How launch of Agni-V will bolster India against China's threats
India successfully test-fired its indigenously built, nuclear-capable missile, Agni-V today. It’s the fifth test of the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) and comes two years after the fourth was held in December 2016.
Soon after the fourth test, it was reported that two more would be conducted before the missile can be fully operationalised. Today’s test was perhaps the first leg of that exercise.
Any nuclear deterrence mechanism can only have teeth if the state has a fully operational nuclear triad that includes the ability to deliver nuclear warheads over the target from ground-, aerial- or submarine-based platforms.
India is in the process of developing a submarine-based platform. While it has few nuclear-capable missiles, the range of these missiles is limited. The country requires a long range missile, too. That is where Agni-V’s presence in India’s arsenal comes in. The countries adverseries — Pakistan and China — are also nuclear weapon states with proven missile capabilities. Agni-V is essentially a China-specific deterrence platform. Its range is more than 5,000km (5,500-5,800km) and it can reach any part of China. Because it can be fired from a site deep inside India (say from central or south India), the missile is useful even against Pakistan.
The one question that arises after the latest test is its timing. Why now? The obvious arguments would be: India is sending a message to its adversaries. Since India’s relations with its neighbours are at an all-time low — with the country emerging from the Doklam crisis (there is a possibility the crisis will see a resurgence), it could be argued that India is indulging in signalling. If a weapon system is available, in a ready position off-the-shelf, it is possible such a weapon is test-fired for signalling.
This happens during the build-up phase of a conflict. Alternatively, the process of weapon development could be hastened if the security challenges are too acute (as in the case of North Korea). For India, both these possibilities do not exist.
It needs to be understood that unfriendly spikes in bilateral relationships have nothing to do with technology development. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has been testing this missile since 2012, with tests happening routinely. So is there really more than meets the eye?
What could be China’s reaction to this test? Normally, Beijing refrains from commenting on such developments, but that wasn’t the case when the Agni-V was tested in December 2016.
At the time it had claimed that such a test amounted to a violation according to a UN resolution — perhaps referring to Resolution No 1172 of June 1998, which condemned nuclear tests by India and Pakistan.
This resolution asked the two countries not to undertake ICBM testing. However, since it is a non-binding resolution, India has done no wrong in test-firing a missile.
It would be interesting to see if India makes Agni-V a part of the upcoming Republic Day parade as it had done in 2013; the world took note of India’s capabilities at the time. This year, too, the Republic Day is a good event for similar strategic signalling.
In 2018, India’s nuclear triad is far from complete. Particularly, its maritime capabilities need more effort and the Arihant ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) platform is yet to become fully operational.
Also, there is a need to develop Agni-V’s multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) version, which would help increase the expanse of India’s nuclear capabilities.
Of late, Pakistan has begun threatening India of a nuclear attack. This is pure rhetoric. But it is important to note India’s ballistic missile defence (BMD) system continues to remain under development and there isn’t sufficient clarity with respect to the purchase of Russian system S-400.
Seen in that light, the success of Agni-V is a feather in the cap for DRDO and their scientists need to be congratulated. Now they must focus on completing India’s nuclear triad.