Can Nitish make a Modi out of Lalu?
Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi could be like chilli and cucumber — as different as chalk and cheese — an odd couple incarnate. However, the two owe significant parts of their pasts — and perhaps future as well — to each other.
After all, Nitish Kumar was having a dream run in Bihar when BJP started pitching Narendra Modi as their prime ministerial candidate in the summer of 2013. Nitish had to storm out of his 17-year-old cosy alliance with the BJP, a decision that led to his electoral slide in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The consequences forced Nitish to further stoop and embrace Lalu Prasad against whom he had waged a two-decade long battle. From being a man who ruled with brute majority in the company of the BJP to one who barely survived by bowing to Lalu, the last two years have been the worst period of Nitish's dream decade.
Narendra Modi may have had the latest — if not the last — laugh between the two in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls when the BJP-led NDA bagged 31 seats and Nitish's JDU was reduced to just two, but it was the Bihar chief minister who dominated the battle against Narendra Modi from November 2005 — when he edged out Lalu’s RJD to become a BJP-backed CM in the state — till May 2013 when he snapped ties with the BJP.
As long as Nitish remained with the BJP alliance, it worked brilliantly for him. The BJP followed whatever Nitish said in Bihar. It was at Nitish’s prodding that the BJP kept Narendra Modi, then a popular Gujarat chief minister, away from Bihar. Though Modi was much in demand in Bihar, he was not allowed to campaign even once in Bihar during the two Assembly polls in 2005 and also in the 2009 Lok Sabha and 2010 Assembly polls. The only time Narendra Modi was allowed in Patna was in June 2010 when he participated in the BJP’s national executive in the city. Even then, Nitish with his hawkish secular posturing, almost derailed the alliance.
Years later, when Bihar is gearing to see another epic battle between Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi-led BJP in the run up to the October-November Assembly polls, the CM knows he has a mountain to climb. And unlike his bete noire Narendra Modi, Nitish Kumar has his back against the wall, being in a must win situation. A defeat in Bihar can be a shock for the BJP; but it will move on. For Nitish Kumar, however, an adverse result can bring the curtain down on an illustrious political career.
It is not for nothing that Nitish Kumar has joined hands with Lalu Prasad, a man he fought against for 20 years. Besides Lalu, Nitish has also stitched an alliance with the Congress, which he had opposed all through his career till he broke up with the BJP in 2013.
Nitish Kumar still has the best governance credentials in Bihar, being the best known chief minister, who is rightly credited for turning around Bihar and transforming the state from being a hopeless island into a land of opportunities. But the jarring irony is that Nitish does not have the massive caste-support that Jungle Raj mascot Lalu can boast of, or the committed cadre base that BJP wears on its sleeves.
However, with both Nitish and Narendra Modi carrying the tags of good governance on their sleeves, the bigger dilemma for Bihar CM seems to be that he cannot afford to be seen batting for scam-tainted Lalu Prasad.
The BJP, on the other hand, has discovered a spunk in its gait. Unlike in the Delhi polls, where the saffron party had declared Kiran Bedi as the CM candidate, apparently to create a buffer between Arvind Kejriwal and Narendra Modi; BJP does not need any such cushion in Bihar where the party seems confident of repeating its 2014 feat.
Nitish too is acutely aware that he would be judged against the prime minister’s performance. Modi may not have delivered everything that he promised, but his appeal still gets attention in Bihar. Modi’s Bihar visit on Saturday, which was largely seen as having turned the momentum in BJP’s favour, once again proved the PM's charm and influence on voters.
Against Modi, Nitish knows he can stand a chance only as a development icon. After all, Mr Good Governance was a sobriquet originally coined for Nitish Kumar in Bihar till the Modi from Gujarat sauntered in with his condescending claims and usurped the title.
Though he needs Lalu for his Yadav votes, Nitish obviously knows he can outsmart the BJP only with his progressive, development-orientated and no-nonsense persona that matches Narendra Modi's, someone he was pitted against in the company of Lalu Prasad, who seems to be everything that Nitish isn’t.
Like legendary fast bowlers, Nitish Kumar has hunted in pair all though his career. Nitish has always succeeded in using alliance partners as catalytic agents to multiply his electoral impact. For 17 years, Nitish prospered in the company of the BJP. But his vote base shrunk to 16 per cent when he contested 2014 Lok Sabha polls without — and against — the BJP. Many still see the 16 per cent as a testament of Nitish Kumar’s excellent credentials as it fetched him more than five times the votes as the mere three percent presence of his Kurmi community in Bihar. However, the number is still inadequate for someone who can only be the chief minister of Bihar. So he needs friends. Now, the bigger question is, will Nitish be able to make a BJP out of Lalu in the run-up to the Assembly polls?
But despite his dependability, Nitish Kumar is often described as a human smartphone; one which can operate several apps simultaneously. But, this time, the challenge seems bigger than ever before.