India and Russia must come together to keep a grip on China

The 15th Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral dialogue at the foreign ministers level in New Delhi on December 11 provides an occasion to make a general evaluation of the dynamics at play in this trilateral relationship that is marked by stable India-Russia ties, increased India-China tensions and an upsurge in Russia-China relations.

Talks

Russia dominated the trilateral talks when they began in September 2003, with Sergey Lavrov imposing his masterly grasp of international issues over the triad when he became foreign minister in 2004.

However, with the phenomenal rise of China in recent years, the vast financial resources at its disposal and the unveiling of its geopolitical ambitions across Eurasia, the internal equations within the group have changed. Russia remains a formidable military power but its economy is under stress, while China's diplomatic options have expanded hugely because of its economic power and developing military strength. Russia's relations with the West have sharply deteriorated, compelling it to move eastwards for political and economic space, resulting in an intensified strategic partnership with China. Ironically, this has made it easier for China to expand, including into traditional Russian geopolitical space in Eurasia.

China is also positioning itself as a rival of the US in the Asia-Pacific region by expanding its power base in Asia by bringing Eurasian countries into its economic orbit and making inroads into the Gulf region and key African nations as well. It seeks to establish a G2 in Asia, and if it compels the US to reach such an accommodation, it will be at the cost of both Russia and India. If, after the US/EU policy of browbeating Russia through a policy of sanctions and preventing a normalisation of relations between the two dictated by geographic proximity, economic interests and security considerations, Russia has now decisively strengthened the Asian vector of its foreign policy, it would not want to be thwarted in its quest for a larger role in Asian affairs by a US-China G2.

Russia has a natural resource base in its Asian stretches, military deployments and relationships with countries like Vietnam to have a credible position in the region. It is an active participant in APEC. Even if the US in pursuit of its current policies of placing increasing curbs on Russian power were to leverage its China relationship to checkmate Russia also in the east, any G2 type of arrangement would be manifestly inconsistent with its moves to cultivate India as a counter to China through the concept of the Indo-Pacific, the promotion of trilateral India-US-Japan political and naval cooperation mechanisms and support for a quadrilateral regional dialogue by the inclusion of Australia.

Challenge

Russia faces another challenge from China that has the consequence of outflanking it even in Europe. China's Eurasian ambitions are not limited to Central Asia, they are also directed at Europe through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China's objective is to create an economic corridor to Europe, expand trade and investment ties with European countries, which will, in turn, inevitably lead to increased Chinese political influence in the European continent. Ironically, this dynamics is changing at a time when Russia's own relationship with Europe has rapidly deteriorated and a strong anti-Russian media campaign continues.

China is not only intruding into Russia's sphere of influence in Central Asia but also positioning itself in Europe in a way that undercuts Moscow's European footing. At a time when Russia is unable to manage its relationship with Europe, China has established a 16+1 dialogue comprising of China and 16 Balkan and Central European states - largely EU members - in the context of the BRI and the alluring promise of Chinese investments in developing infrastructure in these countries, especially in the railways and ports sectors. This is already raising concerns in Brussels about the oversight that Brussels can and should exercise on this dialogue, and in the capitals of major western European countries as well about the competition their companies will face from Chinese entities.

Background

In this background, while India and Russia have undoubtedly a shared interest in engaging China, they also need to keep a close watch on its vaulting ambitions and consult each other frankly on what the realisation of its goals would mean for their respective interests. The initial objective of the trilateral dialogue was to concert with each other on the challenges the international community was facing from the emergence of a unipolar world after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the policies of regime change pursued by the US and its disregard of certain established principles of international law such as respect for state sovereignty.

The three countries supported a multipolar international system based on the central role of the United Nations and reform of the international political and financial institutions. They opposed the extraterritorial application of national legislation as well as unilateral sanctions beyond those agreed by the UN Security Council and so on. These objectives remain relevant. To this can be added a joint front against international terrorism ( should China give up its double standards), strengthening cooperation in identified areas within BRICS as well the SCO formats, internet governance, the central role of the WTO in governing international trade, and climate change issues. India and Russia, however, have to be vigilant that the RIC does not become a vehicle for facilitating China's destabilising rise.

(Courtesy of Mail Today)

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