Why Modi-Amit Shah jodi should lead BJP's 2019 Lok Sabha campaign
Amit Shah was re-elected BJP's national president on January 24 for a full three-year term and he deserves to be appointed again to the post after he completes his first term in January 2019. Reason: not only his largely successful previous term but also the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Shah was elected as the party chief for the first time on August 9, 2014 after his predecessor Rajnath Singh vacated the chair to join the NDA government of Narendra Modi. In this sense, Shah's first complete term has just begun.
The BJP constitution states that "any eligible member can hold the post of president for two consecutive terms of three years each". By this yardstick, Shah's first term will end in January 2016 and he will be eligible for a second term thereafter. The next Lok Sabha elections will be round the corner and the BJP can ill-afford to change horses in the middle of the stream.
Shah has proved his organisational capabilities as the BJP general secretary in charge of Uttar Pradesh by devising a strategy to win 71 of the 80 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Under him as the BJP president, the party performed exceptionally well in the Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, forming government on its own or in alliance. With Shah at the helm, the BJP has become the largest political party in the world, enrolling 11 crore members.
The only setbacks which Shah suffered were in the Delhi and Bihar Assembly elections. But these two states were a different ballgame altogether. The Delhi voters had made up their mind to vote for Modi in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections (the BJP won all the seven Lok Sabha seats) and elect Arvind Kejriwal as the chief minister. In Bihar, on the other hand, casteism, communalism, regressive and parochial politics held sway over the voters.
In spite of the reverses, the BJP stands largely as a strong and united party with a single centre of power. Modi and Shah enjoy a perfect rapport. While Shah allows a free hand to Modi in running the government, the prime minister has complete trust in the party president.
The scenario now is totally different when the Congress-led UPA ruled the Centre for ten years under the then prime minister Manmohan Singh. Only one centre of power existed at that time too but all the power was concentrated in Congress president Sonia Gandhi.
Even vice-president Rahul Gandhi wielded more power than the prime minister. Remember, how the government changed its decision to save convicted lawmakers from disqualification after Rahul termed the ordinance "complete nonsense" in September 2013?
While Modi as the prime minister runs the show now, Manmohan not only owed his position to Sonia but was also subservient to her. Modi has a free hand in running the government and it is largely because of an excellent rapport which he shares with Shah. The arrangement should continue till 2019 when the BJP will again contest the next Lok Sabha elections with Modi as the face.
A dual power centre, when the BJP faces the next Lok Sabha elections, will be against the interests of the party. Moreover, Shah should get an opportunity to repeat the achievements of 2014 but this time as party president.
However, Shah and the BJP are being judged by a different yardstick. Shah's re-election as party president is being questioned owing to the BJP's defeat in Delhi and Bihar. By that standard, Sonia and Rahul should have resigned or should not be re-elected to their posts owing to the drubbing the Congress suffered not only 2014 Lok Sabha elections but also the several Assembly polls thereafter.
Or, didn't the BJP lose the previous Lok Sabha or Assembly elections when the Modi-Shah duo was not at the helm? Didn't the BJP suffer defeat in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections when senior party leader LK Advani was the prime ministerial candidate, giving a second consecutive term to the Congress-led UPA? Or, didn't Rajasthan go to the Congress in the 2008 Assembly elections from the BJP? Unfortunately, Advani and some other senior leaders have become strong critics of the current leadership, but the reasons behind their grudges are not beyond comprehension.
Several Assembly elections will be held in between - crucial among them would be in Assam, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh.
Shah's party is expected to perform much better than in the past in the first four states which are non-BJP-ruled and retain power in the remaining four in order to stop critics from gunning for him.
Any performance below the expectations will be attributed to Modi and Shah. But this should not stop the BJP from giving another term to Shah in 2019 in view of the next Lok Sabha elections.