Prashant Kishor's UP strategy will harm Rahul's political future

The Congress was swift to prick the trial balloon purportedly floated by political strategist Prashant Kishor on party vice-president Rahul Gandhi's future role as the chief ministerial candidate for 2017 Uttar Pradesh (UP) Assembly election. The party not just rejected such reports but also declared that all its leaders expected Rahul to take over the reins in 2016.

Reacting to reports, former Union minister and senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said on May 2, "I have no idea what Prashant Kishor has said or he is attributed to have said. All I can say is Rahul Gandhi is a member of Parliament from Amethi. Rahul Gandhi is vice-president of the Congress party and we all expect Rahul Gandhi to become president of the Congress party in 2016… Rahul Gandhi obviously cannot be chief minister for 29 states."

Congress workers in Gorakhpur were quick to welcome reports of Rahul being projected as UP CM. They put up a poster, with morphed pictures, depicting the party vice-president as "Singham" who is taking on state CM Akhilesh Yadav, BSP chief Mayawati, BJP state president Keshav Prasad Maurya and AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi.

Whether or not Kishor floated the idea of projecting either Rahul or his sister Priyanka Vadra as UP's chief ministerial candidate, the "leak" certainly has severely dented the party vice-president's image. By one stroke, it has highlighted the futility of pushing Rahul for the prime minister's post, that too against a heavyweight like BJP's Narendra Modi.

Nothing could have been more embarrassing for the Nehru-Gandhi family, whose three members - Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi - have been the country's PM, than these reports. Even if it was Kishor's plan which was nipped in the bud, it was justified in demoting Rahul and these are the reasons why:

1. Reluctant leader

Despite having joined politics more than a decade ago and despite being a three-time Lok Sabha MP (2004, 2009 and 2014) Rahul is still considered a reluctant leader. He is not seen leading the party from the front. As a result, his mother and Congress president Sonia Gandhi has refused to hand over the reins of the party to him as yet despite facing health issues. The Nehru-Gandhi family loyalists have been vociferously demanding the passing of baton to the heir apparent but the doubts over his capability to successfully lead the party is keeping Sonia and her trusted lieutenants from effecting this change. Rahul has rarely shown any streak of leadership. His mysterious vanishing acts are only mocked at, further denting his image.

2. Gains of 56-day sabbatical fading

Rahul had shown sudden changes in his persona after his 56-day sabbatical last year. He had brought with him enough energy, wit and humour to counter a "56-inch-chest" Modi. The Congress vice-president had started using earthy one-liners which stuck at Modi and the BJP. His first salvo was the "suit-boot ki sarkar" jibe at Modi, followed by his remark that the people would reduce Modi's 56-inch chest to 5.6 inches, while he was referring to the contentious Land Acquisition Bill. He also mocked the PM's monthly radio programme "Mann ki Baat" asking Modi to listen to "Hindustan ke Mann ki Baat" instead by directing external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj, Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje and Madhya Pradesh Shivraj Singh Chouhan to resign on former IPL boss Lalit Modi-related issues and Vyapam scam respectively.

However, that spark is fading now. We haven't heard of any new catchy phrases. The initial gusto has got eroded now. Rahul had improved upon his oratorical skills too after returning from his sojourn to the undisclosed destination. Though he seldom uses "bhaiya" now or pull up the sleeves of kurta repeatedly while delivering a public speech, the punches are missing and we hear the same boring style of speech delivery. One wonders whether Rahul needs to go on another sabbatical in the coming days to get rejuvenated?

3. Waning appeal

Rahul has not led the party to any Lok Sabha win. He has neither been instrumental in the victory of the party in any of the state elections. Since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress has managed to win just in Bihar. But that victory cannot be attributed to Rahul - the credit goes to chief minister Nitish Kumar and RJD supremo Lalu Prasad with Kishor being the man behind the scene. The repeated defeats have eroded much of the appeal which Rahul carried initially.

4. No encouraging scenario in home state

Rahul has not been a driving force even in his home state of UP. He mingled with Dalits by eating and sleeping in their houses in a bid to woo them but to no avail. Despite being the party's face in UP, where he is reportedly being projected as the Congress' CM candidate, the party won just 22 seats in 2007 and 28 seats in 2012 Assembly elections. This has put a serious question mark over Rahul's appeal even in his home state. That leads to the question - where will the Congress vice-president fit in if he is considered not capable enough of either being the party president or the candidate for say the PM/CM post? Only the Congress can decide.

5. National Herald and AgustaWestland scams

Whatever remains of Rahul's charisma is currently facing decimation by the fresh scams of National Herald and AgustaWestland cases. Along with his mother, he already is an accused in the National Herald scam. He is out on bail. BJP leader Subramanian Swamy, who has been nominated to the Rajya Sabha in the ongoing session of Parliament, has ensured that the mother-son duo is dragged to the court. Their appearance in court dented their image. They had to struggle to exemption from personal appearance in the court.

At a time when the Rs 3,600 crore AgustaWestland scam is raging in India, Italy and the United Kingdom, BJP MP Kirit Somaiya has alleged Rahul's involvement in it. He has claimed that there is evidence to prove direct involvement of both Sonia and Rahul to the chopper deal. Somaiya said that Guido Haschke, one of three middlemen of the deal whom India wants to quiz, served as a director in 2009 in real estate major Emaar-MGF. The real estate company, according to Somaiya, was promoted by Kanishka Singh's family. Singh is one of the top political advisers of Rahul and is considered very close to him.

Though Kishor has been engaged by the Congress to help it in the UP Assembly elections, but inadvertently he is doing so at the cost of the Nehru-Gandhi family. What Kishor, who had advised Modi in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and Nitish Kumar in 2015 Bihar Assembly elections, is reportedly advising may be in the larger and long-term interests of the Congress which is often accused to be a dynastic party. He may be demolishing the dynasty and attempting to build a new Congress. However, in the process, he is damaging the first family, and particularly Rahul, in the process.