Abdul Basit is proof India can't trust Pakistan

The Modi government's Pakistan policy is clearly floundering. The latest evidence came on Thursday with Pakistan high commissioner Abdul Basit declaring the comprehensive bilateral dialogue process with India is “suspended”, even as he virtually ruled out the visit by a national Investigation Agency ( NIA) team to Pakistan in connection with the probe into the terror attack at the Pathankot airbase.

His remarks clearly left the government red-faced, coming as they did days after the visit by the Pakistan Joint Investigation Team (JIT).

So much so that it's hard-selling the narrative - through unofficial channels - that the Pakistan envoy had virtually acted suo motu and from a sense of pique for being ignored during the NSA-level dialogue held in Bangkok. The narrative also suggests that it is because Basit's views did not prevail at the Heart of Asia conference in Islamabad - it's on its margins in December 2015 that India and Pakistan announced resumption of their peace dialogue - too contributed to his heart-burn and therefore his remarks.

But it's kind of difficult to swallow this line of Basit being the long-ranger. Diplomats can ill-afford to speak out of sync with their government's views. Neither can a seasoned one like Basit, much as some in the government would like to believe he's being a loose cannon.

New Delhi was quick to take refuge behind the remarks made by the Pakistan foreign ministry spokesperson, again on Thursday, stating that the foreign-secretary-level talks would take place, the statement was as bland as they come where an India-Pakistan dialogue is concerned. However, the Pakistan foreign ministry statement came several hours before the country’s envoy made his remarks.

The fact is, the government finds itself with egg on it face just days after the visit by the Pakistan JIT. Not only has the JIT, as per media reports in Pakistan, described the terror strikes as "stage-managed" but also that it was merely "vicious propaganda" by India in holding Pakistan responsible.

In further embarrassment to the Modi government, Pakistan has also done a U-turn on the visit by a team of NIA to Pakistan in connection with the Pathankot probe. Basit said the visit by the NIA was not based on reciprocity but a spirit of cooperation. All that New Delhi could do was remind Islamabad that the Indian High Commission formally conveyed to the Pakistani foreign ministry that the visit by the Pakistan JIT was on the basis of “reciprocity”.

Perhaps the government should have read the tea leaves before deciding to invite the Pakistan JIT for a conducted tour to probe the Pathankot attack. If the leaked portions of the report are to be believed, the JIT has concluded that it has found no evidence of Pakistan involvement in the terror strike. Surely it was naiveté on the part of the Indian government’s to believe Pakistan would corroborate its contention that the terror attack emanated from Pakistan soil simply if its probe team was allowed to come here.

The recent arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav by the Pakistan authorities, which allege he is a spy, too is a setback for the Modi government’s overtures towards Pakistan. What has further scuppered the attempts to re-engage bilaterally are Islamabad’s claims that Jadhav was picked up from Balochistan, a province where Pakistan has often accused India of fomenting trouble.

India sought consular access to Jadhav who it says is a retired naval officer — Pakistan claims he’s a serving one — over two weeks ago but it’s yet to be given it. China’s recent blocking of New Delhi's bid to have Pakistan-based JeM chief Masood Azhar designated a terrorist by the UN too is seen as a shot in the arm for the Pakistani establishment.

Needless to say, even the initiation of the peace dialogue between the two nuclear-armed neighbours whose relations are fraught with tension and mistrust will go into deep freeze yet again. Never mind the Pakistan foreign ministry assertions on Thursday, and quoted by New Delhi, that modalities for the foreign secretary level talks are being worked out.  

The feel-good gesture by prime minister Modi to stop by in Lahore en route New Delhi to attend the wedding of his counterpart Nawaz Sharif’s granddaughter may have come with good intentions. As also the decision to resume the dialogue process.

But the Modi government will need to evolve a calibrated Pakistan policy with a long-term, concrete vision. Admittedly, there are no quick solutions to the problems that bedevil relations between the two neighbours especially at a time when the Sharif’s government finds itself in a weaker position.

The army remains powerful in Pakistan, with GHQ Rawalpindi having the final say in all important strategic decisions. Engagement with others and not just the Pakistan leadership may be useful if India and Pakistan are to move beyond their blow hot-blow cold relations.