BJP knows only Modi can help it win Gujarat elections

There is an old saying that when the lion comes out of its habitat, all other animals in the jungle start to hide. The BJP workers often use this comparison for their leader Narendra Modi. The prime minister is to hit the campaign trail shortly and address about 50 public meetings in the run-up to the Gujarat elections. All hopes are pinned on this outreach by Modi to ensure an easy victory for the BJP.

A survey done by ABP-CSDS puts the vote difference between the BJP and the Congress at 6 per cent - with BJP at 47 per cent and Congress at 41 per cent. The same organisation had done a survey in August 2017, when the vote share difference between the two parties was predicted at 30 per cent - with BJP at 59 per cent and Congress at 29 per cent. The energetic campaign by the Congress had made a big difference. Even if the October vote share difference stays the same till the elections, the BJP would have an easy victory. But if there is a further erosion of vote share, the fight could get much closer.

The Congress is trying to bring various disgruntled sections together. There is the Patel section led by Hardik Patel, the OBC section led by Alpesh Thakor, which has merged with the Congress, and the Dalit section under the leadership of Jignesh Mevani. The Congress has its task cut out in managing these groups along with their own Congress workers. The crucial period is about to start when candidates will be announced. The Congress leaders could have a hard time managing these groups and keeping rebel candidates to a minimum.

Another problem area for the Congress is naming its chief ministerial candidate. The party has been out of power in the state for 22 years and an entire generation of leaders has passed away. The present leaders are young and lack administrative experience. The party is divided into different groups without a towering leader. Entering the elections without naming the leader may prove to be a disadvantage. BJP president Amit Shah has already raised this issue a number of times.

On the other hand, the BJP has its own share of problems. An anti-incumbency of 22 years is a big negative. The party has also suffered from weak leadership since 2014. The common man yearns for change provided the alternative is viable. The party has also mismanaged the Patel agitation and hit their support base among the Patidars. The Dalit section is also unhappy with the government. These are problems created by the BJP's state administration.

Two new problems that are hurting the BJP are demonetisation and introduction of GST. The economy has slowed down and the small and informal sector has been hurt the most. The anger among the business class is palpable though the government has been wise to bring about positive changes in the GST structure. How this anger plays out holds the key to the election.

All hopes are now pinned on the prime minister. The master orator that he is, he can sway the electorate towards his party. The Congress is fighting hard and could give better results if it keeps up the momentum till December 14. The crucial phase has begun. The Congress has to ensure that the BJP does not run away with the trophy easily.

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