Why India shouldn't rejoice over Donald Trump's attack on 'deceitful' Pakistan
US President Donald Trump’s threat to stop payment to the Pakistan Army for logistical support in Afghanistan has not come as a surprise.
The Trump administration has made no bones about its unhappiness with Pakistan, and the signs were there for all to see. Beginning with the announcement of the new Afghanistan policy in August, Pakistan has been on Trump’s radar. Everyone saw it coming, but perhaps not as the first tweet in the new year. Predictably, Islamabad called in the US ambassador and protested the president’s harsh words.
What President Trump has in mind for Pakistan is not clear. For now he has stopped the money annually given to the Pakistan military for allowing the US forces to use its territory to carry supplies to its soldiers fighting in Afghanistan. Pakistan also allows the US to launch drone attacks from its soil and co-operates with US intelligence agencies in handing over suspected al Qaeda terrorists.
Yet in 2011, Osama Bin Laden was found living in the garrison town of Abbottabad. Pakistan’s ISI plays footsie with the US as and when it suits its interests. But payments were regularly made since 2001 for this help. This is just part of the payment, not all.
Many hardliners in India are delighted and believe New Delhi’s voice is being heard in world capitals. So far, this is not a game-changer for Pakistan. The tipping point, which will force Pakistan to mend its ways, has not yet come. Indeed once Trump announces what other measures he has in mind one will be in a better position to judge. But for now, if it is just funds that will be slashed, it would not mean much.
American financial aid to Pakistan has been steadily dwindling over the years. At one point, Pakistan was the third-largest receiver of funds from the US. Nor will this be the first time that an American administration has withheld aid to Pakistan. In fact, the Pentagon during former president Barack Obama’s term had withheld $300 milllion as military reimbursement in 2016.
In July last year, the Trump administration blocked $350 million. In the 1990s too, Washington had cut off aid to its allay because of Pakistan’s nuclear programme. Pakistan has survived all that.
Today it also has a cash rich all-weather friend to help out if necessary. Pakistan is the centre piece of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s "one belt, one road" initiative. It is pouring in nearly $50 billion for the project. Money, therefore, cannot be the only leverage that the US has over Pakistan. But being on the wrong side of a powerful country and the world's only superpower has its downsides. Many see the action against 9/11 mastermind Hafiz Saeed by the Pakistan government as an indication of things to come. But this is again nothing new.
Once the pressure eases, things will go back to what it was. Saeed remains a major asset for Pakistan’s military and he won’t be sacrificed so easily. How will this affect India? Should New Delhi now get aggressive with Pakistan, cross the LoC and crush terror camps and hope to get away with it? Hardly.
Unless Pakistan provokes New Delhi with a major terror attack, aggressive military action inside Pakistani territory is not the answer. Islamabad will not take Indian action lying down. New Delhi is not Washington and relations with India a different ball game.
Although Indian officials claim that its diplomacy against Pakistan is working well and is having a major impact, this is wishful thinking.
Pakistan is at the receiving end not because of Indian diplomacy, but because of the mistakes committed by the Pakistan military in Afghanistan. Much of the goodwill that was there in abundance for Pakistan during the fight against Russian occupation of Afghanistan has evaporated.
The army’s role in helping the Taliban and the Haqqani network to target American and NATO soldiers earlier had turned the US and its allies against the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi. While in the past, the US and western allies were not willing to give India’s complaints against Pakistan any credence, today because of its own experience in Afghanistan, it is willing to join New Delhi in condemning Islamabad, more specifically Rawalpindi. Beyond that nothing has changed.
It is also a fact that the US President may rant and rave as much as he wants, but finally for the stabilisation of Afghanistan, Pakistan remains crucial. Sooner or later, he will realise what other American leaders before him did. The US will need Pakistan’s goodwill in Afghanistan.
While the US and Pakistan will continue with the war on words for some time, eventually things will settle down. But till that time, the Pakistan military may not be averse to normalising ties with India. Despite the recent fiasco over Kulbhushan Jadhav and angry accusations on both sides, the NSAs of India and Pakistan met in Bangkok. A few weeks earlier, Pakistan army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa had asked lawmakers to normalise ties with India. Was this because he wished to send a signal to Washington?
Because in his talks to parliamentarians, the general also said that Pakistan wanted to live in peace with all its neighbours, including Afghanistan and India. Yet this was followed by an attack on the Loc where an Indian major and three others were killed. Heavy shelling by both sides continue. India also retaliated the death of its soldiers.
The signals from Pakistan are conflicting. For New Delhi, it is important to take care of its security and not depend on anyone else to fight its battles.
Also read: Trump's Af-Pak policy is an opportunity for India