Samajwadi Pari-War: Will Mulayam-Akhilesh split SP at the altar of their egos?

For those writing regularly on the affairs of Samajwadi Party, the biggest challenge is to come up with metaphors which aptly describe the situation.

It is such a fast changing scenario, with stories mirroring a potboiler Bollywood masala movie, that those following it closely, by now, must have been given enough ideas that could generate a blockbuster soap opera.

As the fast developing scenario unfolded on Sunday, October 23, by the time the day came to an end, the Samajwadi Party was teetering on the brink of an imminent split.

Sunday was a day of rapidly shifting political scenario in Lucknow, where every hour brought the Samajwadi Party an inch closer to it breaking up, split into Akhilesh and Mulayam factions.

The day began with a meeting of SP MLAs with Akhilesh Yadav. In a move which once again sounded the bugle of war from Akhilesh's side, the UP CM shot off a letter, once again, to sack four ministers including his chacha Shivpal Yadav.

Akhilesh called Amar Singh a "dalal" and said that whosoever is close to him would not be in his cabinet. Even Jaya was axed. This letter once again raised the political temperature of Lucknow to a feverish level. Shivpal and Mulayam went into a huddle and then came the bombshell.

Mulayam Singh Yadav sacked Ram Gopal Yadav for six years from the membership of SP. Addressing a press conference in Lucknow, Shivpal Yadav said that Ramgopal has met a senior BJP leader three times and is only trying to save his family from the looming CBI probe into Yadav Singh scam.

Ram Gopal Yadav hit back by writing a letter to Mulayam Singh. In the letter, he denied all allegations levelled against him and said that "Netaji is surrounded by demonic forces".

He wrote that whether he was in the SP or not, he would continue to support Akhilesh Yadav as his CM and Netaji was his political guru and would always remain so.

In a tit-for-tat move, Shivpal Yadav also shot off a letter and repeated the allegations, Ram Gopal Yadav was accused of hobnobbing with the BJP to save his son Akshay and his daughter-in-law who are involved in Yadav Singh scam from the imminent CBI probe and accused him of taking advantage of Mulayam's largesse.

But the most important question which remains unanswered is: Is Akhilesh Yadav overplaying his hand or will he emerge triumphant in this Yadav clan bloodbath?

Sources close to Akhilesh see this latest round as a political masterstroke. They feel that this reassertion by Akhilesh and his constant refusal to play ball to merger of QED and reinduction of Amar Singh has soared his ratings in the eyes of the public.

They feel that the impression which is going out to the public is of a chief minister who wants to practise clean politics but is constrained by his chacha who is in turn backed by his father.

What works for Akhilesh is the fact that the image of Akhilesh Yadav remains unsullied despite being in power for close to five years. Even the stigma of poor law and order tag somehow never stuck to him.

In fact, he himself was somehow seen as a victim. His supporters feel that Akhilesh is finally wriggling out of his father's shadow and in case of a break-up, he will emerge as an uncompromising leader who was willing to walk the talk.

He will have a clean slate to begin with just before the election and though chances of good electoral performance might not be that bright, he will definitely be the better placed faction of the Samajwadi Party.

But will wily Mulayam let the plot slip away so easily?

There is also a chance that all this could be counter manoeuvred by Mulayam Singh Yadav and the plan is already well in place. According to sources, a plan is well afoot to remove Akhilesh as CM and have him replaced with Mulayam Singh himself.

They feel that this replacement will help Mulayam camp to nip the problem at the source which was fast eroding the authority of Netaji, a scenario which was unthinkable for them four months ago. They feel that if a surgery is not done right now it could be curtains for Mulayam's influence in the party.

Whether a split happens or Akhilesh bows before his father's diktat, is for us to now see. One way or another, October 24, 2016 may decide the fate of UP Assembly election 2017.

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