India's Pakistan Policy is stuck in a revolving door

For three decades now India has been trying to devise a "Pakistan Policy". We almost play to a script which is made in Pakistan, whether by its army or its "democratic" government. A terrorist attack happens and we cancel the next scheduled talks only to restart them at a later date. So Pakistan is confident that no matter what, India will come around and talk to them. The Zia doctrine of "clandestine operations to weaken India while simultaneously appearing to seek a durable peace" is alive in its letter and spirit.

However, when this government came to power most Pakistan observers believed that there will be a Pakistan Policy and a robust one at that. That’s why when India called off Foreign Secretary level talks, scheduled for September 25, 2014, over Pakistan inviting Hurriyat ahead of the meeting, it was seen as a paradigm policy shift. Most analysts and observers remarked that it won’t be business as usual and India would not tolerate any interference in its internal affairs (read Kashmir). The step was in consonance with BJP’s hardnosed policy on Pakistan and Modi’s own stated position that unless Pakistan mends its ways there should be no talks.

This, however, seemed to be a flash in the pan moment. Under the pretext of SAARC Yatra, our foreign secretary S Jaishankar was sent to Pakistan. Pakistan foreign secretary Aizaz Ahmed after the meeting told NDTV that resumption of talks shall happen soon. Barely days after this meeting, Pakistan once again upped the ante by inviting separatists of all hues (some well known terrorists too) to Pakistan Day celebrations. The move flummoxed the Indian establishment. This being an official event, India had to not just send its minister of state for external affairs and a former Army chief to the event but also eat humble pie in being unable to stop the separatists being treated like coveted guests at the same place.

Our Pakistan Policy seemed to have come full circle.

And then Ufa happened. It is believed that the Indian side asked for a meeting of the two PMs. Pakistan’s coercive diplomacy seemed to be working. India was ready to come back to the negotiating table and without any preconditions. The joint declaration at Ufa turned the tables in India’s favour. It was clearly seen as a victory for India. There was no mention of the K word and it addressed India’s concerns on terrorism. Even before ink had dried on the declaration paper Pakistan’s NSA made all kinds of pronouncements which said there would be no talks unless Kashmir figures in them. The vitriol of his tongue was matched by a show of firepower by its rangers and army.

There was unprovoked and unusually heavy shelling at not just the Indian posts but even villages and towns close to Lone of Control (LoC) and international border (IB) which continues till this day. Thousands have been forced to move to safer places and many have lost their lives and livelihood. Incidents of terrorism are on the rise as is the ISIS, Pakistan and LeT flag waving have now become commonplace in Kashmir.

In the last one month alone, more than 12 terrorist attacks have taken place in J&K apart from one in Gurdaspur. The Udhampur attack proved to be fatal for two of our BSF jawans who lost their lives but more fatal for Pakistan because one of the fidayeen (a Pakistani national named Naved) was caught alive. While he was being interrogated, Pakistan was erasing all proof his existence.

A senior Indian journalist (Harinder Baweja) spoke to Naved’s father who accepted that he is the "unfortunate father". India still maintained that NSA level talks would happen as scheduled. India wasn’t playing the Pakistani game.

In a move which smelt of extreme desperation Pakistan did not send an invite to the J&K Assembly speaker to attend the Commonwealth Regional Parliamentary Assembly to be held in Islamabad from September 30 to October 8. India gave a measured response to the provocation and said it would not participate unless J&K Assembly speaker too is invited.

Meanwhile, India kept asking for confirmation on dates for NSA level talks. Caught in a bind, Pakistan despite not wanting to attend the talks for fear of being confronted by a live proof (and not a dossier) in the form of the captured Pakistani terrorist, accepted August 23 as the date for NSA meet.

Just when nothing seemed to have deterred India from calling off the NSA talks, Pakistan pulled out its last card. Phone calls were made late last night to Mirwaiz and others requesting them to join Sartaj Aziz for a meeting. It remains to be seen how India reacts to this development. The NSA meet should go on, Naved should be asked to narrate his story directly to Mr Aziz. Hurriyat leaders should be allowed to see and hear the news of this within the comfortable confines of their palatial homes in Kashmir.