Xi skipping Delhi G20 Summit gives Biden a chance to seduce the Global South

The forthcoming Group of 20 (G20) summit in India presents a pivotal moment for the United States to redefine its global agenda. President Joe Biden, armed with a compelling offer for the "Global South," is already seeking to provide an alternative to China's Belt and Road initiative.

In the absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, the US aims to leverage its World Bank reform proposals and increased funding for climate and infrastructure aid to sway emerging economies in Africa, Latin America, and Asia—precisely the Global South.

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What is the Global South?

• The buzzword "Global South" is gaining prominence in international discourse, but it defies a simple geo-economic definition.
• Contrary to its name, it includes countries from both the northern and southern hemispheres that are underdeveloped and developing.
• While many countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are included, Australia and New Zealand, situated in the southern hemisphere, are not part of the abstract grouping as the classification is based on per-capita GDP.
• India considers itself to be the leader of the Global South.

Biden's agenda

• At the heart of Biden's pitch lies a commitment to enhance the World Bank's capacity and allocate funds for climate and infrastructure development in developing nations.
• This initiative, after Congress's approval, could potentially release hundreds of billions of dollars in new grants and loans for these countries. The U.S. administration is pursuing $3.3 billion from Congress to complement the $600 billion pledged by close allies for the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment—an alternative to China's Belt and Road project.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen while unveiling the goals for the G20 summit said the US wants to gather G20 support for an "equi-proportional" increase in IMF quota funds.

• This falls in line with Biden's policies countering Russia's actions in Ukraine, managing competition with China, and strengthening alliances. While these efforts have garnered support from traditional U.S. partners, they have had a more muted reception in developing countries, including Brazil, India, and South Africa, which maintain a neutral stance amid U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia tensions.
• Recognising the urgency of food insecurity following Russia's exit from the Black Sea grain deal, Yellen called for support for initiatives such as the G20's Global Agriculture and Food Security program and the United Nations' International Fund for Agricultural Development.
• Incidentally, Italy, the only G7 member to be a part of the BRI, is reportedly considering dumping the initiative.
• The US is also looking to address debt relief for economically disadvantaged countries, particularly where China is a major bilateral lender.

Amidst all this, the Indian PM Narendra Modi has put forward a willingness to get the African Union into the G20 fold, to prevent it from slipping away into the Sino-Russian camp.

Where's China in all this?

• According to multiple reports, China's economy has been facing challenges as it grapples with slow industrial growth and a looming property debt crisis while it tries to overcome the COVID-induced slowdown.
• This economic turbulence may hamper Belt and Road spending, creating an opening for the United States to assert its influence on the G20 agenda.

• Zack Cooper, a senior fellow focused on Asia at the American Enterprise Institute, notes that "Xi's absence from the G20 does give the United States an opening."
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a hike in GDP growth in the Global South, particularly in the Middle East, Central Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa, which have been at the receiving end of Chinese money for some time now. Leveraging its control in these nations must be on top of the American agenda.

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