesh. Winning the UP is important for the BJP which wants to pitch a simultaneous election in the Centre and the States and impose a presidential style of election all over, in the garb of saving time and money.

However, with the new developments within Samajwadi Party and the emergence of Akhilesh Yadav as the new face of UP’s good governance, this may yet prove to be a difficult task. If the SP wins UP and retains power, it will be a major dent in Modi’s image, since he has been campaigning himself would intensify it in the coming days. Journalists covering UP are already seeing a shadow of Bihar, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal in the UP polls.

This means, the Modi wave might be over as far as the state polls are concerned. Whether this would be a reiteration of Modi in the Centre, regional parties in the states formula, is yet to be seen. Either way, BJP’s goal of painting the entire country saffron would hinge on UP polls.

PUNJAB

Poll date: February 4

Phases: One

Number of Assembly seats: 117​

Sitting government: BJP-Akali Dal alliance

Sitting CM: Parkash Singh Badal

Punjab will see the first time challenger and already the main contender Aam Aadmi Party having a huge sway in the electoral outcome of the Assembly polls, while the Congress and the ruling BJP-Akali combine lose currency in the state.

Disenchantment with BJP-Akali Dal regime: Downslide in the state’s governance, terrible law and order, rising unemployment, drugs problems highlighted by the movie Udta Punjab, farmers discontent and extreme nepotism within the ruling family – the Badals – have together created an atmosphere of vitiated gloom in Punjab.

While the politicised Punjab police has become an extension of the ruling class, corruption in the government quarters has caused an uproar unseen in several years. This, along with crunched welfare programmes, shameless publicity drives by the ruling Akalis and boasting of achievements as debt-ridden farmers take extreme measures, have irreparably dented the image of the BJP-Akali combine.

Rise of AAP: Punjab politics has seen the new star in the horizon that is promising a clean break from the moth-eaten politics of both the BJP-Akali alliance and the Congress under Captain Amarinder Singh. With Delhi under former L-G Jung’s thumb, AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal devoted much of his attention to campaigning for AAP in the state, and their manifesto has been much talked about and appreciated in media and political circles.

Though not without its own share of controversies, particularly one with the broom symbol in the backdrop of the Golden Temple for which Kejriwal had to apologise, the AAP is seen a formidable player, despite just entering the wrestling ring of Assembly polls. Still minus a CM candidate/face, it is expected that AAP is going the whole hog under Kejriwal’s name, and the man may shift base to Punjab if his party clinches the polls.

It must be remembered that in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, AAP had secured four seats, the same number as Akali Dal had won with the Congress securing three and BJP two seats.  

Congress in the lurch: This time, the national destiny of Congress, that’s has been losing its sheen with each passing day and handing over the opposition mantle to smaller parties, is rubbing off on Punjab polls too. Under Captain Amarinder Singh, the dashing former chief minister, Congress is expected to win some, but perhaps not enough to topple the BJP-Akali combine by itself. An alliance with AAP is certainly not on the cards, given the bitter rivalry between the two camps.

Issues: Law and order is at its lowest in several years, with media carrying reports about serious crimes, many committed with complicity of the ruling party and public servants. Corruption and nepotism, particularly within and via association with the ruling Badal family, have been rotting the system, as political capital crumbles. Transfers of government officials who show some spine, perpetual meddling within bureaucracy, “halqa” charges for good posting, unemployment among educated youth, agricultural crisis and a number of other key issues will decide the Assembly polls in Punjab this year.  

Effect on 2019: Getting ousted from Punjab may not impact the BJP directly ​but the political capital it would give to bitter opponent AAP will be a cause for concern. If Arvind Kejriwal manages to win Punjab over, he would once again try his luck in the national arena in 2019, or at least embolden and widen the reach of AAP further cutting into BJP’s and Congress’ parliamentary constituencies.

MANIPUR

Poll date: March 4 and 8

Phases: Two

Number of Assembly seats: 60

Sitting government: Congress

Sitting CM: Okram Ibobi Singh

On the boil since December 9, when the Congress government led by CM Okram Ibobi Singh decided to create seven new districts out of seven existing districts with significant Naga population, Manipur is a bone of contention between the ruling Congress and ingressing BJP. 

Given that the Imphal civic polls saw a close call with Congress winning 12 and the BJP winning 10 seats, held in June 2016, the battle is highly competitive, to say the least.

An India Today opinion poll in October last year predicted that Manipur might be the second Northeastern state after Assam to fall into BJP’s kitty and turn saffron, thereby significantly increasing its footprint in the troubled region of the country.

Congress versus BJP rivalry: However, with the Ibobi Singh government taking a calculated risk and seeking to weaken the Kuki versus Naga rivalry to retain power, the BJP’s efforts have met with a big roadblock ahead. With the Naga blockade since November last year, and increasing cases of violence on the streets, burning of buses and houses and shops, Manipur is surely looking at uncertain times during the two-month buildup to the assembly poll on March 4 and 8.

