An uncertain legacy: Who will finally win the Tamil political mantle?

The silver lining in the murky drama behind E Palanisamy winning the trust vote in the Tamil Nadu Assembly is the likelihood of strengthening of national parties like BJP and Congress in the state.

The public disgust at the machinations of the jailed Sasikala in having her puppet in office has reached its zenith. Social media messages are spewing venom and banter against the "Mannargudi gang".

Sasikala’s action in bringing back her nephews in the AIADMK - both enjoying the reputation of thugs and facing several criminal charges - has riled the people.

The Tamil political tug of war is not over yet. It is anybody’s guess how long Palanisamy will last in office with the two nephews of Sasikala breathing down his neck and the public anger rising.

O Paneerselvam is also reasserting his strength and the party is most likely to see a split sooner than later.

The time is ripe for the entry of national parties, especially the BJP. Its leader and PM Narendra Modi enjoys unprecedented popularity in the state. The proverbial iron is hot for a strike.

Tamil Nadu has been in the grip of Dravida Kazhagam politics for long. Far too long.  Starting with the anti-Hindi, anti-Brahmin movement led by EV Ramaswamy Naicker in the 1960s, politics has been dictated by parties that were born out of this movement. He was an atheist.

Combined with this is the unique history of Tamil Nadu where power has been in the hands of personalities connected with the film world.

Beginning with the capture of power by the DMK in 1967 (CN Annadurai became CM and died in office in 1969), film personalities have had an unbroken rule.

Annadurai was succeeded by K Karunanidhi, an acclaimed scriptwriter and orator. He was succeeded by matinee idol MG Ramachandran, who broke away from the DMK to form the AIADMK.

MGR’s mantle was inherited by Jayalalithaa, a heroine who paired with MGR in several hits, including the Tamil remake (Chandrodayam) of the English film Roman Holiday.

Naicker stoked the anti-north Indian fire among Tamils. When the British left, he famously declared that Tamils had been orphaned and he marked the Indian independence day as a day of mourning and hoisted black flags.

The anti-north Indian movement took a virulent anti-Sanskrit and anti-Brahmin tone. Temples were desecrated. To this day, there is a temple of Lord Ganesh in Madurai where the idol's head was broken by DK activists.

However, a section opposed to the anti-national ideology of DK broke away, led by Annadurai, who formed the DMK in 1949. The rise of Dravida politics coincided with the decline of the Congress in the state. The split in the Congress at the national level left the Tamil Nadu unit in a state of division.

On several issues, Tamil Nadu took a stand separate from the national position. Much before the Mandal Commission came, Tamil Nadu had 69 per cent reservation in admissions and jobs. It continues to have this percentage in reservation, including for minorities and other groups.

On Sri Lanka and IPKF operations, the state views were contradictory to the nationalist position. While the leaders at the helm tried to strike a balance, the fringe groups held sway over cadres. Public opinion was hardly ever respected.

Reservations saw a steady exodus of educated youth from the state. Despite boasting of some of the best educational institutions, Tamil Nadu lagged behind in almost all social indices.

Corruption was accepted as the way of politics. Several writers in the past have tried to explore the reasons behind the vice-like grip of the film world on the Tamil psyche.

The hysteria one witnessed at the illness and death of MGR is hard to believe. Even for Jayalalithaa there was a massive show of emotion. Whether it was orchestrated or not is a matter of debate.

But, it is noticeable that there were no tears and chest-beating screams when Sasikala was convicted and later arrested. The contrast between the surrender of Jayalalithaa a couple of years ago and Sasikala now was too obvious to be missed.

During the entire drama of the succession war in Tamil Nadu, intellectuals, former bureaucrats and popular film personalities became vocal and spoke against Palanisamy taking over the reins of the state.

They supported Paneerselvam as the better candidate. There were innumerable messages seeking President’s Rule in the state.

What gives hope for the advent of national parties in the scene is the fact that there is no tall leader from AIADMK to step into Jayalalithaa’s shoes. Karunanidhi is 92-93 years old and is hardly expected to step back into active politics.

His heir apparent Stalin does not have the stature or public standing that his father had. And the intra-party feud in DMK arising out of sibling rivalry (Karunanidhi has six children from three wives) is sure to wreck the party.  Still, Stalin has a reasonable chance of donning the Dravida Kazhagam political mantle.

Tamil Nadu has another unique aspect. It accepts and extols people from other states, sometimes even those who cannot speak Tamil. Ramaswamy Naicker was from Kerala and in fact made disparaging remarks against Tamil.

MGR was from Kerala, Jayalalithaa was from Karnataka, so is Rajinikanth, two famous Kollywood actresses, both in politics now Khusbu (aka Nakhat Khan) and Nagma are north Indians. In fact when Khusbu started acting in Tamil films, she was dubbed. 

BJP, under the leadership of Modi, can make a grand entry into the state. With a strategic campaign and strong local leader projection, Tamil Nadu will not take long to bloom a lotus. As of now, it is advantage BJP.

For the Congress too it could be revival time. Tamil Nadu has always been a great Congress bastion. Leaders like K Kamraj, GK Moopanar among others, have nurtured the party to great heights. If the party can identify an effective leader, it has a good chance of revival in the state.

Also read: Why Sasikala can't replace Jayalalithaa and rule AIADMK