What Rahul-Akhilesh alliance says about the future of Congress party
When Ram Manohar Lohiya and Deendayal Upadhyaya came together in the early 1960s, it was an unimaginable partnership. Two ideologies that were way apart from each other had to come together to achieve a common goal — anti-Congressism.
During the 1967 Assembly elections, they actually managed to achieve a great deal which gave former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee a chance to say at that time that the “United Front of the socialist parties, the Left Front and the Jana Sangh have made it possible that when you travel by Howrah-Amritsar (Punjab) Mail, after crossing West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, you do not have to cross a Congress-ruled state". Vajpayee was speaking at the historic Gandhi Maidan in Patna.
The united parties had managed to uproot the Congress from most of north India and Vajpayee was simply cheering that victory.
The situation right now has exactly reversed. As the Congress and the Samajwadi Party come together to form a pre-poll alliance, it has not only given a boost to anti-BJPism but has also taken the movement to its peak.
If as predicted, in most of the opinion polls, the Congress defeats the Akalis in Punjab and this new alliance manages to stop the BJP from coming to power in Uttar Pradesh, Vajpayee's lines can be easily repeated by just replacing "Congress" with "BJP".
Bihar surely has shown the way, but the Samajwadi Party, which grew into a major force even as the Congress' fortunes have diminished, agreeing to join hands with the Congress may have turned the hands of the clock in the reversed direction.
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| Mulayam Singh Yadav strengthened his Muslim base by projecting himself as the messiah of minorities. |
Lohiyaites had always been at the crossroads with the Congress, and as far as the Samajwadi Party is concerned, there are ample examples how it developed its base by cashing in on the Congress' mistakes.
Mulayam Singh Yadav strengthened his Muslim base by projecting himself as the messiah of minorities by making his government "stand" between kar sevaks and the Babri Masjid even as PV Narasimha Rao failed to protect the destruction of the Babri Masjid.
Mulayam gained so much popularity among the minorities that he even managed to get more assembly seats than that of the Congress in Mumbai in 1995 when the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance was riding high on the Hindutva wave. But his contempt for the Congress was never hidden.
In 1998, when Sonia Gandhi tried to stake claim to form a government at the Centre, it was Mulayam who remained unmoved despite being pursued by his socialist colleague Lalu Yadav to extend support. Mulayam’s main contention was that the Congress can’t be trusted and, given a chance, it will snatch the minority base of the Samajwadi Party.
This mistrust continued till 2004 and 2009 when Lalu Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan joined the UPA while the Samajawadi Party chose to remain outside the government.
Even during the nuclear deal vote in Parliament, the Samajwadi Party supported the UPA but chose to remain outside the government.
Mulayam can be fairly accused of forgetting most of the socialistic ideals, but he has religiously followed one lesson all his life — anti-Congressism. So even though he became a part of the governments under Deve Gowda and IK Gujral, supported by the Congress, he chose not to be part of the UPA (which was headed by the Congress).
The rise of Narendra Modi and the BJP, however, have changed the political scenario and equations.
It seems that has taught some new lessons to all parties and personalities opposing the BJP and Modi.
It has taught the Congress that it is no longer the "big brother" in national politics, at least not in the crucial states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
It has also taught the Congress to make way for other parties and adjust to the current situation.
It has taught Lalu Yadav that rivalry with his socialist "friend" Nitish Kumar can finish his political career and party in Bihar, while Nitish has learnt that the BJP is no more the saffron party under Vajpayee that can change its stand on critical issues to keep alliance partners happy.
Also, Nitish seems to have well understood the fact that he has to make adjustments with Lalu to stop the BJP from overriding JDU’s influence in Bihar, something that the saffron party did to Shiv Sena in Maharahstra.
Lastly, it has made Akhilesh Yadav realise that anti-Congressism practiced by his father will only split minority votes and benefit the BJP.
Unlearning political lessons has worked in the past too. In Maharashtra, when Sharad Pawar, who was then a Congressman, formed a grand alliance with the Republican Party and the Samajwadi Party to take on the Shiv Sena-BJP combine. That grand alliance managed to win 38 out of 48 seats in 1998 Lok Sabha elections.
Pawar had famously told his fellow Congress leaders that alliances only work when all partners realise their actual strength and focus only on defeating the common enemy, rather than trying to just piggyback on each other’s support bases.
Like Bihar, in UP it seems like both Akhilesh Yadav and the Congress under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi understood the ground reality.
Samajwadi party leaders also say that this alliance could work out because the reins of SP are now in the hands of Akhilesh, and not Mulayam.
Akhilesh, like the Congress leadership, has realised that the cadres of both the parties want to form an alliance and because of this willingness it will be less difficult to transfer surplus votes to each other's candidates.
If Akhilesh and Rahul manage to do that, they can achieve what the united anti-Congress parties did in 1967. However, the BJP might find itself on the other side of victory this time around.