Russia-Ukraine War: What is happening in Ukraine?
The Russia-Ukraine crisis just got messier. Russia recognised two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine - Donetsk and Luhansk – as independent. Moscow even passed a decree and announced themselves as allies of the separatist regions.
Here are the latest updates:
1. According to reports, Moscow has sent military troops into the two regions as a ‘peacekeeping’ force. Russia’s move has sent alarm bells ringing even louder in the offices of NATO and allies. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy phoned his counterparts in the US, UK and France following Russia’s announcement.
2. Ukraine called back its Moscow diplomat for consultations on February 22, 2022, soon after Kremlin said that if Kyiv cuts diplomatic ties with Moscow, then it would make 'everything even more difficult'. President Zelenskyy was also reported by AFP as saying that they would consider cutting off all ties with Russia.
3. The United Nations called on a rare emergency meeting during the night of February 21, 2022, Monday, following the developments. Ukraine, US and allies all attended the meeting. Moreover, President Zelenksyy reacting to the development said that Ukraine was not afraid of Russia.
“We are not afraid of anyone or anything. We don’t owe anyone anything. And we won’t give anything to anyone,” he said.
4. President Zelenskyy also warned that by forging an alliance with the two separatist regions, Russia may be creating a legal basis for its further military aggression, despite breaking all international agreements. He urged the world leaders to announce strong actions or sanctions against Russia.
5. India was also present at the meeting, and called for a de-escalation of the situation, saying that the world cannot afford a war. The first flight ferrying Indian students back from Ukraine landed on Tuesday, February 22, 2022. India has already called back families of its diplomats in Ukraine.
6. Russia’s aggressions have been met by calls for sanctions in the West. The UK, France and Germany have all agreed to announce sanctions on Russia. The decisions have major consequences as the UK and Germany notably are reliant on Russian energy and gas.
7. According to a Reuters report, the European Union sanctions package (not yet implemented) also includes the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that connects Russia to Germany and can power a lot of Europe. The pipeline has been filled with gas but is not yet operational.
8. On Tuesday, February 22, 2022, Germany decided to suspend the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project with Russia. It had been concerned about the future of its energy supplier if a Russia-Ukraine war breaks out, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz had avoided mentioning the topic in most discussions earlier before the recent decision.
9. The US announced sanctions on the two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and plans to sanction Russia too. The US is currently banning any business activity by its citizens with the two separatist regions and also banning all transactions from the two regions.
10. While an open military conflict has not yet taken place between Ukraine and Russia, with the Russian troops moving into the separatist regions, there is a possibility of that happening soon.
11. Russia’s actions, though violating the Minsk agreement (which among other things doesn’t allow foreign military presence in the separatist regions) are in line with what it did with Georgia. In 2008, Russia recognised the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two separatist regions in Georgia, a former Soviet Union country. Moscow in this case too moved its troops into the region, spelling a short war between the two countries. Using this tactic, Russia was able to set Georgia back in joining NATO, by denying it full control over its own territory.
12. UK’s Health Minister Sajid Javid said that Russia with its actions has clearly said that it is looking for confrontation and not dialogue. Javid also raised concerns that the current situation is as grave as the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, which brought the US and the Soviet Union to the brink of a nuclear war. Even UK PM Boris Johnson said that Russia seems to be bent on an invasion.
13. Speaking of nuclear weapons, Moscow recently carried out its annual strategic nuclear weapons exercises, called Grom or Thunder. Surely the timing and the message to Russia's rivals were clear.
14. Premiers and representatives of various countries including Italy, Estonia, Sweden, Turkey and more condemned Russia's actions with regards to the two Ukrainian territories infested with separatist fighting.
It needs to be seen how far Russia will take the crisis. There is a possibility that Kremlin may be planning a long-drawn-out conflict instead of an imminent war, mostly to tire out Ukraine's allies.