11 advantages Akhilesh-Rahul alliance has over BJP in UP
Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav emerged as the undisputed Samajwadi Party's leader with the Election Commission recognising his faction as the real party and granting him the "cycle" symbol.
This victory of the UP CM has given a massive boost to the proposed secular alliance.
Reports say this grand alliance would include not only SP, Congress, RLD but also small parties in states like JD(U), Peace Party, Rashtriya Janta Dal, Sanjay Nishad’s Party, Rajbhar Party and the dissident faction of Apna Dal led by Krishna Patel.
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| Today’s Akhilesh has broken this barrier and finds favour with every caste and class across Uttar Pradesh. Photo: DailyO |
Like in Bihar, the basic purpose of this alliance is to check the BJP, which virtually swept the state in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. But in the absence of BSP, it is not at par with Bihar's Mahagathbandhan.
In Bihar, almost all major anti-BJP parties joined hands. Yet, this has potential to propel the election's outcome in a different direction. Let's see how this alliance may get an advantage over the BJP in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election.
1. Clear leadership
There may be little confusion over who may be part of this alliance and which party gets how many seats, but there is absolutely no confusion over who will be its leader and chief ministerial candidate.
It will be but Akhilesh Yadav.
While the BSP too is clear on this front with Mayawati as its choice, there is utter confusion within the party's UP wing over it - BJP supporters in UP don't know who will be their chief-ministerial candidate.
This confusion may mar BJP's electoral prospects.
2. Acceptable leadership
While Mulayam has Muslim and Yadav support, he has never been an acceptable leader for other castes and classes.
Today’s Akhilesh has broken this barrier and finds favour with every caste and class across Uttar Pradesh. His image is like Nitish Kumar, who is acceptable to even the upper castes in Bihar. They may not vote for him, but certainly aren’t hostile to his leadership.
Contrary to this, the BJP doesn't have a single face in UP who can serve as an anchor for all castes and classes in the state.
3. Substantial base vote
While the SP and BSP have their loyal vote bank in the form of Yadavs and Dalits this is not the case with the BJP.
Though it gets substantial Upper Caste votes, the outcome of the last few elections in UP has shown they keep shifting loyalties between one election and the other.
So, the proposed alliance could enhance the SP's base vote while the BJP will not only have to ensure Upper Caste Votes but also have to add to it. This is another disadvantage the BJP has over the prospective alliance.
4. Every party has its pocket of influence
All parties have their sphere of influence - either in a particular region or a particular caste. Like Apna Dal has Kurmi votes, who have a decisive presence in eastern Uttar Pradesh, the RLD has influence over Jats in western Uttar Pradesh.
If all of them join hands, which is the objective of the alliance, then it may harm the electoral prospects of the BJP.
5. Consolidation of the Muslim vote
Strategic voting by Muslims in the state has always been in favour of the candidate most likely to defeat the BJP. This could ultimately result in the consolidation of their vote in favour of the secular alliance.
They have the option of voting for the BSP, but a section of the community has been suspicious of Mayawati's party as it has allied with the BJP thrice in the past.
6. An edge in the battle of perception
Many believe that Akhlesh may have already won the battle of perceptions that drive people's choices in an election. It also seemed to be playing on the minds of BJP leaders.
This alliance between Akhilesh Yadav, Rahul Gandhi, Jayant Choudhary and others, even the BJP leaders believe, would present a formidable challenge in the forthcoming elections.
7. Akhilesh’s image
Akhilesh has the image of a performer who cuts across caste and class. A secular alliance led by him may generate fresh momentum in his favour. The CM has also hard-sold himself as a development man.
Having broken free of the old Samajwadi stamp, and in alliance with the Congress, the UP CM could woo the constituency which was looking for a break from the SP-BSP duopoly.
8. Bahri vs locals
One of the reasons for the BJP’s defeat in the Bihar election was the slogan of Bihari versus Bahri. In the absence of a chief ministerial face promoted by the BJP, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav successfully milched the issue.
Similarly, in UP too there is no chief-ministerial candidate and there are reports that the local leadership has been sidelined in BJP’s decision making.
All important decisions regarding UP are taken by people who are neither from UP nor know it well. Narendra Modi may represent Varanasi in the Lok Sabha, but he is still considered an outsider in state politics.
9. Youth versus elders
It’s seen as an alliance between Akhilesh Yadav, Rahul Gandhi, Jayant Choudhary who are considered gen next leaders.
All of them are youthful when compared to BJP’s top leaders like Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. And hence may attract young voters from all castes and classes.
10. Choice of opponents of demonetisation
Sections of the upper castes, traders and the poor who have been hit by the November 8 demonetisation drive may also turn towards the Akhilesh-led Mahagathbandhan. Mayawati was one of the most vocal opponents of the note ban, but given that the secular alliance has better prospects, such people may move in favour of it.
11. Modi’s unfulfilled promises
In the 2014 general elections, Narendra Modi promised that farmers would earn "a minimum of 50 oer cent profits over the cost of production". Other big promises were to create 250 million jobs over the next 10 years, curbing inflation, crime and corruption.
But it counts demonetisation and the surgical strike as Modi’s achievement, not those big promises which influence people’s everyday life. This too may work against Narendra Modi in UP, as it did in the Bihar Assembly polls of 2015.
It is said that the EC ruling could build momentum in Akhilesh's favour and if that happens, it could generate a surge for the UP CM. But will it happen? All eyes on March 11.