Himalayas to lose three-fourth of its glaciers in 75 years: Report

A recent report has revealed that if current warming trends continue, glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region could lose up to 75% of their volume by the end of the 21st century.

According to the study conducted by the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), glaciers in the area, including those adjoining the iconic peaks of Everest and K2, are melting at an accelerated rate. This poses a dual threat, leading to dangerous flooding and water scarcity for the 240 million people residing in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan.

In other words, there is a possibility of a sea beach forming near the BKC in Mumbai. People may not need to travel to Chowpati for their morning walk!

Most of the world’s #glaciers will completely disappear at 2°C of warming.

The Alps. The Andes. Patagonia. Iceland. Scandinavia. The North American Rockies. New Zealand.

We’re currently on track for 2.7°C.

- at this temperature, even three-quarters of glaciers in the Hindu… pic.twitter.com/inqUaX2lka

— ICIMOD (@icimod) June 19, 2023

How bad is it?

• Emphasising the urgency of the situation, Philippus Wester, the lead author of the report, said that Hindu Kush Himalayan glaciers in the 2010s have shed ice up to 65% faster compared to the previous decade(2000s).
• The report predicts that at 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius of warming above preindustrial temperatures, glaciers across the area will lose 30% to 50% of their volume by 2100.
• At 3 degrees Celsius of warming, which is the current trajectory under existing climate policies, glaciers in the Eastern Himalayas (including India, Nepal and Bhutan) may experience up to 75% ice loss.

Here's the retreating terminus of the shrinking glacier of Chuma Khang in the Upper Lachen Chu (Tista) Basin, Sikkim, Eastern Himalaya. Climate warming-induced ice mass losses are, on average, much more rapid in the eastern half of the Himalaya than in the western half. pic.twitter.com/cpUtvRjEaD

— Vaibhav Kaul (@Himalayologist) February 15, 2021

• This percentage gets to 80% at 4 degrees Celsius of warming.
• The report highlights the chances of severe flooding in the region's 12 river basins, including the Ganges, Indus, and Mekong peaking around the middle of this century and adversely affecting over 1.6 billion people who rely on these rivers.

Pakistan will continue to face climate change induced disasters like cyclones, floods & heatwaves in greater frequency & intensity. Nature is our only protection as is the case with mangroves which can help break the intensity of cyclones & storm surges & protect shorelines. pic.twitter.com/g0Uzjctxrw

— WWF-Pakistan (@WWFPak) June 15, 2023

• The fast melting of glaciers will lead to an increased frequency of floods rather than a steady water supply.
• Erratic snowfall patterns and reduced snow accumulation have also impacted communities relying on glacial water and snow-melting for irrigation, leading to changes in livelihood patterns and migration outwards.

Improved understanding through satellite data

• During this study, scientists faced challenges in assessing the impact of climate change on the Hindu Kush Himalayan region due to the lack of historical field measurements.

• However, declassified satellite images from the West dating back to 1970, combined with advancements in satellite technology and enhanced field efforts, have provided a more comprehensive understanding of the changes taking place in the region.