Cricket World Cup 2015: Why I doubt Australia can beat India today

I must first share my appreciation for the wonderful semi-final gift that New Zealand and South Africa gave to the cricket world. It was unbelievable. I told myself this was the cricket we had waited for. I had backed New Zealand much before the World Cup had begun and I am glad they have lived up to the expectations of their supporters.

I felt sad for South Africa. They had their moments but then you can’t win if you drop catches. For a team that prides itself on high fielding standards, it was a letdown. It took my mind back to Birmingham in 1999 when a dropped catch proved so vital for South Africa. Of course, I won’t say South Africa choked. They lost to a team that played better on the day.

New Zealand now have wait to know the team they play in the final. It is being termed a virtual final. India and Australia have been the pre-tournament favourites  with performances to back them. Australia’s consistency is their strongest point but then India have come back stunningly from the setbacks of the preceding Test and tri-series.

I am convinced that India gained immensely from the experience of playing in Australia for so long. Every defeat had a lesson for the Indians and they absorbed the finer points of the approach to be adopted when batting and bowling on Australian wickets. It has worked in India’s favour and we have seen the splendid transformation in the team with every member realising his role and giving his best to make India a formidable collective force.

India have built their reputation in this World Cup on the strength of their bowlers. You have to take wickets to win matches and the team has understood the mantra to success. India as a team has grown under the captaincy of Mahendra Singh Dhoni and he continues to be critical to the plans. His exemplary calmness in the middle has a positive impact on the players and there is little trace of nerves. I marvel at how Dhoni accepts the challenges and reserves his best for the tough situations.

We know how tenacious Australia can be. They have a history of coming back from the brink. At home, they can be a different force but I have my doubts if they can stop the Indian juggernaut.

I have my reasons to back India as the favourite in the semi-final. The factor that works in India’s favour is the balanced attack. The three fast bowlers have combined superbly and the spinners have looked effective right through. There is actually little to distinguish one Indian bowler from the other because they complement each other well. No team could dominate the Indian attack in this tournament and that, to me, is the reason why Australia must be worried ahead of the contest.

Australia were rattled by the Pakistan attack, especially the pace that Wahab Riaz generated. He was able to expose certain chinks and it is for India to exploit them. Of course, someone will have to produce the speed and intensity of Riaz. If not, the Indian bowlers are adept at striking a nagging line and length. That can stifle the Australians. But the Indian bowlers should not get carried away if they find the wicket helpful.

We can expect a nail-biting finish. The pressure on the teams is going to create such circumstances where the fight will be bitter. India certainly have the upper hand because they are playing like a team. It makes things easy for some individuals who need backing and that can come when the responsibility is shared.

The first eight overs will set the course. India must keep wickets in hand if they bat first. Two wickets in the first 15 overs would mean pressure. Bowling first, if India get to inflict two or three strikes within the first 15 overs, I am sure the team will have the upper hand for most of the innings. The target has to be 275-plus.

The bowlers have not felt the pressure in any match thus far. Hope the trend continues for Dhoni and his brilliant bunch.