Could the road to the 2019 elections be paved with communal violence?

There have been 15 Lok Sabha elections in India since Independence, of which, in six the Congress won with an absolute majority, and in four, it led a coalition government. 

Thus, altogether, it has ruled for 49 years.

On the other hand, the BJP was in power leading an alliance from 1998 to 2004 and has enjoyed an absolute majority from 2014 till now. 

Thus, it has ruled for 10 years.

What will happen in the coming Lok Sabha elections? And what will happen before that in the coming state Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and some North East states? 

In my opinion, there are two possibilities : 

(1) There will not be the instigation of large-scale communal riots, or (2) There will be.

In case of the first eventuality, the BJP will suffer heavily, and not get more than about 125 seats in the Lok Sabha, clearly insufficient to form a government in the Centre even as a leader of a coalition. It may suffer a similar fate in the state elections.

This is because the vote bank of the BJP is the upper caste Hindus (Brahmins, Rajputs, Banias, Bhumidhars, etc) which are collectively not more than about 20 per cent of the total population – clearly insufficient to win many seats. 

Moreover, 'vikas' has been revealed to be only a jumla, and Ram Mandir has become a non-issue. 

Instead, there is the grim reality of mounting unemployment, soaring petrol and diesel prices (which raise the prices of all commodities including essential foodstuffs as these have to be transported by truck or train), increasing farmers' distress, sinking rupee, etc.

These problems affect everybody, so even a section of upper castes may not vote for the BJP this time, which they earlier used to do.

In such an eventuality, the Congress too will not get more than about 125 seats in the Lok Sabha, as it too has no real attraction. 

Hence, the remaining 282 seats in the Lok Sabha will go to regional parties, who will become the real power, forming a coalition government in the Centre, and installing a puppet Prime Minister (who may be replaced every 6-12 months), and squabbling for lucrative portfolios, particularly finance. 

In such a coalition, the partners will constantly keep bickering and in-fighting, like the Janata Party formed in 1977 after the Emergency was lifted. The coalition partners will only seek power for themselves and their kith and kin, like hungry wolves looting the people like thugs, having no genuine regard for the people's welfare. This is the first scenario. 

But what about the second? Will the BJP readily give up power? After all, it has tasted the fruits of office for only 10 years, whereas its Congress rival enjoyed it for almost half a century. 

The answer is certainly no. Nobody wants to give up power. What could be a way to remain in power? 

The only answer is the second fearful scenario: the possibility of instigating large-scale communal 'riots' as happened in Gujarat, Muzaffarnagar, etc in which the minorities will be at the receiving end.

When communal passions are inflamed, Hindus, who are normally divided along caste lines, tend to get united against Muslims (as happened during the Ram Janmabhumi agitation).

Then, elections will be announced – as was done by the Rajiv Gandhi government after the massacre of Sikhs in 1984, resulting in a sweep in favour of the ruling party.

I have no doubt that the second scenario is shortly going to unfold.