What do statistics say about Indian economy under Modi?

The celebrated British statesman Lord Disraeli was supposed to have criticised statistics stating, "Lies, damn lies and statistics."

Yet, statistics are politically important as they give a boost when good, and dismay when they are poor. But there are respected sources in India, such as the Economic & Political Weekly Research Foundation, Mumbai. Their data is interesting.

If we look at the price indices, there has been inflation, but the trends are not uniform. The wholesale price index (WPI), which decreased by -2.1 per cent in June 2015, rose to 1.6 per cent in June 2016.

But price of food articles increased by 12.9 per cent in 2014-15, was down to 6.1 per cent in 2014-15, and further fell to 3.4 per cent in 2015-16.

Interestingly, the cost of fuel and power plummeted; from a rise of 10.3 per cent in 2013-14, we saw a decline of -0.9 per cent in 2014-15, and a sharp fall of -11.7 per cent in 2015-16.

Given the centrality of fuel and power in the economy, this is a welcome trend and leaves a significant impact on the economic development of the country.

However, the index for primary articles grew by 5.5 per cent in June 2016, a contrast to -0.5 per cent in June 2015.

The consumer price index (CPI), which increased by 5.4 per cent in May 2015, rose to 5.76 per cent in May 2016, with the inflation rate inching up to 5.77 per cent in June 2016.

The consumer food price index rose sharply by 7.8 per cent in June 2016, compared to an increase of 5.5 per cent in June 2015.

Anecdotal evidence about the sharp increase in food prices in this period has been widely reported. If we look at the CPI inflation rate for agricultural labourers, this increased sharply to 6.0 per cent in June 2016 - up from 4.5 per cent in June 2015.

Similarly, the CPI inflation rate increased to 6.6 per cent for industrial workers in June 2016, compared to 5.7 per cent in May 2015.

In other words food prices have shown a substantial upward trend.

Macro figures for the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) are also revealing. The IIP which grew by 2.5 per cent in May 2015, decelerated to a rise of only 1.2 per cent in May 2016. The manufacturing segment fared poorly, increasing from 2.1 per cent in May 2015, to a fractionally small rise to 0.7 per cent in May 2016.

The mining segment, which grew 2.1 per cent in May 2015, decelerated to 1.3 per cent in May 2016. The growth of capital goods, which was 3.0 per cent in May 2015, declined sharply to -12.4 per cent in May 2016.

Exports between April-June 2015-16 and April-June 2016-17, declined by -2.1 per cent to $ 22.6 bn ( billion). Imports during the same period declined by -14.5 per cent to $ 30.7 bn.

The trade deficit was a massive -40.3 per cent amounting to $ 8.1 billion.

The sector needs critical attention in the Prime Minister's "Make in India" programme. This is no moment to be complacent about the state of the economy.

It is surely time for independent experts, together with officials, to review the economic trends in the various sectors of the economy.

The poor growth in the manufacturing sector is a bad sign. Its negative impact is evident in the export figures. This is a crucial indicator for the current economic strategy. The large trade deficit is also a dampener. Despite the sharp fall in fuel prices, consumer price indices continue to rise, further fuelling inflation.

These shortcomings need to be discussed widely and intensively, keeping in mind the urban and rural poor who are the most vulnerable.