How North Korea's new nuclear missile will make our world more dangerous
The two-month-long relative nuclear silence from North Korea has been broken dramatically, posing an enormous threat to the world as we know it. Pyongyang has just tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) called the Hwasong-15 — the longest-range and highest-ever trajectory achieved so far, capable of reaching any point in the United States mainland, according to reports.
The missile has landed in the waters 210 kilometres west of the Aomori prefecture of Japan, in its excusive economic zone, while South Korea has done a “precision missile strike drill” in the surrounding waters to send a message to its North Korean rival.
The North Korean state-owned channels declared the Hwasong-15 missile as the “most powerful ICBM” tested carrying a “super-large heavy warhead”, reaching a height of 4,500 kilometres, with a range of 13,000 kilometres, making the “whole of US mainland” within its grasp.
Naturally, North Korean head of state Kim Jong-un has flared up the US-NK tensions, with President Donald Trump giving a slightly muted reaction this time compared to his “fire and fury” jibe in September this year.
Nuclear provocations
This spectacular show of force and technical flourish from what in the popular political imagination is a “rogue country” that has put the world as we know it in grave danger, threatening its continuing existence with the dare-it-all game with the US president Trump, comes after a lull of about two months.
The provocations hint at North Korea not giving up developing and flaunting its high-grade weapons system in the hands of the unstable and volatile Kim Jong-un, not even listening to its neighbour and quasi-ally in China.
While both Russia and China have been trying to assuage North Korea to stall its weapons tests and comply with international norms, Pyongyang and Washington are locked in a battle of nuclear nerves, as it were, with the former demanding that the US must display its deterrent capabilities in order to elicit any diplomatic response from it. But given all the baring of fangs, as it were, from North Korea, we need to ask if nuclear deterrence really works, and why hasn’t the concept prevented Pyongyang from fiddling with ferocious nuclear technology custom-made for weaponry.
Pyongyang has stated that Hwasong-15 “meets the goal of the completion of the rocket weaponry system development”. North Korea has claimed that its aim of becoming a nuclear state has been accomplished with the Hwasong-15 testing, and therefore its nuclear dare at the US must be taken seriously.
It must be noted that experts on Pyongyang say the regime considers its nuclear arsenal as the only shield against being run over by larger forces such as the US, leading to another Korean war but with little chance of a post-communist Russia coming to its aid.
Will there be war?
Ballistic analysts and military experts in the US have mostly agreed that the latest ICBM tested from Pyongyang could reach Washington DC and any other part of the US, therefore pushing the Trump administration to a wall of nuclear confusion and fears of possible miscalculation.
The only solace is the estimation that despite North Korea saying the Hwasong-15 was fitted with a “super heavy nuclear warhead”, for it to travel for 13,000 kilometres, the weight needs to be lighter. However, the damage that can be caused by any warhead reaching US mainland would be nothing short of a catastrophe, that could result in a high-voltage, protracted war that could go nuclear.
That the chances of an all-out war have been ratcheted up with the latest ICBM testing is without a shred of doubt, though it’s difficult to separate the bluster from the brawn in case of Pyongyang. South Korean intelligence, according to reports, have conceded that North Korea is developing their nuclear capabilities faster than expected, though in case of Hwasong-15, Seoul has said that there’s the possibility that the technology was at the beginning stage, therefore “not capable of re-entry”, once launched.
However, CNN has quoted South Korean unification minister Cho Myoung-gyon as saying that the possibility of Pyongyang declaring the completion of their nuclear programme by next year cannot be ruled out.
Though the US is strengthening alliances in the Pacific Ocean, particularly the Quad with Japan, Australia and India in the partnership, the threat of a nuclear showdown with North Korea cannot be contained by any such maritime arrangements.
Unlike the July and September tests, the Hwasong-15’s reach makes it particularly potent, though telemetries are yet to be finished to make complete assessment.
Suffice to say, the rate at which North Korea is developing its missiles and nuclear-enabled weaponry, the question of a non-military channel to control Kim Jong-un becomes all the more important. The United Nations Security Council will be meeting tomorrow, November 30, to discuss how to deal with the latest challenge thrown at the world.
Paranoia must be tempered
It’s true that the global fear and paranoia over a nuclear winter brought about by a US-North Korea confrontation has escalated, but this is precisely the time to hold our horses.
Let’s remember that China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin have both batted for diplomacy and tempered dialogue with Kim Jong-un, who’s the kid with the nuclear toys, recently called “short and fat” by Donald Trump on Twitter.
Let’s also not forget that the US is sitting on the maximum number of nuclear weapons capable of destroying the world many times over, followed by Russia, China, France, Britain as well as India and Pakistan, and any nuclear war would drag many of these powers into it, making it a danger that cannot be comprehended in its sheer destruction.
Compared to today’s cutting-edge weapons, the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were limited in their destructive potential. North Korea has conducted its 15th missile launch with the Hwasong-15, and once again Japan is caught in the net as the missile splashed down in its oceanic backyard.
While the world has been brought to the brink a number of times, most memorably during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, we cannot afford to go the same way with the weapons at our disposal.
Also read: Why no one is stopping North Korea from firing ballistic missiles