Sasikala has MLAs, O Panneerselvam has the upper hand

The AIADMK is in its deepest crisis yet, a crisis bigger than Jayalalithaa's demise. The Supreme Leader died, but that didn't divide the party. Sasikala Natarajan, a friend and companion for decades, or Chinamma as cadres began addressing her, was the natural successor.

But was she the fair successor?

The question wasn't answered even when she took over the reins of the party as its general secretary. O Panneerselvam, who was appointed by Jayalalithaa as caretaker-chief minister three times in the past, turned out to be a good administrator.

For the new boss-woman Sasikala, a stronger Panneerselvam would have meant a constant threat to her power. For Panneerselvam, a stronger Sasikala meant perpetual blackmail. This balance had to give in, in favour of one or the other, one day or the other.

It seemed Sasikala was winning hands down as Panneerselvam resigned all of a sudden and declared Sasikala would be the next chief minister of Tamil Nadu. But right on the eve of her swearing-in, he sprung a surprise. It was a pleasant one for AIADMK cadres. He said he meditated in front of Jaya's samadhi and his conscience told him to stay on and fight.

Meditation and spirits aside, O Panneerselvam is the best AIADMK has put on display. He was Jayalalithaa's choice. He has done well in that seat, especially recently, when he handled Jayalalithaa's death, Cyclone Varda, Jallikattu protests, the recent oil spill, et al. Nobody knows what skills Sasikala brings to the table.

Also, Sasikala was never loved by cadres. Between the devil infamous as Mannargudi Mafia and the deep sea of uncertainty, people accepted continuity and that's how the resident of Poes Garden was willy-nilly their choice. Was she? The answer is no.

She became the general secretary of the party because she lived in Poes Garden. Not because she won the hearts and minds of party members, who had surrendered to fate.

Jaya was a popular leader and the vacuum she left is huge. She didn't have a family baggage or decided lineage. Her idol, MG Ramachandran, had family. His wife Janaki took over when he died. Jayalalithaa, his most ardent follower, was humiliated. She waited her turn.

O Panneerselvam did not have to wait for long. Sasikala Natarajan couldn't wait for long to grab the chair from Panneerselvam. He played along. The only emotional connect Sasikala enjoyed was her proximity to Jayalalithaa and that she had sacrificed her own husband at the altar of her loyalty to Jayalalithaa. She was not the taker.

But how soon after Jaya, Sasikala became general-secretary and then chief minister designate, strengthened the general impression that she was in it for power. Her husband's irresponsible statements and the sudden arrogance of her extended family didn't help either. Panneerselvam did help by not standing between her and power.

With Sasikala as the party boss, the cadre's thirst for fair and natural succession was satiated. Panneerselvam let her display how she may not be the right choice. No record of service or struggle and a much-tainted past.

Today, she has more MLAs than Panneerselvam. No MLA wants an election right now. Just a year ago, they spent huge sums. They want stability and they see safety in numbers. At this point, the numbers are with Sasikala.

But the people and public imagination, firmly with O Panneerselvam. The party may split. The present may be tense. But the future is the real present.

Tamil Nadu has a new leader, who isn't the shadow of the departed Amma. Tamil Nadu has a new leader, who has come out of the shadow, his own as well. This should bear well, eventually.

This is how democracy fills its vacuums. This is how democracy works. The buses full of MLAs going to five-star resorts isn't democracy at work.

Haven't we seen that too many times, in too many places?

Also read: Last photograph of Jayalalithaa featuring Modi says a lot about Tamil Nadu’s future