Nitish Kumar as PM? Not quite and definitely not yet

This apocryphal story dates back to the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. The NDA campaign was being led by its prime ministerial aspirant, LK Advani, and few were convinced about his chances. Plans were already being drawn up for the next round and jockeying had begun within BJP to be the PM-candidate-in-waiting.

Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh and even the "unelectable" Arun Jaitley though they stood a good chance. But everyone knew that Narendra Modi with his swagger stood the best chance though several questions remained about his acceptability in the coalition era.

NDA leaders outside BJP too fancied their chances and Nitish Kumar also felt he was a suitable man. The Akalis were hosting a big rally in Ludhiana and wanted the entire galaxy of NDA leaders to turn up. Nitish was unwilling because of "that man". Eventually he was cajoled by associates and due to an invite from Advani whose support was essential if ever Nitish secured half a chance.

Modi learnt of this and discussed his response when face-to-face with the Bihar strongman. A journalist who happened to be around said: "What’s the big deal, walk up to him, hold his hand and hoist it for the crowds to see." Modi did that and the beaming photo of the two made political history but did not reveal the indignation of the two towards each other. The picture also did not notice the smoke from both ears of Nitish!

After having lost out to be PM, Nitish has acquiesced to another attempt. His proposition of the need for anti-BJP parties to work together and usher in Sangh-mukt Bharat, the campaign by his party associates prior to that and the renewed bid has evoked sharp reaction and unfortunately from the JD(U)’s ally – the RJD.

Former union minister and senior RJD Lok Sabha MP (five-term) Mohammad Taslimuddin remarked that Nitish Kumar "is not PM material" and he is "day-dreaming” because a person who "could not provide sushashan or good governance in Bihar, would not be able to run the country efficiently".

Another stormy petrel of the RJD, former union minister and senior RJD leader Raghuvansh Prasad has come out against Kumar and criticised his cross-country voyages because this distracts from the main task on hand – running Bihar effectively. Prasad has been quoted as saying that Nitish Kumar is becoming an "obstacle to the possible unity of secular forces for Mission 2019. His selfishness is weakening the unity of the Grand Alliance." Is there any merit in what his detractors have said?

Part of Nitish Kumar’s problem is naiveté and believing that after the victory in Bihar, he would become the god of the anti-BJP parties. Before checking whether there was any probability and over-assessing his party’s electoral clout in Assam, he gave a call for a mahagathbandhan in the state.

The failure to sew an anti-BJP alliance should have served as warning but he still jumped the gun by his Sangh-mukt Bharat call, a slogan whose sub-text was that he would be the PM candidate.

There are four things that go against Nitish Kumar’s project PM. Firstly, the Bihar mahagathbandhan was a state-specific project and before parliamentary polls every satrap will enter into alliances at the state level only when they assess that it’s absolutely essential for political survival. No national level anti-BJP platform can be viable unless strung together on a political issue – like anti-Congress parties did in the 1970s.

At the moment, despite exhibiting draconian tendencies, the Modi regime has not yet resorted to the kind of measures taken by Indira Gandhi. People’s anger is also nowhere comparable to 1974 when the students’ agitations were launched in Gujarat and Bihar.

Secondly, Nitish Kumar does not have a national party and has to contend with the fact that no anti-BJP front can be formed without including Congress irrespective of who leads it. It's true HD Deve Gowda became prime minister as did IK Gujral – a very fine man but whose electoral constituency did not go beyond India International Centre. But these two reached the position as a result of post-poll pacts.

Nitish Kumar is undoubtedly trying to fashion himself after VP Singh and forge an alliance – uniting a section of the Janata Parivar and bringing along regional parties. But, it must be recalled, Singh had an issue – "corruption in high places" as euphemism for Bofors scam. And he ran this for three years before the polls.

This brings us to the third point – the absence of an issue to turn the tide in his favour. At the moment, Nitish is trying to convert prohibition into his nationwide agenda. But this is a dangerous tread. He is justifying his decision in Bihar by saying that abolition of alcohol is part of the Directive Principles.

The argument is hazardous for two reasons. Firstly, prohibition violates rights of people, leads to abnormal situations by creating an illegal liquor trade network (in most places in Gujarat there is even home service of the choicest brand) and is bad economics.

Secondly if you use the cover of Directive Principles to justify prohibition, it will be impossible to counter the votaries of ban on cow slaughter if they wish to use this argument ("prohibiting the slaughter, of cows and calves and other milch and draught cattle" are the exact words in the Constitution).

Modern politicians need to question Directive Principles for being what TT Krishnamachari called them: "a veritable dustbin of sentiment... sufficiently resilient as to permit any individual of this House to ride his hobby horse into it." 

But Nitish is using an extremely elitist argument – the poor do not know how to lead their lives and have to be nudged into saving themselves. Please empower them to decide better for themselves but don’t decide for them. He is using the same argument of his main adversary – the BJP which has always had the habit of deciding for the people.

Finally, any alternative to BJP has to be both ideological and programmatic. Nitish will have to identify an issue and raise a demand which catches the BJP in the horns of a dilemma.

For a brief period in 1990, VP Singh, who Nitish Kumar is seeking to emulate contained the Hindutva bandwagon with the Mandal rath.

The Bihar chief minister has to think of an issue which resonates among people and not raises their heckles. Just raising a demand for Nitish as PM will not make his case.