How Putin failed to take Kyiv: US confirms Russia's retreat from Ukraine capital

When Russia began the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, did you think that Kyiv would stand a chance? Did you ever think that Moscow would lose?

The Ukraine-Russia War has reached a turning point. The battle for Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, the prize for Vladimir Putin’s objectives, is over. And it is not Russia with its massive military force that won; it is Ukraine that has emerged victorious.

The US Pentagon confirmed on Wednesday, April 6, 2022, that Russian forces have all but completely retreated from Kyiv, and also other cities Chernihiv and Sumy.

RUSSIA RETREATS FROM KYIV: Two-thirds of the Russian forces focused on Kyiv are now headed back north to their base in Belarus and Russia. Russia’s retreating backs have also exposed the barbarity left behind – in the form of bodies strewn across the suburbs of Kyiv, some found with their hands and legs tied. Kyiv says it's genocide.

When the war began, it was expected that the Ukrainian military will fold and the President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, will flee. None of that happened.

SO, IS THE WAR OVER? The war is not yet over. While the Russian forces may be retreating from the capital Kyiv and the Ukrainian government doesn’t look to be in immediate threat of being felled by the Russians, Moscow is said to be planning for the next stage of fighting. Russia is also expected to continue raining down missile strikes on Ukrainian cities.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? The retreating Russian forces are expected to regroup and reposition for a fight in the Donbas region in the east and southeast of Ukraine. The US says the Donbas fight may set the tone for what’s next in the war. But they have warned that it’s likely going to be uglier.

THE DONBAS FIGHT TO COME: The retreating Russian forces are likely to be focused on the eastern regions of Ukraine. Several parts of the eastern and southeastern Ukrainian regions like Donbas, Donetsk and Luhansk are jointly controlled by Russian forces and Russia-backed separatist groups.

Currently, 80 of the 130 Russian battalion tactical groups that originally came to Ukraine are said to be operating in the country. 30 Russian battalion tactical groups are said to be operating in Donbas. Each of the groups contains 800-1,000 troops, according to US intelligence.

The Ukrainian government has asked residents in the east and southeastern regions to evacuate and head further west.

Russia is set to continue with Putin’s strategy of weakening Ukraine by causing economic and infrastructural hardship.

THE ANATOMY OF A FAILURE: Russia’s idea of a Ukraine invasion was not supposed to drag on to a war spanning months. Here is a brief on how it failed despite being one of the largest militaries in the world:

• PLAN A

Putin’s Plan A was to capture Ukraine in 4 hours. Yes, the Ukraine war was originally supposed to last only 4 hours. The plan was to swiftly capture the capital city, Kyiv, overthrow the Volodymyr Zelenskyy-led government, and install a puppet regime.

The plan involved taking over the Antonov Airport or the Hostomel airfield in the wee hours of February 24, 2022. A massive air assault was supposed to bring some 1,000 Russian paratroopers to the airport, then some 7,000 other soldiers and their armoured vehicles via transport planes. They were supposed to take the Presidential Palace and announce on TV that Moscow has won.

Plan A failed. Russian helicopters were hit by Ukrainian missiles even before they reached Hostomel. Though the Russians finally managed to take Hostomel, the intended transport planes were unable to land on time as they were also attacked.

There was also an effort to seize the military airbase in Vasylkiv, south of Kyiv. But Russia was met with stiff defence.

• PLAN B

Plan B was to encircle Kyiv. They were supposed to form two rings around Kyiv – an outer and an inner ring (if you are familiar with the Mahabharat, this would be somewhat like a modern-day Chakravyuh). The outer ring would block aid coming to the Ukrainian forces, and the inner ring would block any Ukrainian forces from leaving.

And so, Russia sent a small unit to fight in Kyiv and topple the government. The small unit of Russian military was also unsupported by infantry and air power and soon became targets for the Ukrainian forces. Russia also sent other units through various ways towards Kyiv, but all were stalled either due to logistical and supply issues, or locals blowing up bridges and dams to keep them away. Kyiv is divided into two parts by the Dnipro river, making it easy for Ukrainians to see Russians crossing the river and stalling them.

Remember the 40-mile-long convoy outside of Kyiv? That convoy was supposed to bring supplies to the Russian units closer to the city. However, Ukrainian forces were able to stall the convoy by breaking down the vehicles at the front of the narrow road. Later, they continued harassing the entire belt. Ukraine was also able to keep it out of the Russians’ knowledge that the convoy won’t be moving any time soon.

Experts say Russian forces were trained to fight in open spaces and not in urban warfare, where fighting takes place block-by-block and building-by-building. On top of all, Russia’s failure is blamed on its inability to carry out the most basic military functions like executing the movement of supplies. As Pentagon Spokesperson John Kirby said, the Russian supply unit never did provide any value and aid to the Russian forces assembling near Kyiv.  

In hindsight, it seems like Putin’s whole plan of invading Ukraine was solely dependent on the opposing forces folding at the slightest hint of war. Zelenskyy, however, stood his ground.