Will Priyanka Gandhi's entry in east UP end up helping the BJP?
Desperately looking to make a mark in Uttar Pradesh this Lok Sabha election, the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may have actually done enough to hand over the advantage to the BJP.
By unanimously deciding to keep the Congress away from a pre-poll coalition, or even a tacit understanding, BSP chief Mayawati and SP leader Akhilesh Yadav have pushed the national party on a path that will not just upset their own apple cart — but will also end up helping the BJP.
Priyanka Gandhi taking charge of Purvanchal, or eastern UP, has the potential to upset several calculations. This development, coupled with Jyotiraditya Scindia being assigned charge of western UP, indicates the Congress means business.
Ever since West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee organised what was probably the biggest ever combined Opposition meet, called the ‘united India’ rally, many experts have been suggesting that such a rainbow coalition, in case it materialises, will be capable of damaging the Congress party's chances as well as make the BJP face its sternest ever test in the 2019 General Election.
It can safely be said now that the Congress is very serious about mounting a serious challenge across the Hindi heartland — the Congress is gearing up for a tough fight in all 145 Lok Sabha seats, 80 in UP and 65 together in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress recently trumped the ruling BJP.
The Congress believes that a clear-cut agenda and a manifesto projecting a Socialist-leaning, pro-poor, pro-farmer image, would help it bag more seats in these regions than it could manage in the entire country in 2014.
Priyanka Gandhi is an articulate speaker — she also seems more rooted and natural than brother Rahul. Supporters see shades of Indira Gandhi in her. Will she take on PM Modi in his turf? Well, neither she, nor the Congress party have anything to lose if the fight indeed happens.
The show of intent by the non-BJP, non-Congress Opposition parties has left the Congress with fewer prospective allies outside the United Progressive Alliance (UPA).
Priyanka may not be able to match the instant connect PM Modi enjoys with his audience, but if she decides to file her nomination from any constituency in eastern UP, it would be symbolism that neither PM Modi, nor Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will be able to ignore.
In such a scenario, she will be the natural face of the Opposition and the SP-BSP supremos must have taken note of that by now.
Of course, now that she is in public life, and the polls are so close, barbs will fly thick and fast. Allegations of Robert Vadra's supposed involvement in corruption and 'family is the party' jibes have already started coming up.
Whether Priyanka can do the trick for the BJP would depend not just on the new Congress general secretary, but also on how the Congress chooses the other candidates and how well it manages to balance caste equations.
The theory doing the rounds, that upper caste votes would automatically shift to the Congress in a tri-cornered contest, doesn’t hold much water.
How this pans out will only be known when the results are out.