India must shift the war to Pakistani soil
The situation in Jammu and Kashmir continues to remain tense. Almost each day since the beginning of this year has seen ceasefire violation across the Line of Control (LoC).
Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Mehbooba Mufti continues to talk about dialogue with Pakistan and the Opposition is busy berating the ruling coalition and Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the alleged policy paralysis with regards to reining in the rogue neighbouring country. On the ground, terrorists continue to target security forces personnel, their bases and now even their family quarters - the latest attack coming on the Army camp in Sunjuwan, Jammu.
This year the terrorists seem to be more heavily armed, carrying more ammunition than ever before. Encounters are long drawn and casualties on the side of security forces high.
The terrorists are usually fidayeens, groups willing to sacrifice themselves, looking only to maximise the damage caused to life and property in each such attack.
Whether India chooses to engage in diplomatic dialogue with Pakistan or not, the neighbouring country's policy of using terrorism as a tool of state policy is not going to change. Couple of factors have added to Pakistan hardening its stance on using terrorism against India.
While Pakistan was dependent on US aid, there was a semblance of control over the country by the civilian regime as terrorist activities had to be scaled down in the face of Washington's disapproval. That is no longer the case.
With China being the new benefactor and sponsor, Pakistan has seen active support for terrorist elements both from within the country and Beijing. The repeated blocking of United Nations sponsored sanctions against terrorist leaders and organisations based in Pakistan is just one aspect of it.
But the plot could be more sinister. These elements could actually be finding encouragement to continue destabilising India and scaling up operations in order to tie down Indian troops. This basically translates into China using Pakistan-based terror outfits against India.
Though at this point of time it may not be the avowed policy of the neighbouring countries, but no aspect should be left out from the ambit of probabilities because in realpolitik nothing is impossible.
All countries must realise there is a price to pay if you sponsor terrorism. Violence has a tendency of biting back its sponsors. Any Pakistani strategic affairs expert will tell you - not necessarily on record.
Where does that leave India? Talks will not help. International pressure would get you press but change nothing on the ground. Pakistan has been damned and dragged through fire at international forums and it clearly doesn't care anymore. Pakistani politicians have little say in the country's strategic and military affairs. In the foreseeable future this situation is unlikely to change. No matter who is voted to power, the person would toe the line of the Pakistani Army. What India needs to do is to increase the cost of engagement for Pakistan. There are some ways that could be explored.
India enjoys an edge over Pakistan in heavy artillery that can target areas couple of kilometres inside the neighbouring country. It can be used to ensure that cost of engaging India on the borders remain high. It is not a humane policy to target civilians, but to deter this state-sponsored terror, India could think about this as an option along the border.
The border guarding forces can be equipped with heavier direct fire weapons, supplementing their LMGs and mortars. Usually naval guns and anti-aircraft guns have flatter trajectories - they can deliver the necessary "punch" in targeting terror launch pads and bunkers across the border. This weaponry can be used for targeted firing too. India can light up the entire border, a pre-emptive "response" to counter daily ceasefire agreement violations and targeted killings. Perimeter security systems in our country are mostly obsolete. We need state of the art technology to ensure perimeter security around military/civilian installations. Access control, active denial techniques, decreasing dependence on human elements, security, auto alert, intelligent barriers must be added post-haste to the unwavering brave vigils.
The last option at India's disposal is also the most controversial one. Pakistan must be hit where it hurts the most - on the country's soil. The segregation of good and bad terrorists has a dual facet - what is "bad" for them could be "good" for us. Sort of sponsoring these "bad" terror elements would shift the war to Pakistani soil. Resources that are being used solely for offensive purposes currently could then be called in for "defensive" allocations.
This would increase the cost of engaging India in a proxy war. It will be a proxy war all the same just that it will be a two-way traffic. We cannot have a public discourse on this issue, no government worth its salt can risk it. But then all policies do not warrant public debates and any policy can be scaled up or down depending on its success in the theatre of operation. India cannot continue to suffer and bleed forever. Let us for once see how much Pakistan is willing to pay. What is the cost it is willing to incur in order to continue supporting terror - directly and on the sly.