India needs to keep a careful watch on South China Sea crisis

US secretary of defence Ashton Carter's speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on June 3 is yet another pointer to the simmering crisis in the South China Sea which may be readying to come to a boil this month.

A tribunal of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague is getting ready to give its verdict on a complaint by Philippines over whether some features in the South China Sea claimed by China can give Beijing the right to assert territoriality over the surrounding seas.

Assertion

China has rightfully asserted that the tribunal cannot adjudicate maritime boundaries; these can only be determined through bilateral negotiations between the parties in question.

However, under the UN Convention on the Laws of the Seas (UNCLOS), the tribunal can indeed declare whether a particular feature is an "island" and thus entitled to a 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ), a "rock" which only permits a 12-nautical-mile territorial sea, or a feature visible only in low tide, which does not provide for any maritime zone.

The issue has gained salience because China has constructed artificial islands over some of these rocks and low-elevation features and is claiming an exclusive economic zone around them.

Under UNCLOS, artificial islands and structures like oil rigs do not confer territoriality of any kind.

Also read - How Pranab pulled off a balancing act in China

China says it is not participating in the arbitration, even though the UNCLOS does not confer it any right to exclude itself from the process.

Indeed, UNCLOS says that even if a party refuses to participate, the tribunal can give its verdict which is final and without appeal.

In the build-up to the verdict, China has strongly denounced the process and made it clear that it will not abide by its verdict.

It has questioned the bias of the tribunal and has termed it as a kangaroo court. At the same time, it has built up a military presence in some of the artificial islands.

The US has made it clear that it expects Beijing to abide by the verdict and if it doesn't, the US and its allies will ignore Chinese claims and sail through the waters and fly over them.

Position

The Chinese position on the South China Sea is complicated and there is a touch of mendacity around them. Beijing has not been clear whether it is claiming the islands of the South China Sea, over which it says it has historical rights, or the boundary it has laid out in maps through what is called the Nine Dash Line.

UNCLOS has clear sections on historical rights, and the problem for the Chinese is that since only two of the islands were historically habitable, they cannot prove indisputably that the entire Paracel and Spratly island groups. The Nine Dash Line is even more problematic.

First, no country can assert a maritime boundary; it must be negotiated with the specific neighbour. For example, India and Pakistan have failed to negotiate their maritime boundary because of their Sir Creek dispute.

The Nine Dash Line follows no maritime principle in that many of the areas it claims are beyond 200 nautical miles from the nearest rock or feature claimed by China. In other words, they are simply lines on a map that China insists that the world accept.

Also read - Why the Geospatial Bill is absurd and impractical

Now, not only is China readying to reject the arbitral award, it has hinted that it will establish an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the area. It is not clear whether it plans to set up an ADIZ over the islands it has built, or over the entire Nine Dash Line area.

Laws

An ADIZ has no basis on international law. Yet many states, especially the US, have established them in the name of national security. Civilian aircraft flying through these zones have to notify their flight plan in advance to the country which claims a particular ADIZ.

There is no problem if such a zone is over undisputed territory, but in the case of China, it has previously established one covering the Senkaku Islands it disputes with Japan and there are places where its ADIZ overlaps with that of South Korea.

Many airlines and countries have accepted the Chinese rules, but many others, ignore them. But they are a ready pretext to stage a crisis.

Also read - Tensions in South China Sea and what it means for India

In the past, China has denied plans to set up an ADIZ in the South China Sea. But China is well known for shifting goal-posts at will.

After all, it had given a public declaration in the past that it would end island building in the South China Sea, but as of now it continues its activities.

India needs to keep a careful watch on the situation, especially since our friends the US, Vietnam and Japan want us to play a larger role in the region.

Riling China is fair game considering Beijing's role in South Asia. But we need to always think our game through.

(Courtesy of Mail Today.)