Economic blockade by Nagas: The two-month-long economic blockade that was suspended on the eve of Christmas had pushed the state on the brink of a severe crisis, with food items, medical supplies, fuel, etc facing an acute shortage. The ruling Congress’ decision to further divide the districts was in the context of Nagas, egged on by the BJP which has a coalition presence in Nagaland, asserting their presence and threatening the hill tribe of Kukis and Meities in Manipur.

Violence and internet shutdowns: Congress government has shut down mobile and internet services a number of times in the troubled districts to curtail spreading of rumours on chat apps like WhatsApp and social media such as Twitter and Facebook. In the wake of the violence that ensued after the government announced its decision to create seven new districts, police personnel were killed, many passenger cars and goods trucks were looted, burnt down while hand grenades were burst.

BJP’s demand for president’s rule: Typically, the BJP has been using the violence gripping the state as an excuse to pitch for president’s rule and dissolve the Congress government of Okram Ibobi Singh. This formula had been used in Uttarakhand as well as Arunachal Pradesh, but with differing outcomes. However, now the the election dates announced, it’s obvious that the pitch battle between the BJP and the ruling Congress is going to reach a peak.

Issues: AFSPA remains one of the biggest stumbling block in the aspirations of Manipuris, along with land reforms for better representation. With the Armed Forces Special Powers Act in place for years now, Manipur has been unable to join the mainstream, and a seething suspicion of the Indian Union has taken deeper root within the region.

Now with BJP entering the fray, it’s bound to get uglier as the party promises an overarching Hindu Indian identity over regional/tribal badges. Much like in Assam and Arunachal, the BJP is eyeing the anti-incumbency of Congress rule to pitch its Centre-state alignment.  Given that Congress is facing dissidence from its own MLAs ala Arunachal, the situation is volatile, to say the least.

Impact on 2019 Lok Sabha polls: In the longer term, Manipur elections, to be conducted in two phases, thanks to the sizeable number of Assembly seats, at 60, and the violence gripping the state, could be a gamechanger in the electoral makeup of India’s Northeast. Whether it falls in the BJP’s kitty, or retains the Congress grip as in Tripura, it would leave an undeniable impression on BJP’s march to rid India of the Indian National Congress.

Moreover, much like in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, regional, hill and tribal identities are likely to get submerged under a new Hindu Indian resurgence in case the BJP clinches the Manipur polls.

UTTARAKHAND

Poll date: February 15

Phases: One

Number of Assembly seats: 70

Sitting government: Congress, BSP, Progressive Democratic Front

Sitting CM: Harish Rawat

2016 marked one of the biggest political crisis in Uttarakhand, when the orchestrated revolt against CM Harish Rawat saw dismissal of the Congress government and the imposition of President’s Rule in the state for two months, before the courts intervened and the CM cleared the floor test by a thin margin.

It is obvious that the rivalry once again is between the ruling Congress and the BJP, which has been eyeing this northern hill state, along with Uttar Pradesh, appointing a slew of important office-bearers from this region, including the Army chief Bipin Rawat most recently.

In addition, the death of the horse Shaktiman in April last year, who succumbed to leg injury inflicted on him by BJP MLA Ganesh Joshi, dominated the national discourse and threw the state in a ugly battle over both the legislature and a major cog in BJP’s gameplan of Congress-mukt Bharat.

Corruption charge against CM Rawat: The last year saw a bunch of Congress MLAs deserting CM Harish Rawat after the BJP, which is also the main opposition, accused him of being hand-in-glove with the mining, land and liquor mafia. BJP did a Parivartan Yatra with biggies like Manohar Parrikar, Ravi Shankar Prasad, among others to drive home the point.

Centre versus state tussle: In retaliation, the Congress did a Satat Sankalp Yatra, and attacked the BJP by accusing it of trying to topple democratically elected governments in the states in its bid to paint the country saffron.

As Rawat accused the Centre of stifling funds for the state, the BJP tried dividing the ruling Congress and compelled a section of MLAs to revolt against the CM. Throughout, the battle for democracy remained one of the biggest issues as Uttarakhand became the crucible through which the BJP tried its backdoor entry into the Assembly, much like in Arunachal Pradesh. 

President’s Rule: On March 18, the situation reached a turning point when nine party MLAs took a stand against Rawat, egged on by Vijay Bahuguna and denial of ministerial berths, or party positions, resulting in the passage of the Appropriations Bill despite the din in the House. As the rebel MLAs and BJP legislators went to Uttarakhand Governor KK Paul to ask the latter that CM Rawat’s government must be dismissed since it was now a minority in the House, things became fluid and volatile. Despite showcause notices to the rebel MLAs over anti-defection law, President’s Rule was imposed citing “constitutional crisis” on March 27, just a day before the floor test on March 28.

Uttarakhand HC reprimands Centre: As Rawat challenged the imposition of President’s Rule in the court, the matter was taken up quickly. The Uttarakhand High Court announced its ruling in May, castigating the Centre for meddling in the internal affairs of a state government and trying to topple a democratically regime. Though a setback for the Centre, and the reinstatement of the Rawat government, Uttarakhand remained volatile throughout, waiting for the 2017 polls to decide its political future.

