Why Pakistan is not taking Modi seriously

An attack on Uri Army base by four militants suspected to be infiltrators from across the border killed at least 17 soldiers on Sunday morning. More than a dozen soldiers are also critically injured. The daring assault has come not long after the Pathankot attack in January this year, when six militants brought the critical airbase to a standstill for four days and killed seven soldiers.

Since May 2002, when 22 armymen were killed in Kaluchak army camp, these types of audacious attacks by militants on Indian army bases had become quite rare. However, this is not so anymore and due to the increasing frequency of fidayeen strikes in the last two years, the Indian Army is losing a larger number of its highly trained soldiers.

It is not that there is only an increase in the number of militant attacks on Indian Army camps, there is also an increasing number of fatalities due to firing across the Line of Control.

According to Uppsala Conflict Data Programme, best estimated fatalities due to cross-border shelling was only one in 2008 and 2009, 20 in 2010, four in 2011, six in 2012, 20 in 2013, but the number leaped to 43 in 2014 and 29 in 2015.

These figures clearly show that after Narendra Modi became Prime Minister, there is no more hesitation by suspected Pakistan-based militants to directly attack Indian Army bases. Not only that, shelling from across the border has also become more lethal. So, Pakistan’s military establishment clearly does not hesitate anymore in challenging India.

This is quite surprising when some one revisits how Modi and the Sangh Parivar had launched an acerbic attack against the Manmohan Singh government for its so-called soft-policy of "keep talking" to Pakistan.

Modi had promised that after coming to power, he will follow a muscular strategy that will frighten Pakistan from supporting Kashmiri militant groups and engaging in cross-border shelling. In the style of Donald Trump, Modi never elaborated on this frequently proposed and heavily-hyped muscular approach.

A few days after Modi’s surprising stopover at Lahore to greet the Prime Minister of Pakistan on his birthday, Pakistan-based militants launched a daring attack on the strategically critical Pathankot airbase. After this embarrassment, India’s highly garrulous defence minister Manohar Parikkar thundered in front of a gathering of army officers, promising to inflict similar pain on the perpetrator.

However, the only follow up by the Modi government on Pathankot was to allow a team of Pakistani officials to visit the airbase; and India is till waiting for a return invitation.

Similarly, this time after the brutal killing of a large number of armymen in Uri, Modi on his Twitter handle vowed to punish those who are behind this "despicable attack".

His confidante on Kashmir issue, Ram Madhav, went one step ahead in clarifying this retaliation strategy: No more strategic restraint; “For one tooth, the complete jaw.”

Modi and his minions are engaged in these tough talks hoping they will be able to keep the hardline support base happy at home. At the same time, they know there are serious limitations in taking any direct military action against nuclear-armed Pakistan. Even a surgical action against militant camps on the other side of the LoC can spiral out of control.

India has to take a huge risk if it ever decides to send its armed forces into Pakistani territory. This limitation was clearly exposed not only after the terror attack on Indian Parliament, but even at the time of the Kargil War.

Thus these blusters by Modi are fast exposing its hollowness in front of Pakistan. Before the election, Modi had made the UPA government’s so-called failed Pakistan policy a major poll plank, but after taking over the reins, he has reduced India’s Pakistan policy to a joke. No one, including Modi, knows what it is.

Manmohan Singh’s Pakistan policy, which was frequently vilified by the Sangh Parivar, was based on two simple principles: Keep talking to Pakistan at various levels even in sensitive periods; and at the same time engage in creating an inclusive and broad international voice against its use of terror groups as strategic assets.

After the May 2014 election, on the policy of talking to Pakistan, Modi has adopted a framework based on whims and self-glorification, not taking careful consideration of institutional experiences and also ignoring the critical stakeholders in the process.

This strategy has been successful in providing a few headlines, but has caused serious damage to the working procedures for engagement the two countries had developed in a very difficult security environment.

The UPA government’s policy of creating a broad and inclusive international voice against Pakistan’s support for terror groups has also been seriously compromised because of Modi’s decision to openly join the US alliance against China in the region. This has brought China closer to Pakistan and India's hope to isolate Pakistan internationally has evaporated.

Modi’s continuing missteps in his bilateral dealings with Pakistan have thoroughly exposed India’s missing policy vis-à-vis its critical neighbour. This has broadened the space for Pakistan to manoeuvre more for its increasing strategic gains.

At the same time, Modi’s hubris in rejecting India’s age-old policy of "non-alignment", and enthusiastically becoming a US ally has given Pakistan the much-needed and reliable support from China.

Thus, Pakistan has become increasingly at ease in not hesitating to challenge India. Its armed forces at the international border at regular intervals provoke India with unprovoked shelling. Its security establishment does not anymore bother to keep its strategic terror assets under leash, rather directly or indirectly encourages them to launch daring attacks on the Indian military establishment, such as the one in Uri.

For this growing confidence of Pakistan to take on India, no one but Modi’s thoughtless diplomatic moves are to be blamed.

Unfortunately for India, Pakistan does not take Modi seriously anymore.

Also read: Uri attack: Options ahead of India and why Pakistan must worry

Also read: Uri attack: Why India can't effectively respond to Pakistan