Why Prigozhin's plane crash might be just more than an accident

CIA chief William Burns, in July 2023, said, "Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback," when the Wagner mercenaries, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, carried out their 'mutiny march' toward Moscow.

Fast forward to August 23 at 15:19 GMT, tragedy struck as an Embraer private jet crashed northwest of Moscow while en route to St. Petersburg, claiming the lives of all 10 on board.

The Russian Aviation Authority soon confirmed that among the ten casualties were Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, and his trusted comrade, Dmitry Utkin.

Though labeled an accident, numerous lingering questions in the media have cast doubt on this narrative. Given the Kremlin's history of dealing with opponents, defectors, and dissenters, including the incarcerated Alexey Navalny, who stated in a blog that Putin does not have an appetite for such insults, suspicion has swirled.

A barrage of questions and assumptions, many of which seem valid, have surfaced, leading to speculation as to whether this incident can truly be classified as an accident or if it served as a lesson from the Kremlin to the warlord and his associates, all in one fell swoop.

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Was Prigozhin even on the jet?

• The Russian authorities and media say so. Meanwhile, the Pentagon also said Prigozhin was "likely" to have been on board

• According to defense sources in the UK, the responsibility for the crash is believed to lie with Russia's FSB intelligence agency.

• Ukraine has explicitly denied any involvement in the incident, which would have been the "usual suspect" if the plane blew up over Ukrainian territory or anywhere near it, as Wagners, since 2014, have been pounding Ukraine militarily.

ALSO READ: Putin blames West for June 24 Wagner coup attempt, says it wants Russians to kill each other

What caused the crash?

• Anastasia Bukharova, a resident of Kuzhenkino, 27, recounted the incident on Wednesday when she suddenly spotted the aircraft. She told AP, "And then, unexpectedly, there was a massive explosion in the sky." She further added, "Something seemed to have been violently separated from the aircraft while it was airborne."

• Contrary to earlier reports of a surface-to-air missile, the Pentagon spokesperson, Gen Pat Ryder, refuted those claims and refrained from speculating on whether the crash was an assassination or the result of a bomb.

• A preliminary intelligence assessment from the United States points to an intentional explosion as the cause of the plane crash. They have also ruled out the use of any surface-to-air missiles to blow up the jet.
  The joint trip

• One puzzling aspect of the incident is the presence of the top brass of Wagner, known for their careful security measures, on the same flight

• .The purpose of their collective journey to St. Petersburg remains unknown. 

The aircraft

• According to the Flight, the plane had not been used for some time and was "stationed in Moscow for over a month."
  The prolonged stationing of the jet might have made it easier for somebody to access the plane if they had to plant a bomb.

Putin's statement

• Putin, on Thursday, broke silence on the incident with a very carefully curated statement where any categorical confirmation of Prigozhin's death in the crash was missing.
• He added that Prigozhin was a "talented businessman" with a "complicated fate."

• Sergei Mironov, a pro-Kremlin politician, told the AP that Prigozhin may have made too many enemies in Russia, Ukraine, and the West.

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What next for the group?

• Ukraine's deputy minister of defense, Volodymyr Havrylov, also told Newsnight that Prigozhin was a “very symbolic, charismatic leader”.
• He added that without Prigozhin, Wagner’s fighters would lose confidence and morale, especially in the lower ranks.
• Meanwhile, in St. Petersburg, Prigozhin's supporters erected a makeshift memorial outside the Wagner's headquarters.

In summary, the plane crash raises questions and suspicions regarding its cause, timing, and the potential involvement of the Kremlin.