2016 leaves Shivraj Singh Chouhan looking shoddy as Madhya Pradesh CM

The killing of eight alleged SIMI operatives by the police after they escaped from the Bhopal Central Jail remained the biggest story from Madhya Pradesh in 2016 - a year that witnessed even high-profile developments of 2015 like the Vyapam scam slowly peter out of public memory.

Other than this, the year was marked by holding of the Simhastha fair at Ujjain and tension between two khakee outfits, the police and RSS, and a few by elections the ruling party won.

On October 31, eight SIMI undertrials were shot dead by police after they murdered a jail warder and escaped from the prison. The incident created a furore after a series of videos emanated showing the police men shoot at almost dead corpses in the process even mentioning that the recording could get them in trouble.

This was followed by a leaked recording of wireless conversations between police officers wherein it seems that the death of the escaped undertrials was a foregone conclusion. The state government appointed an inquiry by a retired high court judge.

The incident by itself proved to be very polarising with the minority community feeling that the SIMI undertrials were unfairly killed while most in the majority community - as far as reactions on social media went - feeling that this is how "terrorists" should be killed.

The incident also marked the metamorphosis of Shivraj Singh Chouhan who attempted to emerge in the "tough" leader mould - a break from his earlier development oriented, acceptable to all image.

While the state government has been steadfast in refusing to look into any allegations of excesses by the police, much now depends on how "tough" Justice (rtd) SK Pande is in asking questions. Much more however depends on how serious the state government is about accepting and acting upon the findings of the inquiry. If one were to go by previous inquiries by judges, the government has not acted upon the findings of any of them.

There have been some changes in the way jails are managed in the state after the incident, especially since there was a shake up in the jail bureaucracy after the escape. How long this lasts can’t be said. Similar noises were made in 2013 when SIMI operatives escaped from Khandwa jail. In 2016, they repeated the same feat, this time in a more heavily guarded jail like Bhopal.

For the first five months of the year, the state government was engaged in planning and executing the Simhastha fair - held every 12 years in MP at Ujjain. Everything was put on hold and money and man power were dedicated to the smooth and successful holding of the fair. A substantial sum was also spent on branding the Simhastha with advertisements even appearing in foreign lands.

Traditionally, the Simhastha has been the meeting place for the learned, the wise where ideas were exchanged. The state government- with an eye on the RSS bosses went back to this concept and organized a one day meet in Ujjain inviting those who in its opinion made the cut to discuss prevailing issues. The PM too came for it and the program was well received. The BJP leader in charge of the event, Anil Madhav Dave was subsequently inducted in the union cabinet in the next expansion.

The state government has given varying estimates at the amount it spent on organizing the Simhastha. At the Independence Day speech, CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan said that the MP government had spent Rs 3,300 crore while it informed the Lok Sabha that it had spent Rs 4,500 crore. On another occasion, the state government informed the Vidhan Sabha that it had spent about Rs 2,000 crore.

The Simhastha was organised well and except for a storm that lashed the temple town one evening, resulting in the death of six people, it passed off uneventfully.

After the Simhastha, the Congress alleged a scam of Rs 1500 crore in the civil works executed in the run up to the fair and in purchases. The party formed a fact finding team of MLAs that gave a report to the assembly Speaker and has said that it will move the High Court for action since the state government is not taking cognisance of its complaints.

An ongoing issue dominating the politics of the state is the quashing of the reservation in promotions policy of the state government by the High Court in April. State government employees and officials belonging to the SC and ST categories were being given reservation in promotions as well.

The HC struck down the rule under which the reservation was being granted. The state government has appealed at the Supreme Court against the HC verdict. The apex court has not decided on the issue as yet. In case, the apex court upholds the HC verdict, it could dent the BJP’s chances in the SC and ST reserved assembly seats.

CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan also effected a cabinet reshuffle in June. MP became the first state to implement the ‘not above 75’ in cabinet rule by dropping Sartaj Singh and Babulal Gaur from the cabinet. Najma Heptullah, another leader from MP in the union cabinet was dropped on the same grounds and given a gubernatorial assignment.

During the Cabinet expansion, Indore - the commercial capital of MP was left unrepresented largely due to the differences between BJP general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya and Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan. The induction of former Congress MLA Sanjay Pathak in the Cabinet also led to heart burn within the BJP, especially those who were fancying their chances of induction. They would now have to wait till late 2017 and early 2018 when the next expansion is expected.

By elections in the Maihar, Ghodadongri and Nepanagar assembly segments and the Shahdol Lok Sabha constituency exposed chinks in the armour of the Congress. The BJP bagged all these seats by comfortable margins. Two more bye elections are due in the state, at Ater and Bandhavgarh assembly segments. The results of these seats will set the tone for the assembly elections in 2018 as either party is likely to capitalize on the outcome.

The Congress remained largely inactive in the state except during the Rajya Sabha elections in June. Three seats fell vacant in the state of which two were to go to the BJP and 1 to the Congress as per the arithmetic in the assembly. The BJP fielded a party leader as independent bringing about a contest.

The Congress made most of this opportunity accusing the BJP of attempting to buy its MLAs. Former Union minister Kamal Nath camped in Bhopal - something in his own admission he had not done in a long time and when the party won the seat. With advocate Vivek Tankha getting elected, it celebrated as if it had won a seat that was to go to the BJP!

Top Congress leaders are very vocal about a change of guard in the PCC. Incumbent Arun Yadav works hard but has not been able to get all the factions together. In all likelihood, a change could take place after the UP elections. In case Guna MP Jyotiradiya Scindia is brought in as PCC President- which seems likely - the BJP will try and turn it into a contest between a "maharaja and a kisan putra".

There is no guarantee that the electorate will necessarily side with the "kisan putra" as previous such contests have proved. The elections in 2018 will be keenly contested in case the Congress gets in a face that has youth, charisma and a clean slate to take on Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

The police and the RSS found themselves pitted against each other in MP when in September, the RSS’s district pracharak of Baihar was allegedly thrashed by the police. The incident led to the transfer of the IG and SP Balaghat, suspension of Additional SP (ASP), Town Inspector (TI) of Baihar and constables as well as registering of a case of attempt to murder against the ASP and TI.

The police personnel have, however, not been arrested as yet. This had enraged the RSS that even organized a press conference to plead helplessness and demanded intervention from the media in the matter. The attack on the police by the RSS and allegations that they had become a law unto themselves ceased coincidentally after the killing of eight SIMI operatives by the police.

In December, the Congress suffered another setback with the CBI that is probing the Vyapam scam, informing the Supreme Court that the forensic lab in Hyderabad found no evidence of tampering in the hard disk seized from key accused Nitin Mohindra. The SC did not get in the merits of the findings and instead asked the CBI to continue the case in the trial court.

However, the findings came as a victory for Shivraj Singh Chouhan who had all along resisted handing over the case to the CBI but finally agreeing to it in July 2015.

2017 will be a year for the CM to fulfill promises before the state goes into election mode in 2018. For this he needs an administration that will be responsive and deliver on his promises. The CM’s strategy to take the spotlight away from administrative failures has been to make public appearances wherever lapses are reported and be seen as addressing them.

In December, he did this by inspecting a hospital in Bhopal where rats had gnawed on a dead body where he came down heavily on the staff. During the Simhastha he did this by personally erect uprooted tents at the mela venue after a storm. This has helped him contain public anger and maintain his popularity.

But at times, the leaks outnumber the fingers on the hand that can plug them. As such, tightening the nuts and bolts of the administration in 2017 will be the only solution that can deliver victory in 2018.