Budget 2016 is a total disaster
Anyone following Indian defence for 45 years, and who also closely studies our military history 1947-62, learns to avoid psychosis by achieving perfect equanimity. It is the only way to avoid madness created by the unimaginable absurdities termed "Indian defence policy". But on Monday, despite years of training my mind to be calm, I became seriously disturbed by the new Budget.
Projected estimates given two weeks ago by Ajai Shukla, which likely came from his excellent MOD/military contacts, were for $51-billon, 2.25 per cent of GDP, at USD1=INR66. I wrote in DailyO that while this was big step, a lot more was needed.
Indian defence has been ignored for about 29 years, on top of being ignored for 15 years before the 1962 War. It seemed that at last the government had decided to stop the three-decade deterioration, but that much more remained to be done just to eliminate the huge equipment modernisation backlog.
Now the actual Budget allocation is out: $37-billlion at USD1=INR68, and 1.65 per cent of GDP. This the lowest since 1962, when the 1.5 per cent of GDP allocation led to the biggest disaster in independent Indian history. Instead of the modest 18 per cent of government spending under the first estimate, the actual allocation is an unbelievably low 12 per cent. This has been achieved by reducing the capital budget by 50 per cent, to something less than $12 billion at the new exchange rate.
This leaves me no option but to level against the government serious charges of wilful neglect of national security. There is absolutely no budgetary reason why the allocation should not have been 2.25 per cent of GDP with plans to make it 3.5 per cent in five years. The government has, for reasons of electoral politics, chosen to give priority to everything except defence, at a time our national security environment continues to deteriorate. This is wholly unacceptable.
Please let me make clear that my charge is not directed at a particular political party. It is of no interest who leads the Centre. The papers are full of PM Modi, for or against, but I know anything about him or the BJP, or the NDA, or whatever. Since I know nothing, I cannot judge him or his ruling coalition. My use of the word "government" is limited to whoever is ruling.
If the government of India decides, for whatever reason, that there is no threat to Indian security, it should reduce the armed forces to a level that can be adequately funded at 1.65 per cent of GDP. Though I've never worked out the details, intuitively it seems we cannot, then, maintain our armed forces at anything more than 40 per cent of the current manpower and units. This means perhaps 20 divisions with a minimum of extra independent brigades, 20 fighter squadrons, and no more than 30 major warships. Warships of less than 4,000 tons cannot today be considered major.
It follows that this level of forces requires a permanent peace with China. This in terms means giving up our border claims and accepting a secondary, non-confrontationist role in the Indian Ocean. It means withdrawing from Kashmir (though not Jammu and Ladakh). If we leave at Kashmir at noon, by midnight the same day Pakistan will take over and commence executing those who seek independence or union with India.
Can any Indian survive such an agenda? Clearly not. Then why not fund the military so it can meet our stated national security policy? The current force levels, with some augmentation, can suffice to protect ourselves from north, west, and south at 3.5 per cent of GDP.
The current government has my sincere wishes for success. Success, whichever political party brings it, is good for our country. Short of that, it remains painfully apparent that in the matter of defence, this government is doing even worse than previous governments.