Why Modi won't be so excited about BJP winning 2019 elections

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government is probably at its lowest point in terms of perception and controlling the narrative in the last three-four years. The disillusionment and disappointment among a lot of people is real.

The economy has been consistently slowing down over the past six quarters. The government's ability to turn good ideas into bad policies is now well-known, its desire to execute debatable policies is also documented and its hesitation in making a case for big reform ideas has frustrated many.

To top it all, party president Amit Shah is now embroiled in a controversy which could have been handled better. The report may have been a hit-job, Shah's son Jay Shah may well be innocent and his business dealings could be solid on legal grounds but people tend to believe all negative stories about those in power (as they did with Robert Vadra and others). What has raised suspicion is the overall media coverage - or the lack of it. The decision to sue The Wire for Rs 100 crore has further miffed people.

There is a palpable sense of despair that the worst fears about this government - that its top leadership may have succumbed to temptation, it holds enormous power and control over different media outlets and that it bullies and browbeats its political opponents into submission - may indeed turn out to be true. These are not good signs for any political party and the fact that it deals with any criticism with great arrogance and utter disdain only helps to build the case against the party.

This is such a huge shift from 2014 when many were willing to ignore Modi/Shah's many obvious flaws. Many are now impatient, angry and instantly believe the negative stories and jokes about the BJP government doing the round.

The general feeling of being let down by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is gaining ground and no one quite knows how he can change that. Far from changing the lives of the people as promised, Modi has become just like the other politicians, who regularly pull off tricks on them. Far from waiting excitedly to hear Modi's speech, many are now left wondering why his opponents shouldn't be taken seriously.

If Modi, who was given a historic mandate in 2014 and now controls about 18 states (with coalition partners, of course), cannot introduce major reforms (land, labour, education, civil services, taxation) then who can? This is precisely why many voted for Modi but it ended up making them even more cynical about the government and politics.

Sure, UPA's tenure was terrible but this government needs to be judged on its own performance. Sure, the economy may turn around by the next quarter but this government needs to be criticised for the current mess. And yes, one can be optimistic about India's long-term growth while showing disappointment at this quarter's low rates.

Looking ahead at 2019, given that there are still one-and-a-half years left, a lot can change for Modi and BJP - both economically and perception wise. If things don't improve on the ground, the BJP can always invoke "Lord Ram" or realign "lower-caste votes". What is pretty sure is that Modi will not take this political battle lightly.

This is a strange and complex situation in which a party is all but guaranteed to win but has shown in its tenure only incompetence in governance. This is what Bret Stephens, the conservative columnist, calls the political paradox of our times - "A party that cannot lose but cannot also seem to govern".

Also read: Why ‘nudge theorist’ Richard Thaler makes for BJP's poster boy for economics