Issues: Law and order, development and corruption remain major issues on which the Congress and the BJP are fighting it out. While corruption charges against CM Rawat remain, the episode of the BJP interference has left an ugly aftertaste.

Impact on 2019: The main bone of contention therefore is likely to be BJP’s need to have the same party in both the Centre and the state, and oust the Congress in a key state, thereby inching close to its original gameplan of Congress-mukt Bharat. If the BJP wins the Uttarakhand Assembly polls, and post demonetisation, financial muscle will be flexed mostly by the BJP, it would be one big step towards painting the country saffron and redrawing the Indian political map.

GOA

Poll date: February 4 

Phase: One

Number of Assembly seats: 40

Sitting government: BJP, Mararashtrawadi Gomantak Party

Sitting CM: Laxmikant Parsekar

2016 saw major upheavals in Goa, the smallest Indian state that has BJP as the majority partner in a ruling alliance with the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party. While in 2014, the then sitting chief minister Manohar Parrikar relinquished his post in order to become the defence minister in Narendra Modi’s Union cabinet, and has been a controversial leader ever since, there have been tumultuous phases within Goa politics that saw its bipolar politics split into a quadrangular fight between factions and new players.

Split in BJP camp: The ruling BJP saw a factious time with a section led by RSS’ Goa chief Subhash Velingkar rebel against the current CM Laxmikant Parsekar, who’s only a shadow of the former CM and now “super chief minister” Manohar Parrikar. Political equations went for a toss as Velingkar launched Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM), an offshoot from the BJP-RSS combine, which is sure to make a big hole in BJP’s pocket in the Assembly polls, pandering to the far-right side.

In addition, GSM has also joined hands with Shiv Sena to give a tough fight to ruling BJP, which is increasingly feeling the heat from multiple sides, particularly from the spectacular rise of AAP.

Manohar Parrikar: Although the former CM is trying his best to campaign hard for BJP in Goa, so much so that allegations are flying that he is spending more time in Panaji than in Delhi, Parrikar’s sheen as the formidable and incorruptible Goa CM is wearing off. Boasting about surgical strikes and constantly referring to the Indian Army as BJP’s private victory had left a trail of embarrassments for the Goans, who are worried that the cosmopolitan culture of the tiny state is now under threat from hardline Hindutva types.

In addition, Manohar Parrikar has been reportedly losing his temper way too often and snapping at journalists when asked questions about demonetisation, or deaths of soldiers along the border. The fact that he picked a CM in Parsekar to keep the Goa CM seat warm has not gone down well with the Goan public, who see the current CM as incompetent and unable to rein in fascist elements who are raising their heads in the state. It’s not sure if Parsekar will be reinstated as CM if BJP does clinch the Goa polls.

Rise of AAP: The biggest gainer in Goa, much like in Punjab, is the new entrant Aam Aadmi Party, whose CM candidate Elvis Gomes is a widely respected public figure in the state. AAP, under the steerage of Kejriwal, Gomes and Dr Oscar Rebello – a medical doctor and a civil rights activist – has made tremendous progress in Goa, and there is a high chance that the newbie party might just form its next state government in this tiny but symbolically significant state.

Not only has AAP picked an excellent CM candidate, it is fighting a multi-pronged battle against both the ruling BJP alliance, the far-right Hindutva parties such as Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (junior partner in the ruling combine) as well as Shiv Sena, while also staving off the latest offshoot GSM and also the out-of-power Congress.

Gomes is already fighting a recently slapped case of corruption, which has actually backfired against BJP. It is being seen as one more instance of the ruling party’s vindictiveness and its tendency to implicate its political opponents, particularly AAP, in fraudulent and fabricated cases.

Issues: Goa elections will be fought on a number of issues but chiefly Goa’s demography and its cosmopolitan, secular identity is the the biggest bone of contention. AAP’s Elvis Gomes is likely to give out image of the honest, secular, organic leader, who will be a big contrast to the supine Parsekar, the Modi-praising Parrikar and others from far-right, hardline Hindu parties.

Moreover, illegal drug trade, particularly by Russian expats, in Goa has increasingly become a crucial issue. Another matter is addressing the problem of dual nationality faced by Goans. 

Effect on 2019: Although Goa is the smallest Indian state and just 40 legislative seats in the Assembly, there is a major symbolic value attached to this election. This is the only state, apart from Gujarat, where BJP is either ruling or is the majority partner in the reigning coalition. It’s a junior partner in Punjab, where it’s likely to lose. That Manohar Parrikar is losing his sleep over Goa polls and that the BJP has decided to not use Narendra Modi’s image to campaign, is a major indicator that the election could swing either way, and not necessarily in BJP’s favour. The loss, though miniscule in number, would have a significant impact on BJP’s mission to paint the country saffron, because losing its stronghold wouldn’t help the cause at all.

Also read: The choice before Punjab voter isn’t very difficult if it sifts grain from chaff