How an unpopular BJP will cost Mehbooba Mufti her CM dream
Why is Mehbooba Mufti so reluctant to be the chief minister?
After all, they have the "mandate" to rule, even as per the Abdullahs who are the principal opposition. Her party, the PDP, looks united behind her. Their ally, the BJP, too is willing and anxiously waiting. The alliance was sewn up by her father, late Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, himself. On their own, as late as in December last, both the Muftis, on separate occasions, praised their ally - the BJP in general and Prime Minister Modi in particular - profusely, for the excellent working of the coalition government in the state. After all, the prime minister had allocated for Jammu and Kashmir an unprecedented package of Rs 80,000 crore. Keeping the CM's post, cornering over two-thirds of the Cabinet ministers' posts and all the key portfolios, the PDP also enjoyed a hugely disproportionate share in the coalition. The "Agenda for Alliance" (AfA) too is, primarily, packed with the PDP's own agenda.
What is it then, that persuades Mehbooba to play hard ball? The answer lies in, broadly, two factors at least. The narrower and recent most factor is the death of her father. While Mufti's passing was not all that unexpected, it couldn't have happened at a more inopportune time. The broader and the larger factor is the very context of Jammu & Kashmir's post-accession politics. Let's get the recent most factor out of the way first.
The coalition chemistry
The PDP and the BJP may have swept the Lok Sabha and the subsequent Assembly polls of 2014 scoring their highest ever tally, but their coalition hasn't been, exactly, riding a popularity wave. To be fair, the government they delivered did not get enough time to be judged for its delivery or the lack of it. But then, what is equally remarkable is that few governments have managed to squander their legitimacy among their core constituents, so much and so fast, as this coalition did. The waning popularity was evident in the street as much as it was in the media reportage. But, we all know how politicians, high on a 'historic electoral mandate', take such feedback. More so when they know that the next election is four to six years away (four for the Lok Sabha and 6 for the Assembly).
BJP's harakiri
Small wonder then that it did not matter to the BJP when Jammu went on a general strike barely a month after the PDP-BJP government took over. The largest city in the state, which has elected only the BJP to represent itself at the Assembly and the Parliament, became arguably, the first place anywhere to burn several effigies of the prime minister Modi. In the second week of April last year, for five days on the trot, not an auto ran in the total shut down by the city. The city was seething, not so much at being passed over the sanctioning of an AIIMS but at the deputy chief minister representing the region. He was in the office, ostensibly, to correct the regional imbalance caused by a sordid history of depriving Jammu of its fair share. But, ironically, it was he who was most vociferous in justifying the denial of AIIMS, to favour the Valley. For several weeks, it looked as if the BJP had decided to brazen it out, till better sense prevailed. The damage was, however, done. And AIIMS was, but, one of the several reasons.
PDP's miscalculation
The PDP, meanwhile, doesn't look as willing to antagonise its constituents. The first unmistakable evidence of PDP's mounting unpopularity presented itself in the abysmal turnout of mourners, for a chief minister who died in harness, after six decades in public life. By dragging her feet on the issue of stepping into her father's shoes, Mehbooba is, clearly, groping for a response to this blunt message from her voters. For her, what seems to be sinking in is, that it doesn't really matter what the coalition may have delivered but the perception of what they have not. PDP has been rudely reminded that their campaign and mobilisation was to "stop the BJP". Not to pave BJP's way to power which the PDP eventually did. No amount of concessions and capitulation by the BJP, in the Agenda for Alliance, seem to assuage a thoroughly radicalised Valley.
To expect otherwise, from an electorate that voted in twice as many numbers for the Assembly as they did for the Lok Sabha polls, only to thwart the BJP (and how? BJP candidates lost their security deposits in 33 of the 34 seats they contested in the Valley) was delusional. Mufti, the wily cleric, despite mimicking the Hurriyat agenda in his self-rule thesis, was not spared a rebuff even in his death, by the same people who delivered an enviable mandate to him barely a year ago. So acute was their sense of betrayal in the PDP's power-pact with the BJP.
Chances are that Mehbooba may not be able to win a by-election she needs to win within six months, to remain the chief minister, even if she contests the seat that has fallen vacant due to her departed father. Forget the PDP retaining the Lok Sabha seat that she will have to vacate in turn. No wonder she hasn't yet, formally, taken over as the leader of the PDP legislature party. It is this, basic instinct at self-preservation, which is coming in the way Mehbooba's almost but, so far, not quite as powerful instinct for power. The compelling predicament is as to how much of future can, or should, be traded for the present.
Writings on the wall
It is clear as daylight that any short-term elections to the Assembly now will lead to a rout for both, the PDP as well as the BJP. The National Conference and the Congress know this only too well. Which is why, having smelt the blood, they are asking for fresh polls instead of offering help to either of the two, to form a viable government. Eventually, it is the fear of such a rout in the fresh polls to the Assembly that might persuade Mehbooba to take on the mantle of running the government, even if yet again with the BJP. But, she will do it neither so easily and nor so soon. Mufti Mohammad Sayeed's failure to sell the coalition to his people basis the AfA, gives Mehbooba a pretext to demand additional sweeteners. She is already asking for more. She also knows that there is a lot more that can be squeezed out of the BJP.
Transfer of the ownership of power-projects from central government owned NHPC to the state government, howsoever pernicious a proposition, is considered a low-hung fruit. After all, it is already promised in the AfA. Likewise, the review/removal of AFSPA, though politically an expensive proposition for the BJP, isn't entirely impossible either, given the prevailing preponderance of "statecraft" over all else, at the very apex of the Party. That too, incidentally, is promised in the AfA. The BJP may have thought that these promises will remain just that - promises. Mehbooba now wants an iron-clad bank-guarantee on these post-dated cheques. The fear is that she might get what she is asking for. After all, the BJP has a "track-record" which it can be "trusted" to live up to. But, it is not going to end just there. When she, eventually, does lead the coalition, she will do so as a big favour to the BJP. In return, the BJP may have to kiss goodbye to whatever few crumbs they had in the earlier coalition.
The BJP ministers were largely inconsequential earlier. They may well become invisible now. Rumour has it that a berth to one of the PDP MPs in the Union government is already under consideration. All this is one-way traffic. The BJP, needless to say, has no demands to make of her and, much less, any expectations either. If you thought that the BJP had hit the political rock-bottom in the state of Jammu and Kashmir with the AfA last year and now there was no way but up, you will be surprised. This year, they have begun to dig.
What about the larger context, the post-accession politics of the state, you may ask. Trust me, right now, you don't want to sink your teeth into that morsel too. Some other time, maybe.